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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 16th of July 2021
 
Afternoon
Africa


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09-MAY-2021 The Markets The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance



On 8th March when the Bears had gotten hold of the US 10 Year, I wrote that I expected the 10 Year to target 1.45% well we got real close on Friday before the market reversed 


Ten- year yields initially plunged to a more than two-month low of 1.46%, then reversed to end the day at 1.58%. However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now.

Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulus I have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.

The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM!  I beg to differ

Furthermore The Central Banks are in a corner. 

They have fired a lot of bullets and even if there was a meaningful bounce they cannot raise rates.

Here is why central banks are trapped and cannot raise rates even if inflation rises: @dlacalle_IA Feb 2 

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“Derivatives,” Alvin said. “I don’t speculate about the future, I trade it.” @NewYorker
World Of Finance


And they were cross‑linked and interwoven and resold in large bundles, “future on future,” Alvin said, handing me a paper towel. 
“Forget about the forces of the free market, my friend. Commodity prices no longer refer to any value, past or present—they’re just ghosts from the future.”

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Sunrise in the Andaman Sea @AtTheDrop
Misc.



The Tsunami and the Andaman and COVID-19 described by @RahulGandhi

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Violence is sweeping the globe as discontent rises @CNN
Law & Politics


From Cuba to Colombia, South Africa to Lebanon, tensions are igniting across the globe as angry citizens take to the streets over grievances, in part stemming from the governments' response to Covid-19

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Fast Forward
World Of Finance



However, what I am noticing is a metastatic expansion of Protest

This is a moment of Maximum Danger to the Control Machine

And from London to Washington, from Mumbai to Wuhan, from Beirut to Hong Kong, the Divisionists and Splittists will frame it as a binary choice as one that is Black versus White, China versus US or any other binary iteration You care to mention whereas its much simpler than that.
It is about the Haves and the Have Nots. Its about the moment of Epiphany when the Have Nots appreciate the predicament in which they have been placed and identify with each other rather than a ‘’boogaloo’’ structure that has been placed upon them.
Will they have that moment of Epiphany? Well There certainly has not been a more ‘’conducive’’ moment.



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21 OCT 19 :: The New Economy of Anger
Law & Politics




“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’

nose-diving economic opportunity is creating tinder-dry conditions.

The Phenomenon is spreading like wildfire in large part because of the tinder dry conditions underfoot. 

Prolonged stand-offs eviscerate economies, reducing opportunities and accelerate the negative feed- back loop.


Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics, 

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’





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"Last week marked the fourth consecutive week of increasing cases of Covid-19 globally," @DrTedros
Misc.



"The Delta variant is ripping around the world at a scorching pace, driving a new spike in cases and deaths." 

"The current collective strategy reminds me of a firefighting team taking on a forest blaze," he said. 

"Hosing down part of it might reduce the flames in one area, but while it's smoldering anywhere, sparks will eventually travel and grow again into a rolling furnace." 



We emerged from the below captioned 4 weeks ago. 

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Globally, cases & deaths increased by 10% & 3% last week, respectively @mvankerkhove
Misc.



Cases increasing in 5/6 WHO regions
Delta variant in >111 countries

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Still see 70% quoted as level of vaccination required for 'herd immunity'. Important to note it's now likely to be much higher. @AdamJKucharski
Misc.


The standard (albeit rough) calculation for herd immunity threshold is (1/E) x (1-1/R) where E is vaccine effectiveness in reducing transmission

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Above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population @AdamJKucharski
Misc.


In scenario where R is 6 (plausible for Delta in susceptible populations without any restrictions), and vaccination reduces infection/infectiousness such that onwards transmission reduced by 85%, above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population. 2/

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The viral loads in the Delta infections were ~1000 times higher than those in the earlier 19A/19B strain infections on the day when viruses were firstly detected
Misc.



We deducted the intra-family transmission pairs from our time interval analysis. 

Our results showed the time interval from the exposure to first PCR positive in the quarantined population (n=29) was 6.00 (IQR 5.00-8.00) days in the 2020 epidemic (peak at 5.61 days) and was 4.00 (IQR 3.00-5.00) days in the 2021 (n=34) epidemic (peak at 3.71 days)
Compared to the 19A/19 B strains, the relative viral loads in the Delta variant infections (62 cases, Ct value 24.00 (IQR 19.00~29.00) for ORF1ab gene) were 1260 times higher than the 19A/19B strains infections (63 cases, Ct value 34.31 (IQR 31.00~36.00) for ORF1ab gene) on the day when viruses were first detected (Figure 1C).


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1806
Dollar Index 92.602
Japan Yen 109.99
Swiss Franc 0.9185
Pound 1.3818
Aussie 0.7433
India Rupee 74.6135
South Korea Won 1139.95
Brazil Real 5.1165
Egypt Pound 15.7085
South Africa Rand 14.526

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Reed Hastings: ‘ @netflix is still in challenger status’ @FT
World Of Finance




Reed Hastings is the billionaire founder of Netflix, the crusher of Blockbuster, and the one who turned Hollywood upside down with streaming tech 

Netflix launched 1997 a service offering DVD hire by post, aiming to bring internet savvy to the ever-frustrating, damn-the-late-fees world of video rental. 

“Covid could have been an internet virus taking down all the routers of the world and our business would be out and restaurants would be in,” 

“And instead tragically it is a biological one, so everybody is locked up and we had the greatest growth in the first half of this year that we ever had.”


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SEP-2019 a ‘’conviction’’ Buy at Friday’s closing price of $270.75. $NFLX
World Of Finance




My Mind kept to an Article I read in 2012 ‘’Annals of Technology Streaming Dreams’’ by John Seabrook January 16, 2012. 

“People went from broad to narrow,” he said, “and we think they will continue to go that way—spend more and more time in the niches— because now the distribution landscape allows for more narrowness’’

Netflix is not a US business, it is a global business. The Majority of Analysts are in the US and in my opinion, these same Analysts have an international ‘’blind spot’’ 

Once Investors appreciate that the Story is an international one and not a US one anymore, we will see the price ramp to fresh all-time highs. 

I, therefore, am putting out a ‘’conviction’’ Buy on Netflix at Friday’s closing price of $270.75.




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@elonmusk I am become meme, Destroyer of shorts
World Currencies



Mr. Musk can pump and dump just about anything with a tweet.he has superpowers.

And on February 4 He tested that hypothesis

No highs, no lows, only Doge @elonmusk Feb 4 Dogecoin is the people’s crypto @elonmusk Feb 4

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@WHO Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 13 July 2021
Africa



African Region

The weekly case incidence and deaths continues to increase for the past consecutive nine weeks and eight weeks, respectively. 

The African Region reported over 213 000 new cases and over 5000 new deaths, a 5% and a 50% increase respectively as compared to the previous week. 

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"The ceasefire could not bear the desired fruits," he said. "The TPLF...poses a great danger to the sovereignty of the country'' Reuters
Africa


"The ceasefire could not bear the desired fruits," he said. "The TPLF...poses a great danger to the sovereignty of the country. The federal government, through mobilising the people of Ethiopia, is determined to curb this threat."

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November 8, 2020 @PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa



Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

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A fiendishly complicated task fending off the centrIfugal forces which are tearing Ethiopia apart [ @PMEthiopia has lost this battle]
Africa



• whether to embark on political negotiations with Tigray and unblock aid to the region in the wake of the federal forces' unilateral ceasefire declared on 28 June;
• how to restructure relations within the federation to address growing protest and violence in the regions;
• persuading Western governments to lift sanctions on Addis Ababa linked to the Tigray war and regaining the confidence of the investors who had flocked to Ethiopia as the second biggest market in Africa after Nigeria.


Much of the resulting financial crisis has been triggered by the Tigray war with Addis pushing back hard against foreign pressure.

Without a change of political strategy, the economic pressures are unlikely to relent.

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@FitchRatings In the #political_risk index #Ethiopia dropped to just above #Somalia. @PatrickHeinisc1
Africa


@FitchRatings believes 🇪🇹 gov. re-election allows to move forward with #economic_reforms, but is “unlikely to give  @AbiyAhmedAli the legitimacy he needs to restore peace”. In the #political_risk index #Ethiopia dropped to just above #Somalia.

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10-JUN-2019 :: The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating
Africa





As I watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a portal into a whole new normal.

Hugh Masekela said ‘’I want to be there when the people start to turn it around.’’ Sudan is a Masekela pivot moment. 

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You have heard powers talking of 4-dimensional superiority. Some countries have started space Armies. My appeal to the NRM Members, other Ugandans & Africans, is to scrutinize this point and we move. @KagutaMuseveni
Africa


You have heard powers talking of 4-dimensional superiority. Some countries have started space Armies.  How can Africa watch while others build great strength to our disadvantage?  My appeal to the NRM Members, other Ugandans & Africans, is to scrutinize this point and we move.

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Kenya walks recovery tightrope before 2022 elections @AfricanBizMag @__TomCollins
Africa


Amid the possibility of further lockdowns, some observers believe that the IMF’s prediction of 7.6% growth in 2021 and 5.7% in 2022 paints an overly rosy picture.
“I’m astonished with the IMF prediction, but frankly the IMF has been significantly off base in a lot of African countries recently,” says Aly-Khan Satchu, CEO of Nairobi-based investment advisory firm Rich Management.
“I’m hard pressed to see how this economy can rebound meaningfully this year. I think we are going to get a very anaemic rebound, probably half of what the IMF is predicting. A lot of people have lost their jobs, it’s been very tough.”
Satchu says that the international community is keen to support Kenya as much as possible while the rest of the region is in turmoil.
“What the IMF and World Bank have done is given Kenya some breathing space and I think in part that is the geopolitical context for what is happening in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa,” he says.

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.@SafaricomPLC's Entry to the Ethiopian Market: An Explainer via @MwangoCapital
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services



Global Partnership for Ethiopia (GPE), a consortium that Safaricom is part of, won one of two New Telecommunications Licenses – a 15-year license that comes with the right to apply for a 15-year extension. 

The partnership consists of Safaricom (Kenya), Vodafone Group (UK), Vodacom Group (South Africa), CDC Group (UK), Sumitomo Corporation (Japan), and Development Finance Corporation (US-DFC).

Following the award of the license, the consortium paid an $850M (Kshs 91.72B) fee to the Ethiopian Government through the National Bank of Ethiopia. 

The company’s shareholding is Safaricom (55.7%), Vodacom (6.2%), Sumitomo Corp. (27.2%), and CDC Group (10.9%).

The license awarded to the consortium does not include a license to operate mobile money, one that would have allowed Safaricom to roll out its jewel M-Pesa in the Ethiopian market. 

In the last financial year, M-Pesa’s revenues accounted for 33% (Kshs 82.65B / $765.96m) of service revenue (Kshs 240.84B / $2.23B), and 31% of total revenue (Kshs 264.03B / $2.45B).

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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