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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 02nd of July 2021
 
Morning
Africa


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“The dissonance was most intense right around the peak - you could mention these horrific economic prints and people would just laugh at you, wild-eyed, and tell you none of that mattered anymore.” - Icharus: @coloradotravis
World Of Finance


“The dissonance was most intense right around the peak - you could mention these horrific economic prints and people would just laugh at you, wild-eyed, and tell you none of that mattered anymore.” - excerpt from ‘Icharus: a Monetary History of the Early 2000s’

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"Have you ever climbed a mountain in full armour? That's what we did, him going first the whole way up a tiny path into the clouds, with drops sheer on both sides into nothing" - Peter Shaffer, The Royal Hunt of the Sun
Misc.


“Have you ever climbed a mountain in full armour? That's what we did, him going first the whole way up a tiny path into the clouds, with drops sheer on both sides into nothing.
For hours we crept forward like blind men, the sweat freezing on our faces, lugging skittery leaking horses, and pricked all the time for the ambush that would tip us into death.
Each turn of the path it grew colder. The friendly trees of the forest dropped away, and there were only pines. Then they went too, and there just scrubby little bushes standing up in ice.
All round us the rocks began to whine the cold. And always above us, or below us, those filthy condor birds, hanging on the air with great tasselled wings....
''Four days like that; groaning, not speaking; the breath a blade in our lungs. Four days, slowly, like flies on a wall; limping flies, dying flies, up an endless wall of rock. A tiny army lost in the creases of the moon.”

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Forty years ago Doug Scott CBE and that other icon of mountaineering, Chris Bonington, made the first ascent of The Ogre (7285m) in the Karakoram.
Misc.



Their climb extended the boundaries of what had been achieved before at that altitude. 

But it was the subsequent descent from the summit in the dark, turning a catalogue of disasters that would have defeated most people, into an epic which has since entered mountaineering folklore.  

It was 24 years before The Ogre was climbed again.

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5-FEB-2018 :: [The End of] Halcyon Days These became known as the “halcyon days,” when storms do not occur.
Misc.




Wikipedia has an article on: halcyon days and it reads thus,

From Latin Alcyone, daughter of Aeolus and wife of Ceyx. When her husband died in a shipwreck, Alcyone threw herself into the sea whereupon the gods transformed them both into halcyon birds (kingfishers). 

When Alcyone made her nest on the beach, waves threatened to destroy it. Aeolus restrained his winds and kept them calm during seven days in each year, so she could lay her eggs. 

These became known as the “halcyon days,” when storms do not occur. Today, the term is used to denote a past period that is being remembered for being happy and/or successfuL


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Octavio Paz Here
Misc.



My steps along this street

resound

in another street

in which

I hear my steps

passing along this street

in which

Only the mist is real

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Octavio Paz The Street
Misc.



A long and silent street.

I walk in blackness and I stumble and fall

and rise, and I walk blind,

my feet stepping on silent stones and dry leaves.

Someone behind me also stepping on stones, leaves:

If I slow down, he slows;

If I run, he runs.

I turn:

nobody.



Everything dark and doorless.

Turning and turning among these corners

which lead forever to the street

where nobody waits for, nobody follows me,

where I pursue a man who stumbles

and rises and says when he sees me:

nobody.

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Echoing Mao’s comments in 1949, Xi said Communist party’s victory “showed the world that the Chinese nation had stood up — the time when the Chinese people could be bullied by others was gone forever”. @FT
Law & Politics


Xi Jinping marked the centennial of the Chinese Communist party’s founding on Thursday with a nationalistic address in Beijing, warning that any infringements on the country’s sovereignty would be met by a “great wall of steel”.
But the Chinese president’s hour-long address unveiled no new initiatives or timelines for the party’s most important policy objectives, such as reunification with Taiwan. 

Xi focused instead on the party’s role in accomplishing “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”.
“We must uphold the firm leadership of the party,” Xi said. “China’s success hinges on the party.”
Xi is widely regarded as the country’s most powerful leader in decades and appeared on the rostrum of Tiananmen gate, where Mao Zedong declared the establishment of the People’s Republic of China 72 years ago

The president wore a grey Mao suit, setting him apart from other senior party cadres dressed in western business suits and ties.
Echoing Mao’s comments at the same spot in 1949, Xi said the Communist party’s victory “showed the world that the Chinese nation had stood up — the time when the Chinese people could be bullied by others was gone forever”. The party, he added, remained “the backbone of the nation”.
Xi’s speech was the culmination of a series of celebratory events that began on Monday with a mass performance at Beijing’s Olympic stadium.
His administration has routinely marked patriotic anniversaries with large parades and military displays, including the 70th anniversaries of the party’s victory over its Nationalist rivals and the end of the second world war.
This week’s events commemorating the party’s centennial were the first since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in Wuhan 18 months ago. 

The party has hailed its success in containing Covid-19 as evidence of the “superiority” of its political and economic systems compared with those of western democracies, despite criticism of its early handling of the health crisis.
Xinhua, China’s official news agency, said 70,000 people attended Thursday’s ceremony. 

Most were government and party officials, soldiers, employees of state-owned enterprises and students.
The crowd was largely subdued but roared to life when Xi said China “will not tolerate sanctimonious preaching from those who think they have the right to lecture us”. 

The Chinese president added that reunification with Taiwan remained “a historic mission and unshakeable commitment of the Chinese Communist party”.
The Financial Times reported this week that the US and Japan have been secretly conducting joint war games aimed at repelling a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which has been self-ruled since the Communist party’s Nationalist rivals fled to the island in 1949.
Thursday also marked the 24th anniversary of China’s resumption of sovereignty over Hong Kong from the UK.
The handover is traditionally remembered with large protests by the territory’s pro-democracy camp. 

But Hong Kong police refused to grant protest organisers permission to gather this year.
Dozens of leading democratic activists are in prison awaiting trial on charges under a sweeping national security law imposed on the territory last year by China’s parliament.
Security across Beijing was also tight in the run-up to the celebrations. Journalists covering Xi’s speech were forced to quarantine for 24 hours in advance and had to take two Covid-19 tests before being bussed to Tiananmen Square at 3am.
Those admitted to VIP areas close to top party leaders had to undergo week-long home quarantines ahead of the event.

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Xi Warns China’s Foes Will Break Against ‘Steel Great Wall’ @bpolitics
Law & Politics


President Xi Jinping struck a defiant tone in a speech marking the Communist Party’s 100-year anniversary, calling China’s quest to gain control of Taiwan a “historic mission” and warning the country’s adversaries to avoid standing in the way of his government.
In a nationwide address from above the portrait of Mao Zedong in Tiananmen Square, Xi hailed the party’s successes, saying China wanted to promote peace in the world and was open to “constructive criticism.” 

Yet he quickly warned that the country would no longer listen to “sanctimonious preaching” and that “the time when the Chinese nation could be bullied and abused by others was gone forever.”
Xi, 68, called the move to unify China and Taiwan an “unshakable commitment” and vowed “resolute action to utterly defeat any attempt toward ‘Taiwan independence.’” 

Although the language is similar to what Xi has said before, the comments recommit him to an assertive path as calls grow in the U.S., Japan and elsewhere to boost support the democratic government in Taipei.
“The Chinese people will never allow any foreign forces to bully, coerce and enslave us,” Xi, wearing a gray Mao-style suit, said to rousing applause before a crowd of some 70,000 party faithful, soldiers and foreign observers

“Whoever attempts to do that, will surely break their heads on the steel Great Wall built with the blood and flesh of 1.4 billion of Chinese people.”
While Xi’s remarks appeared aimed at building nationalist support as the party enters a period of slower growth, the tone is likely to further alarm other countries that have clashed with China. 

Negative views of China remain near record highs across the developed world, according to a Pew Research Center survey released hours earlier. 

In 14 of the 17 advanced economies polled, at least 70% said they had no confidence in Xi’s ability to do the right thing in world affairs.
“The number of applause lines here that were provoked by calls to nationalism, strength, sovereignty, was really, really quite striking,” Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Bloomberg Television

“It’s the next 10 years that the party needs to be worried about in terms of resiliency. We’ve never had since the death of Mao the Communist Party run by essentially an autocrat unconstrained by elite politics.”
Most of Xi’s speech focused on the accomplishments of the Communist Party in the past 100 years, including paying respect to former leaders Mao and Deng Xiaoping. 

He declared that China had built a “moderately prosperous society,” marking the completion of a long-held party goal after the economy ballooned to become the world’s second-largest behind the U.S.
Xi continued his efforts to cast himself as the “people’s leader” before a party congress next year in which the “princeling” son of a former vice premier was expected to seek a third five-year term. 

Xi mentioned the “people” 86 times in the 65-minute speech, and he said the party served no privileged groups or special interests.
The comments come after his government has maneuvered to rein in large tech companies like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. 

“As we fought to consolidate our leadership over the country, we have in fact been fighting to earn the people’s support,” Xi said.
Xi portrayed his party of more than 95 million people as indispensable to restoring the Asian nation to a position of global strength after a “century of humiliation” due to imperial invasions and internal strife. 

“Through tenacious struggle, the party and the Chinese people showed the world that the Chinese people have stood up, and that the time when the Chinese nation could be bullied and abused by others was gone forever,” he said.
The ceremony was one of several choreographed events to mark the party’s founding in 1921 by Mao and a handful of other revolutionaries. 

Minutes before Xi started speaking, fighter jets streaked through the sky above the square, and Xi reviewed members of the armed forces in dress uniform as they marched past.
During his remarks, Xi pledged to speed up modernization of the armed forces, although he said the party intends promote peace and some 100,000 doves were released after he finished speaking. 

“We have never bullied the people of any other country and we never will,” Xi said.
While Xi’s grip over domestic politics is stronger than ever, China’s rise is facing increasing resistance from the U.S. and its allies who accuse the president of leading it down a more confrontational and authoritarian path.
“Xi used the speech to show that the CCP has wide support from the public and enjoys high-level popularity among Chinese people, which in turn shows that he himself has the support and popularity,” said Deng Yuwen, a former editor at the party’s Study Times journal. 

“Xi has also used the speech to send a stern warning to the U.S. and the West, and that’s when the audience responded most enthusiastically.”

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7 OCT 19 :: China turns 70 #CCP100 #CPC100
Law & Politics



“Longing on a large scale makes history.” wrote Don DeLillo and these words streamed into my consciousness as I watched the celebrations in Tiananmen Square, which were marking the 70th anniversary of Chinese Communist Party rule.
Xi Jinping and the party were seeking to project national power and confidence on a grand scale. Nothing and nobody was going to rain on this parade.

The pomp and pageantry included a parade that involved 15,000 soldiers and sailors, 160 planes, 580 tanks and other weaponry including what 

Hu Xijin [President Xi’s trusted mouth-piece] described as ‘’This is the legendary DF41 ICBM. But it is not a tale. Today it is displayed at Tiananmen Square I touched one about four years ago in the production plant. No need to fear it. Just respect it and respect China that owns it’’.
”No force can stop the Chinese people and the Chinese nation forging ahead”, he said.
The President for Life was seeking to project a sense of inevitable forward motion and a fulfilment of the promise that Mao Zedong made on the founding of the People’s Re- public of China on October 1, 1949 that China would stand up.
They have “stood up.”

Xi’s model is one of technocratic authoritarianism and a recent addition to his book shelf include The Master Algorithm by Pedro Domingos. 

Xi is building an Algorithmic Society.
“Chinese Dream,” the catchphrase embodying the party’s aim to be- come a global power by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People Republic of China. In a way, this is also nothing new.
But Xi has taken the propagation of ideology and the cult of personality to extremes not seen since the days of Chairman Mao. 

 “Unity is iron and steel; unity is a source of strength,” 

“Complete reunification of the motherland is an inevitable trend..no one and no force can ever stop it!” he added.
I am sure Xi sees Hong Kong and Taiwan like a virus and he is looking to impose a quarantine just like he has imposed on Xinjiang. The Chinese Dream has become a nightmare at the boundaries of the Han Empire.

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They now turn to rule over the people by means of what could be dubbed "big data totalitarianism" and "WeChat terror." @ChinaFile #COVID19 #CCP100 #CPC100
Law & Politics


You will all be no better than fields of garlic chives, giving yourselves up to being harvested by the blade of power, time and time again. @ChinaFile #COVID19 
[ “garlic chives,” Allium tuberosum, often used as a metaphor to describe an endlessly renewable resource.]
What is thriving, however, is all that ridiculous ―Red Culture and the nauseating adulation that the system heaps on itself via shameless pro-Party hacks who chirrup hosannahs at every turn @ChinaFile #COVID19

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05-MAR-2018 :: China has unveiled a Digital Panopticon in Xinjiang #CCP100 #CPC100
Law & Politics



China has unveiled a Digital Panopticon in Xinjiang where a combination of data from video surveillance, face and license plate recognition, mobile device locations, and official records to identify targets for detention. 

Xinjiang is surely a precursor for how the CCP will manage dissent. The actions in Xinjiang are part of the regional authorities’ ongoing “strike-hard” campaign, and of Xi’s “stability maintenance” and “enduring peace” drive in the region. 

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.@RahulGandhi was mocked for saying this. @SriniSivabalan @srinivasiyc
Law & Politics



Conclusions




What if this is a Harbinger for later in the Year? 


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Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 29 June 2021 @WHO
Misc.



The global number of new cases over the past week (21-27 June 2021) was over 2.6 million, a similar number compared to the previous week (Figure 1).
 

The number of weekly deaths continued to decrease, with more than 57 000 deaths reported in the past week, a 10% decrease as compared to the previous week. 

This is the lowest weekly mortality figure since those recorded in early November 2020. 

Globally, COVID-19 incidence remains very high with an average of over 370 000 cases reported each day over the past week. 

This week, the African region recorded a sharp increase in incidence (33%) and mortality (42%) when compared to the previous week (Table 1). 

The Eastern Mediterranean and European Regions also reported increases in the number of weekly cases. 

All Regions, with the exception of the African Region, reported a decline in the number of deaths in the past week.
The highest numbers of new cases were reported from 

Brazil (521 298 new cases; 3% increase)

India (351 218 new cases; 12% increase)

Colombia (204 132 new cases; 5% increase)

Russian Federation (134 465 new cases; 24% increase)

Argentina (131 824 new cases; 11% decrease). 

Over the past week, the highest numbers of new cases per 100 000 population were reported from Seychelles (708 new cases per 100 000 pop), Namibia (509 new cases per 100 000 pop) and Mongolia (491 new cases per 100 000 pop).


Conclusions

This week past we snapped a Trend of 7 declining weeks 

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Global COVID cases Average 364,510 cases/day down 3% past 2wks.
Misc.





Global COVID cases grew by 341,646 yesterday and now totals 182,103,644.  Average 364,510 cases/day down 3% past 2wks.  Average 7,727 deaths/day down 28% past 2wks.  Total now 3,944,226 with 8,119 new deaths yesterday.

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Slight increase in cases @ global level & Upwards trend in AFRO, EURO & EMRO @mvankerkhove
Misc.


Everything now pivots on Vaccine Efficacy and I for one don't think we can be as confident as some Vaccinologists would want us to be 

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9 percent of the Finnish football supporters that attended the Finland-Russia game in Russia came back with a corona infection. @TWenseleers
Misc.


Key reason for the rising case numbers in Finland. In Russia epidemic is completely dominated by delta variant.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1838
Dollar Index 92.614
Japan Yen 111.63
Swiss Franc 0.9261
Pound 1.3743
Aussie 0.7462
India Rupee 74.8275
South Korea Won 1135.83
Brazil Real 5.0472
Egypt Pound 15.6821
South Africa Rand 14.4959

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21 OCT 19 :: The New Economy of Anger
Emerging Markets



Nose-diving economic opportunity is creating tinder-dry conditions.

We have recently witnessed the ‘’WhatsApp’’ Revolution in Lebanon, where a proposed Tax on WhatsApp calls sent up to 17 per cent of the Lebanese Population into the street. 

The Phenomenon is spreading like wildfire in large part because of the tinder dry conditions underfoot. 

Prolonged stand-offs eviscerate economies, reducing opportunities and accelerate the negative feed- back loop.


Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics, 

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’



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WHO regional overviews - Epidemiological week 21-27 June 2021 African Region @WHO
Africa


The Region reported over 177 000 new cases and over 2700 new deaths, a 34% and a 42% increase respectively compared to the previous week. 

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Africa Faces Worst Week of Pandemic as Delta Variant Spreads
Africa



Coronavirus cases in Africa are rising so quickly that the continent will soon face its worst week since the start of the pandemic, with the more infectious delta variant of the disease becoming more widespread.

Almost 202,000 new cases of the illness were reported in the past week, and infections are doubling every three weeks, World Health Organization Regional Director for Africa Matshidiso Moeti said in an online briefing Thursday

More than 5.4 million cases have been reported on the continent, with 141,000 deaths, she said.
“The speed and scale of Africa’s third wave is like nothing we’ve seen before,” Moeti said. “The continent is on the verge of exceeding its worst week ever in this pandemic.”
Fourteen African nations are facing a resurgence of the virus, 12 of which have detected “variants of concern,” including nine with the delta strain, she said.

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“The speed & scale of Africa’s third wave is like nothing we’ve seen before. Rampant spread of contagious variants pushes the threat up to a whole new level" -- Dr Moeti of WHO
Africa



Delta variant detected in 97% of samples in Uganda and 79% in DRC. Cases in Africa rising 25% weekly. “The speed & scale of Africa’s third wave is like nothing we’ve seen before. Rampant spread of contagious variants pushes the threat up to a whole new level" -- Dr Moeti of WHO

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Update #COVID19 in GAUTENG, 01/07/21 12,806 new cases = biggest single day increase @rid1tweets
Africa



• 12,806 new cases = biggest single day increase 
• Case incidence at 69 cases per 100k per day, now twice as high as previous peaks 
• 7,515 currently in hospital, surpassing previous peaks Ambulance
• 1,342 in ICU 

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COVID mortality rate can be used as possible calibration point. However, much of rest of Africa is too high or too low. I imagine both cases and deaths are underepresented in most nations. @jmlukens
Africa


COVID mortality rate can be used as possible calibration point.  South Africa and Tunisia showing comparible mortality rates to many western nations.  However, much of rest of Africa is too high or too low. I imagine both cases and deaths are underepresented in most nations.

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Turning To Africa
Africa






We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''


Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming



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EXPOSED: Police and the army shot protestors who block roads, secretly collect and burn dead bodies to destroy evidence. @SwaziNews
Africa


EXPOSED: Police and the army shot protestors who block roads, secretly collect and burn dead bodies to destroy evidence. Acting Prime Minister denies that Swazis are killed by security forces tension escalated in this tiny Kingdom.

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10 NOV 14 : African youth demographic {many characterise this as a 'demographic dividend"} - which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator
Africa



Martin Aglo, a law student from Benin, told Reuters: “After the Arab Spring, this is the Black Spring”.We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000?

This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.

The Event is no longer over the Horizon.

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November 8, 2020 @PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa



Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

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February 1st 2021 ‘The genie out of the bottle’ @AfricanBizMag
Africa


It’s impossible for the state to manage a guerrilla war up there and at the same time manage to control the rest of the country.

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Ethiopian army pulled out of the Tigray regional capital of Mekelle because it was no longer a "centre of gravity for conflicts", Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said,
Africa



"When we entered Mekelle seven or eight months ago, it was because it was the centre of gravity for conflicts," he told state media on Tuesday in a video posted on his website on Wednesday.
"It was centre of a government. A centre for known and unknown resources. But by the time we exit, there is nothing special about it except that there are some 80,000 people and those who loot people ... It has lost its centre of gravity in the current context."

On Tuesday, Getachew dismissed the ceasefire as a "joke", saying the TPLF would force its enemies "out of our territory". He was not reachable for comment on Wednesday.

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“Our agenda was to correct those things that should be corrected and return to other national issues”. @rene_renelefort
Africa





The aim of the “law enforcement operation” was to neutralize the members of the “junta”. With the return of the “junta” in Mekele, do things have been “corrected”?

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Does this mean that to pull down Tigray economy by looting and destruction is part of the success of the operation? @rene_renelefort
Africa

 “Before the war the difference between Tigray and the other regions was huge. But now it has become equal or below (them)”. Does this mean that to pull down Tigray economy by looting and destruction is part of the success of the operation?

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“We have managed to retrieve all the weapons that were taken from us” If so, from where did the armament TDF has fielded during the last weeks while Tigray was surrounded come from? @rene_renelefort
Africa


“We have managed to retrieve all the weapons that were taken from us” (during the attack of the NC). If so, from where did the armament TDF has fielded during the last weeks while Tigray was surrounded come from? 

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“Our army didn’t withdraw because it was defeated”: all serious observers agree that ENDF suffered a severe blow in Tigray @rene_renelefort
Africa



5/8 “Our army didn’t withdraw because it was defeated”: all serious observers agree that ENDF suffered a severe blow in Tigray and was not in a position to continue to fight. @rene_renelefort

6/8 “As we stay there (in Tigray) long, we are going to feed them (our enemies) many weapons” and also to feed indirectly TDF with food, like the Derg against the TPLF. Victorious ENDF cannot keep its armament?

7/8 “When we called upon the youth to join national defense forces, the number of recruits we got were only 5,000.” Despite a massive propaganda, this is a clear admission that this war wasn’t taken as a great national purpose by Ethiopians.

8/8 “It is useless to stubbornly continue (to fight)… (because) the army is being attacked by the people.” It took Abiy seven months of war, mass massacres, destruction, looting and now starvation to realize the evidence for anybody else: Tigreans fight to rule themselves.

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The reason for the #ceasefire in #Tigray is Abiy simply ran out of cash. GOE reveals cost of birr100bn ($2.2bn). @PatrickHeinisc1
Africa


The reason for the #ceasefire in #Tigray is neither @AbiyAhmedAli 's wish to facilitate humanit. access, nor the glorious TDF "operation Aluala“. It is much less heroic: Abiy simply ran out of cash. GOE reveals cost of birr100bn ($2.2bn).

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The benchmark FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index climbed 12% in the first six months of the year, the best performance since 2007. @markets
Africa


That outpaced developing country peers, with MSCI Inc.’s gauge of emerging markets up less than 7%. Johannesburg stocks continue to trade at a discount to the MSCI gauge.

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Real #GDP growth in #Tanzania eased by a mere 2.2 ppts to 4.8% in 2020. @NKCAfrica
Africa


The decline in GDP growth can be ascribed to weaker performances in the industrial and services sectors, which outweighed stronger growth in the agricultural sector.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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