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Afternoon
Africa
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Register and its all Free.
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The gap between 10-year and 2-year yields has shrunk to the least since February. @Lisaabramowicz1 [I expect it to shrink further]
World Of Finance
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US real returns remain negative @Schuldensuehner
World Of Finance
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However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now. 09-MAY-2021 The Markets The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance
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09-MAY-2021 The Markets The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance
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On 8th March when the Bears had gotten hold of the US 10 Year, I wrote that I expected the 10 Year to target 1.45% well we got real close on Friday before the market reversed
Ten- year yields initially plunged to a more than two-month low of 1.46%, then reversed to end the day at 1.58%. However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now.
Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulus I have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.
The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM! I beg to differ
Furthermore The Central Banks are in a corner.
They have fired a lot of bullets and even if there was a meaningful bounce they cannot raise rates.
Here is why central banks are trapped and cannot raise rates even if inflation rises: @dlacalle_IA Feb 2
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The Bullwhip Effect after the great lockdown is often confused with a new and stronger growth trend. @dlacalle_IA
World Of Finance
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“Derivatives,” Alvin said. “I don’t speculate about the future, I trade it.” @NewYorker
World Of Finance
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And they were cross‑linked and interwoven and resold in large bundles, “future on future,” Alvin said, handing me a paper towel.
“Forget about the forces of the free market, my friend. Commodity prices no longer refer to any value, past or present—they’re just ghosts from the future.”
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A journey into nature undisturbed as we take guests into the endlessly beautiful Matthews Range of northern Kenya. @AnotherAfrica
Africa
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"Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me, as is ever so on the road" - Jack Kerouac
Misc.
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"The road must eventually lead to the whole world." - Jack Kerouac, On the Road
Misc.
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"I'm interested only in expressing basic human emotions -- tragedy, ecstasy, doom & so on...The people who weep before my pictures are having the same religious experience I had when I painted them." -Mark Rothko
Misc.
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Sunrise in the Andaman Sea @AtTheDrop
Misc.
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The Tsunami and the Andaman and COVID-19 described by @RahulGandhi
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.@RahulGandhi was mocked for saying this. @SriniSivabalan @srinivasiyc
Misc.
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The Pandemic Is a Portal
Misc.
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But all doors used regularly are doors to the afterlife .@MargaretAtwood
Misc.
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A decade of "semiotic arousal" when everything, it seemed, was a sign, a harbinger of some future radical disjuncture or cataclysmic upheaval.
Misc.
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WATCH : World war 2 era Sirens used to warn the people of floods in wuppertal, Germany @444crew444
Misc.
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‘It’s feels as though we’re living through a frozen explosion. The shattered pieces of the world as we knew it are all suspended in the air...’ ARUNDHATI ROY
Misc.
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There is certainly a Fin de siecle even apocalyptic mood afoot.
Misc.
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Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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Violence is sweeping the globe as discontent rises @CNN
Law & Politics
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From Cuba to Colombia, South Africa to Lebanon, tensions are igniting across the globe as angry citizens take to the streets over grievances, in part stemming from the governments' response to Covid-19
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Chomsky wrote this of Trump “Implementing policies for the benefit of the wealthy and himself while conning the victims (the taxpayer, the poor) into worshipping him as their savior.” @hallaboutafrica
Law & Politics
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Fast Forward
World Of Finance
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However, what I am noticing is a metastatic expansion of Protest
This is a moment of Maximum Danger to the Control Machine
And from London to Washington, from Mumbai to Wuhan, from Beirut to Hong Kong, the Divisionists and Splittists will frame it as a binary choice as one that is Black versus White, China versus US or any other binary iteration You care to mention whereas its much simpler than that.
It is about the Haves and the Have Nots. Its about the moment of Epiphany when the Have Nots appreciate the predicament in which they have been placed and identify with each other rather than a ‘’boogaloo’’ structure that has been placed upon them.
Will they have that moment of Epiphany? Well There certainly has not been a more ‘’conducive’’ moment.
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21 OCT 19 :: The New Economy of Anger
Law & Politics
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“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’
nose-diving economic opportunity is creating tinder-dry conditions.
The Phenomenon is spreading like wildfire in large part because of the tinder dry conditions underfoot.
Prolonged stand-offs eviscerate economies, reducing opportunities and accelerate the negative feed- back loop.
Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics,
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’
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Estaremos de volta em breve, se Deus quiser. O Brasil é nosso! @jairbolsonaro
Law & Politics
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10-MAY-2020 : ''Brazilians aren‘t infected by anything, even when they fall into a sewer'' @jairbolsonaro
Law & Politics
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The Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved #COVID19
Misc.
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"Last week marked the fourth consecutive week of increasing cases of Covid-19 globally," @DrTedros
Misc.
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"The Delta variant is ripping around the world at a scorching pace, driving a new spike in cases and deaths."
"The current collective strategy reminds me of a firefighting team taking on a forest blaze," he said.
"Hosing down part of it might reduce the flames in one area, but while it's smoldering anywhere, sparks will eventually travel and grow again into a rolling furnace."
We emerged from the below captioned 4 weeks ago.
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If you have a "normal" pandemic that is fading, but "variants" that [are] surging, the combined total can look like a flat, manageable situation. @spignal
Misc.
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Globally, cases & deaths increased by 10% & 3% last week, respectively @mvankerkhove
Misc.
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Cases increasing in 5/6 WHO regions
Delta variant in >111 countries
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A quick look at the #COVID19 #global situation. Rise in cases in most regions of the world. @AsjadNaqvi
Misc.
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Data from #Covid19 worldwide on July 14: + 498,548 cases in 24 hours @CovidTracker_fr
Misc.
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Still see 70% quoted as level of vaccination required for 'herd immunity'. Important to note it's now likely to be much higher. @AdamJKucharski
Misc.
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The standard (albeit rough) calculation for herd immunity threshold is (1/E) x (1-1/R) where E is vaccine effectiveness in reducing transmission
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And the belief in Vaccine Efficacy is now bumping at euphoric levels. Folks I followed on Twitter for their epidemiological excellence now simply recite Vaccine / Inoculation data like a liturgy.
Misc.
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Above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population @AdamJKucharski
Misc.
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In scenario where R is 6 (plausible for Delta in susceptible populations without any restrictions), and vaccination reduces infection/infectiousness such that onwards transmission reduced by 85%, above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population. 2/
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If transmission reduction is less than this (which is likely the case for some vaccines against Delta), or R higher, then herd immunity wouldn't be achievable through current vaccines alone. @AdamJKucharski
Misc.
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9-MAY-2021 :: However, The Western World and China think they have the microbe licked with their Superpower Vaccine[s]
Misc.
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28-MAR-2021 we are seeing a sustained acceleration in mutant viruses.
Misc.
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The viral loads in the Delta infections were ~1000 times higher than those in the earlier 19A/19B strain infections on the day when viruses were firstly detected
Misc.
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We deducted the intra-family transmission pairs from our time interval analysis.
Our results showed the time interval from the exposure to first PCR positive in the quarantined population (n=29) was 6.00 (IQR 5.00-8.00) days in the 2020 epidemic (peak at 5.61 days) and was 4.00 (IQR 3.00-5.00) days in the 2021 (n=34) epidemic (peak at 3.71 days)
Compared to the 19A/19 B strains, the relative viral loads in the Delta variant infections (62 cases, Ct value 24.00 (IQR 19.00~29.00) for ORF1ab gene) were 1260 times higher than the 19A/19B strains infections (63 cases, Ct value 34.31 (IQR 31.00~36.00) for ORF1ab gene) on the day when viruses were first detected (Figure 1C).
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International Markets
World Of Finance
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1806
Dollar Index 92.602
Japan Yen 109.99
Swiss Franc 0.9185
Pound 1.3818
Aussie 0.7433
India Rupee 74.6135
South Korea Won 1139.95
Brazil Real 5.1165
Egypt Pound 15.7085
South Africa Rand 14.526
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Dollar Index Chart INO 92.615
World Currencies
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Euro versus the Dollar Chart 1.1806
World Currencies
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Reed Hastings: ‘ @netflix is still in challenger status’ @FT
World Of Finance
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Reed Hastings is the billionaire founder of Netflix, the crusher of Blockbuster, and the one who turned Hollywood upside down with streaming tech
Netflix launched 1997 a service offering DVD hire by post, aiming to bring internet savvy to the ever-frustrating, damn-the-late-fees world of video rental.
“Covid could have been an internet virus taking down all the routers of the world and our business would be out and restaurants would be in,”
“And instead tragically it is a biological one, so everybody is locked up and we had the greatest growth in the first half of this year that we ever had.”
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SEP-2019 a ‘’conviction’’ Buy at Friday’s closing price of $270.75. $NFLX
World Of Finance
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My Mind kept to an Article I read in 2012 ‘’Annals of Technology Streaming Dreams’’ by John Seabrook January 16, 2012.
“People went from broad to narrow,” he said, “and we think they will continue to go that way—spend more and more time in the niches— because now the distribution landscape allows for more narrowness’’
Netflix is not a US business, it is a global business. The Majority of Analysts are in the US and in my opinion, these same Analysts have an international ‘’blind spot’’
Once Investors appreciate that the Story is an international one and not a US one anymore, we will see the price ramp to fresh all-time highs.
I, therefore, am putting out a ‘’conviction’’ Buy on Netflix at Friday’s closing price of $270.75.
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20th July 2020 Reiterating conviction BUY $NFLX $498.19
World Of Finance
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Tell me again why you bought $DOGE? #dogecoin @Patrickrooney
World Currencies
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@elonmusk I am become meme, Destroyer of shorts
World Currencies
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Mr. Musk can pump and dump just about anything with a tweet.he has superpowers.
And on February 4 He tested that hypothesis
No highs, no lows, only Doge @elonmusk Feb 4 Dogecoin is the people’s crypto @elonmusk Feb 4
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Crude Oil Chart INO 71.35
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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I like @RobinBrooksIIF am very bullish the Brazil Real $/BRL
Emerging Markets
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I believe this is President Lazarus received via @WhatsApp
Africa
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We are facing is an amalgamation and an intersectionality of 3 phenomenons being ethno-tribalism, rampant criminality and desperation by the poor. @agobakwe_m
Africa
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We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point
Africa
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South Africa's core issue is non-existent growth in income per capita since 2014. @SergiLanauIIF
Africa
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9 DEC 19 :: Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes
Africa
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“Past next year we will be moving toward endemicity of this virus on our continent and the consequences will be catastrophic,” @JNkengasong “We don’t want to be seen as the continent of Covid.”
Africa
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Drinking the Kool-Aid
Africa
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"Over the past month, #Africa recorded an additional 1 million cases. This is the shortest time it’s taken so far to add one million cases." Dr @MoetiTshidi #COVID19 @WHOAFRO
Africa
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"Comparatively, it took around three months to move from 4 million to 5 million cases." - Dr @MoetiTshidi #COVID19
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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett
Africa
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''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics''
Africa
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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 29 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa
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@WHO Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 13 July 2021
Africa
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African Region
The weekly case incidence and deaths continues to increase for the past consecutive nine weeks and eight weeks, respectively.
The African Region reported over 213 000 new cases and over 5000 new deaths, a 5% and a 50% increase respectively as compared to the previous week.
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"Eighteen African countries are now in resurgence. The Delta variant, which is currently the most transmissible of all variants, has been detected in 21 countries." Dr @MoetiTshidi #COVID19 @WHOAFRO
Africa
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675,172 Active COVID-19 Cases in Africa @BeautifyData [29.84% above WAVE 2 High from January 2021]
Africa
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Active #Covid19 cases record 520,000 was in January 2021 @NKCAfrica
Africa
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COVID-19 BRIEFING ... President Hage Geingob this morning warned that the positivity ratio remains high at 42%. @TheNamibian
Africa
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Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It‟s the boiling point. It‟s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards.
Africa
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RWANDA PUTS its capital Kigali under total lockdown for 10 days effective July 17 as the country battles third wave of Covid-19. @NationBreaking
Africa
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ኢትዮጵያ #በጽናትትገሠግሣለች #ResilientlyOnwards @AbiyAhmedAli
Africa
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“It wasn't so easy though, ending the war. A war is a huge fire; the ashes from it drift far, and settle slowly.” @MargaretAtwood's The Blind Assassin
Africa
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"The ceasefire could not bear the desired fruits," he said. "The TPLF...poses a great danger to the sovereignty of the country'' Reuters
Africa
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"The ceasefire could not bear the desired fruits," he said. "The TPLF...poses a great danger to the sovereignty of the country. The federal government, through mobilising the people of Ethiopia, is determined to curb this threat."
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Counterintuitively Abiy is now in an All or Nothing situation and given your prognosis (and mine) that it will be nothing this is now an End Game @RAbdiAnalyst isn’t it?
Africa
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November 8, 2020 @PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa
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Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed
PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst
@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
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#Tigray v. #Amhara Major clash seems imminent as Ethiopia mobilizes more of the national army to fight with Amhara militias against Tigray forces advance toward Amhara region @michaeltanchum
Africa
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‘The genie out of the bottle’ @AfricanBizMag
Africa
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A fiendishly complicated task fending off the centrIfugal forces which are tearing Ethiopia apart [ @PMEthiopia has lost this battle]
Africa
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• whether to embark on political negotiations with Tigray and unblock aid to the region in the wake of the federal forces' unilateral ceasefire declared on 28 June;
• how to restructure relations within the federation to address growing protest and violence in the regions;
• persuading Western governments to lift sanctions on Addis Ababa linked to the Tigray war and regaining the confidence of the investors who had flocked to Ethiopia as the second biggest market in Africa after Nigeria.
Much of the resulting financial crisis has been triggered by the Tigray war with Addis pushing back hard against foreign pressure.
Without a change of political strategy, the economic pressures are unlikely to relent.
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Mekelle erupted into celebration after Ethiopian forces abandoned the city on June 28. For days, people feted Tigrayan fighters streaming in from the countryside where they'd been fighting a few days earlier. @declanwalsh
Africa
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Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance
Africa
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@FitchRatings In the #political_risk index #Ethiopia dropped to just above #Somalia. @PatrickHeinisc1
Africa
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@FitchRatings believes 🇪🇹 gov. re-election allows to move forward with #economic_reforms, but is “unlikely to give @AbiyAhmedAli the legitimacy he needs to restore peace”. In the #political_risk index #Ethiopia dropped to just above #Somalia.
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After having reached a bottom at SDG450:1USD, the #Sudanese_pound gained some value since last week. Black market collapses amid improved market supply. @PatrickHeinisc1
Africa
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10-JUN-2019 :: The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating
Africa
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As I watched events unfold it felt like Sudan was a portal into a whole new normal.
Hugh Masekela said ‘’I want to be there when the people start to turn it around.’’ Sudan is a Masekela pivot moment.
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You have heard powers talking of 4-dimensional superiority. Some countries have started space Armies. My appeal to the NRM Members, other Ugandans & Africans, is to scrutinize this point and we move. @KagutaMuseveni
Africa
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You have heard powers talking of 4-dimensional superiority. Some countries have started space Armies. How can Africa watch while others build great strength to our disadvantage? My appeal to the NRM Members, other Ugandans & Africans, is to scrutinize this point and we move.
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Mauritius, a tourism-dependent economy, will reopen its borders on Thursday to vaccinated tourists after being closed for 16 months @BBGAfrica
Africa
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
Africa
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Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 14.5137
Africa
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar Chart INO 15.7075
Africa
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No prizes for guessing which SSA country sounds a lot like the Portillo regime of Mexico in 1976-82 - with import, administrative and FX controls. @RencapMan
Africa
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I'd be curious to know more about the Cambridge group of advisors at the time ..
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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Dan Gertler, middleman in one of the world's biggest mining scandals, laundered money and paid US$360 million in cash bribes to high-ranking politicians in Congo-Kinshasa, according to court documents seen by @Africa_Conf
Africa
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@FitchRatings expects #Kenya’s economy to grow at 4.4% in 2021 & 5.2% in 2022, above regional average but below Kenya historical average. @PatrickHeinisc1
Kenyan Economy
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Private #investment will recover but #tourist_arrivals are not expected to rebound this year.
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Kenya walks recovery tightrope before 2022 elections @AfricanBizMag @__TomCollins
Africa
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Amid the possibility of further lockdowns, some observers believe that the IMF’s prediction of 7.6% growth in 2021 and 5.7% in 2022 paints an overly rosy picture.
“I’m astonished with the IMF prediction, but frankly the IMF has been significantly off base in a lot of African countries recently,” says Aly-Khan Satchu, CEO of Nairobi-based investment advisory firm Rich Management.
“I’m hard pressed to see how this economy can rebound meaningfully this year. I think we are going to get a very anaemic rebound, probably half of what the IMF is predicting. A lot of people have lost their jobs, it’s been very tough.”
Satchu says that the international community is keen to support Kenya as much as possible while the rest of the region is in turmoil.
“What the IMF and World Bank have done is given Kenya some breathing space and I think in part that is the geopolitical context for what is happening in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa,” he says.
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.@SafaricomPLC's Entry to the Ethiopian Market: An Explainer via @MwangoCapital
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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Global Partnership for Ethiopia (GPE), a consortium that Safaricom is part of, won one of two New Telecommunications Licenses – a 15-year license that comes with the right to apply for a 15-year extension.
The partnership consists of Safaricom (Kenya), Vodafone Group (UK), Vodacom Group (South Africa), CDC Group (UK), Sumitomo Corporation (Japan), and Development Finance Corporation (US-DFC).
Following the award of the license, the consortium paid an $850M (Kshs 91.72B) fee to the Ethiopian Government through the National Bank of Ethiopia.
The company’s shareholding is Safaricom (55.7%), Vodacom (6.2%), Sumitomo Corp. (27.2%), and CDC Group (10.9%).
The license awarded to the consortium does not include a license to operate mobile money, one that would have allowed Safaricom to roll out its jewel M-Pesa in the Ethiopian market.
In the last financial year, M-Pesa’s revenues accounted for 33% (Kshs 82.65B / $765.96m) of service revenue (Kshs 240.84B / $2.23B), and 31% of total revenue (Kshs 264.03B / $2.45B).
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.@SafaricomPLC share price data
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
World Currencies
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
N.S.E General
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