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Wednesday 21st of July 2021
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Morning
Africa
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Register and its all Free.
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19-JUL-2021 :: Mirrors On The Ceiling The Pink champagne on ice
World Of Finance
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Look up @McConaughey
The World in the c21st exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.
It was in 1991 [3 decades ago now] that Krauthammer spoke of the “Unipolar Moment” and highlighted that the US had emerged as the center of world power and unchallenged superpower.
Thirty years later, The US is exiting Afghanistan and we can speak of a Tripolar World with the US, China and Russia now ruling the c21st Roost.
The ''Salami Slicer'' has snaffled up Hong Kong and the World waits on tenterhooks for the inevitable move on Taiwan.
Putin's Russia expanded into Crimea and has a firm foothold in the Middle East in Syria. It is often said that Russia's economy is a Pygmy [and comparable to Italy's] but then we have to admit Russia's Power Projection is practically miraculous.
The World is full of friction points and it is Xi Jinping [President for Life and Eternity] who has rolled the dice and is on a winning streak.
The Virus whether by design or accident accelerated the advantage in China's favour whichever way you care to slice and dice it.
COVID-19
The Virus remains unresolved. I recall a few months ago every Pharma Co. pronounced how their Vaccine had an efficacy of close enough to 100%.
Today the relative viral loads in the Delta variant infections are 1260 times higher than the 19A/19B strains infections and the same variant ''shows 8 fold approximately reduced sensitivity to vaccine-elicited antibodies compared to wild type Wuhan-1 bearing D614G'' [@GuptaR_lab].
Thread
We now further define Delta immune evasion using a panel of 38 monoclonal antibodies, showing significant loss of potency of NTD and RBD targeting antibodies. @GuptaR_lab
Far from ebbing, the virus has gained virulence and you have to be a Naif to believe the Microbe is licked.
554,753 cases yesterday also above accelerating 485,767/day avg (up 28% past 2wks). @jmlukens
We are now approaching the FIFTH peak in COVID cases and deaths in just sixteen months @greg_travis
Certainly, the Vaccine has mitigated Mortality but lets see for how long because in a hyperconnected World just about everyone has to be vaccinated for the World to reach Herd Immunity. Its just not going to happen.
Still see 70% quoted as level of vaccination required for 'herd immunity'. Important to note it's now likely to be much higher. @AdamJKucharski
The standard (albeit rough) calculation for herd immunity threshold is (1/E) x (1-1/R) where E is vaccine effectiveness in reducing transmission above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population @AdamJKucharski
In scenario where R is 6 (plausible for Delta in susceptible populations without any restrictions), and vaccination reduces infection/infectiousness such that onwards transmission reduced by 85%, above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population. 2/
If transmission reduction is less than this (which is likely the case for some vaccines against Delta), or R higher, then herd immunity wouldn't be achievable through current vaccines alone. @AdamJKucharski
So, my Point is this, our Attention span is short and Many Folks seem to feel we are in the final Act of the COVID-19 Play. I would be limit short that particular narrative.
Now lets turn our gaze further afield. I used to trade Emerging Markets and what I noticed how ripples at the Periphery could boomerang towards the centre.
In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.
Lorenz wrote:
"At one point I decided to repeat some of the computations in order to examine what was happening in greater detail. I stopped the computer, typed in a line of numbers that it had printed out a while earlier, and set it running again. I went down the hall for a cup of coffee and returned after about an hour, during which time the computer had simulated about two months of weather. The numbers being printed were nothing like the old ones. I immediately suspected a weak vacuum tube or some other computer trouble, which was not uncommon, but before calling for service I decided to see just where the mistake had occurred, knowing that this could speed up the servicing process. Instead of a sudden break, I found that the new values at first repeated the old ones, but soon afterward differed by one and then several units in the last decimal place, and then began to differ in the next to the last place and then in the place before that. In fact, the differences more or less steadily doubled in size every four days or so, until all resemblance with the original output disappeared somewhere in the second month. This was enough to tell me what had happened: the numbers that I had typed in were not the exact original numbers, but were the rounded-off values that had appeared in the original printout. The initial round-off errors were the culprits; they were steadily amplifying until they dominated the solution." (E. N. Lorenz, The Essence of Chaos, U. Washington Press, Seattle (1993), page 134)[7]
Elsewhere he stated:
One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a sea gull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favor the sea gulls.
Take a look at how events are unfolding From Cuba to Colombia, South Africa to Lebanon, and you will note tensions are igniting across the globe. To assume that contagion stops in country and does not turn viral in a c21st World where the Few control practically everything is another narrative I would prefer to be limit short.
Now lets turn to Africa.
lets look at the Virus first
"Over the past month, #Africa recorded an additional 1 million cases. This is the shortest time it’s taken so far to add one million cases." Dr @MoetiTshidi #COVID19 @WHOAFRO
"Comparatively, it took around three months to move from 4 million to 5 million cases." - Dr @MoetiTshidi #COVID19
From the Africa CDC. (Note: this is based only on official statistics and formal testing, so it undercounts the real situation.) @geoffreyyork
We are on the cusp of the Gladwellian moment
Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It‟s the boiling point. It‟s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards.
“Past next year we will be moving toward endemicity of this virus on our continent and the consequences will be catastrophic,” @JNkengasong
Major Economies like South Africa and Ethiopia have tipped. Nigeria is not far behind.
There is a clear attempt at rendering South Africa ungovernable. To use state paralysis as a bargaining chip to achieve a political objective. Call this what it is, its an insurgency @Pol_Sec_Analyst
We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point
This week’s violence has stretched the social fabric to breaking point and left the economic powerhouse of the continent on a knife-edge. — Karl Maier
Phase Two: looting was just the start say investigators and intelligence @mailandguardian
https://j.mp/3hP8itT
A source close to Zuma told the M&G that it would be wise to remember that the instigators are soldiers. They know where to hit and how to plan economic sabotage.
“The plan was not for the looting but to hit the white capital that supports [President Cyril] Ramaphosa so that they will go to him and say; ‘Stop what you are doing. This is hurting us now.’ They will now strike where they don’t expect it. Zuma must be released, and Ramaphosa must go,” said the source.
According to an ANC national executive committee (NEC) leader, Ramaphosa was warned by intelligence that this was the first phase of a programme that aims to destabilise the country.
The NEC member said they were told that the instigators are equipped with heavy machinery and the looting is only phase one.
“This is what we are hearing. The second phase is to burn resources and this is what I foresee will happen soon,” said the source.
I am limit short the ZAR
Nigeria of course is in a not dissimilar situation.
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The lights must never go out, The music must always play
World Of Finance
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Love Fellini. So brave, with that whiff of insanity. @DiAmatoStyle Federico Fellini's 8 1/2 @tcm
Misc.
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Apocalypse Now ~ 𝘍𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘴 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘥 𝘊𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘢 (1979) @Futura_Noir
Misc.
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The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Misc.
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Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.
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Photo of a wildfire near my parent’s home in Northern California right now @eade_bengard
Misc.
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A decade of "semiotic arousal" when everything, it seemed, was a sign, a harbinger of some future radical disjuncture or cataclysmic upheaval.
Misc.
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Dancing Dervishes,folio from a Divan of Hafiz ca. 1480 @metmuseum @Peachtreespeaks
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A Suspended Blue Ocean
Misc.
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The sky
Is a suspended blue ocean.
The stars are the fish
That swim.
The planets are the white whales
I sometimes hitch a ride on,
And the sun and all light
Have forever fused themselves
Into my heart and upon
My skin.
There is only one rule
On this Wild Playground,
For every sign Hafiz has ever seen
Reads the same.
They all say,
"Have fun, my dear; my dear, have fun,
In the Beloved's Divine
Game,
O, in the Beloved's
Wonderful Game."
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WATCH: Celebrations at a nightclub in London as coronavirus restrictions are lifted @BNODesk
Misc.
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06-APR-2020 :: The Way we live now
World Of Finance
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I felt myself on the edge of the world; peering over the rim into a fathomless chaos of eternal night... H. P. Lovecraft @wasowska_mag
Misc.
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Inez is a short novel, just over 100 pages, but so rich and filling that it can only be devoured in pieces, allowing time to digest between courses; it is profound and poetic, a love story for the ages.
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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Textures of Lake Turkana. #Magicalkenya @andreyjosephs
Africa
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The Pandemic Is a Portal
World Of Finance
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But all doors used regularly are doors to the afterlife .@MargaretAtwood
Misc.
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Russia says it successfully tested hypersonic missile praised by Putin @Reuters
Law & Politics
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It is often said that Russia's economy is a Pygmy [and comparable to Italy's] but then we have to admit Russia's Power Projection is practically miraculous.
Law & Politics
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It was in 1991 [3 decades ago now] that Krauthammer spoke of the “Unipolar Moment” Thirty years later, The US is exiting Afghanistan
Law & Politics
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It was in 1991 [3 decades ago now] that Krauthammer spoke of the “Unipolar Moment” and highlighted that the US had emerged as the center of world power and unchallenged superpower. Thirty years later, The US is exiting Afghanistan
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VIDEO: Rocket attacks in Kabul. While praying to mark the start of Eid, leading Afghan political figures, including President Ashraf Ghani, react to the sound of rocket blasts that can be heard @AFP
Law & Politics
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VIDEO: Rocket attacks in Kabul. While praying to mark the start of Eid, leading Afghan political figures, including President Ashraf Ghani, react to the sound of rocket blasts that can be heard on a live broadcast by state media in Kabul
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Mullah Omar: I am considering two promises. One is the promise of God, the other is that of Bush. The promise of Bush is that there is no place on earth where you can hide that I cannot find you. We will see which one of these two promises is fulfilled.
Law & Politics
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JUST IN - UK to China: HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier group to sail through disputed international waters in the South China Sea @disclosetv
Law & Politics
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JUST IN - UK to China: HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier group to sail through disputed international waters in the South China Sea - and ships will remain permanently in the region, according to Britain's Defence Secretary.
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19-JUL-2021 :: The ''Salami Slicer'' has snaffled up Hong Kong and the World waits on tenterhooks for the inevitable move on Taiwan.
Law & Politics
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Pegasus is better than Epstein @sonaliranade
Law & Politics
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What persuaded our spooks that a future Israeli Govt. would not use the NSO database to blackmail a future Indian Govt.? @sonaliranade
Law & Politics
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Global cases are accelerating, but even so the growth is straightening back to exponential for now. @video4me
Misc.
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19-JUL-2021 :: COVID-19
Misc.
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The Virus remains unresolved. I recall a few months ago every Pharma Co. pronounced how their Vaccine had an efficacy of close enough to 100%.
Today the relative viral loads in the Delta variant infections are 1260 times higher than the 19A/19B strains infections and the same variant ''shows 8 fold approximately reduced sensitivity to vaccine-elicited antibodies compared to wild type Wuhan-1 bearing D614G'' [@GuptaR_lab].
Thread
We now further define Delta immune evasion using a panel of 38 monoclonal antibodies, showing significant loss of potency of NTD and RBD targeting antibodies. @GuptaR_lab
Far from ebbing, the virus has gained virulence and you have to be a Naif to believe the Microbe is licked.
554,753 cases yesterday also above accelerating 485,767/day avg (up 28% past 2wks). @jmlukens
We are now approaching the FIFTH peak in COVID cases and deaths in just sixteen months @greg_travis
Certainly, the Vaccine has mitigated Mortality but lets see for how long because in a hyperconnected World just about everyone has to be vaccinated for the World to reach Herd Immunity. Its just not going to happen.
Still see 70% quoted as level of vaccination required for 'herd immunity'. Important to note it's now likely to be much higher. @AdamJKucharski
The standard (albeit rough) calculation for herd immunity threshold is (1/E) x (1-1/R) where E is vaccine effectiveness in reducing transmission above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population @AdamJKucharski
In scenario where R is 6 (plausible for Delta in susceptible populations without any restrictions), and vaccination reduces infection/infectiousness such that onwards transmission reduced by 85%, above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population. 2/
If transmission reduction is less than this (which is likely the case for some vaccines against Delta), or R higher, then herd immunity wouldn't be achievable through current vaccines alone. @AdamJKucharski
So, my Point is this, our Attention span is short and Many Folks seem to feel we are in the final Act of the COVID-19 Play. I would be limit short that particular narrative.
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Brits dance the night away in nightclubs from midnight as UK finally unlocks #FreedomDay @TheSun
Misc.
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The Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved #COVID19
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Data from #Covid19 worldwide as of July 19: + 465,372 cases in 24 hours @CovidTracker_fr
Misc.
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We emerged from the below captioned 4 weeks ago.
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If you have a "normal" pandemic that is fading, but "variants" that [are] surging, the combined total can look like a flat, manageable situation. @spignal
Misc.
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All Delta >80% countries w/ high vaccination rates New cases, log plot, all headed in the same direction (variation in baseline level, slope of ascent, and current peak) @EricTopol
Misc.
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Far less than the rise in low vaccination countries, but telling as to the challenge that Delta presents
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@my_helix viral sequences. Up to July 8 (collection date). Delta now >80% of sequences in US. @/alexbolze
Misc.
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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett
Misc.
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US 34,730 avg #COVID19 cases/day up 194% past 2wks and accelerating at fastest rate since begining of pandemic. @jmlukens
Misc.
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US 254 avg deaths/day up 18% past 2wks. US deaths per day had been on almost continuous decline since end of January and now appears to be trending up.
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Nations w/ high #COVID19 avg 2wk case/day increase @jmlukens
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Netherlands: 938%
Senegal: 498%
Libya: 497%
Vietnam: 432%
Switzerland: 264%
France: 252%
Malawi: 226%
Italy: 225%
Greece: 221%
Morocco: 220%
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Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It‟s the boiling point. It‟s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards.
Misc.
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The shifting pandemic in one streamplot of reported daily deaths worldwide @Marco_Piani
Misc.
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You get the total daily deaths by adding the num of deaths above the central line (reported in North America & Europe) & those below the central line (reported in Africa, Asia, Oceania, & South America)
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International Markets
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US 10-year Treasury #yield down to 1.16% @jsblokland
World Of Finance
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However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now. 09-MAY-2021 The Markets The Lotos-eaters
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09-MAY-2021 The Markets The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance
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On 8th March when the Bears had gotten hold of the US 10 Year, I wrote that I expected the 10 Year to target 1.45% well we got real close on Friday before the market reversed
Ten- year yields initially plunged to a more than two-month low of 1.46%, then reversed to end the day at 1.58%. However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now.
Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulus I have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.
The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM! I beg to differ
Furthermore The Central Banks are in a corner.
They have fired a lot of bullets and even if there was a meaningful bounce they cannot raise rates.
Here is why central banks are trapped and cannot raise rates even if inflation rises: @dlacalle_IA Feb 2
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The Bullwhip Effect after the great lockdown is often confused with a new and stronger growth trend. @dlacalle_IA
World Of Finance
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19-JUL-2021 :: “We injected monetary heroin into the system.” Richard Fisher
World Of Finance
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The Markets have scorched higher on a tidal wave of practically ''free'' money and in anticipation of the much heralded unleashing of ''pent up'' demand.
Ex-Dallas Fed Pres. Richard Fisher put it: “We injected monetary heroin into the system.” @ClarkiiStomias
Now the only systemic outcomes are withdrawal (asset destruction) or overdose (currency destruction), either of which would lead to the system’s death.
However, there are many discordant notes.
Firstly consider
The Bullwhip Effect after the great lockdown is often confused with a new and stronger growth trend. @dlacalle_IA
Secondly consider the price behaviour
US Bonds across the curve @coloradotravis
I am limit long the US Ultra Bond because I recall Japan and the words of that iconic Eagles song ''Hotel California''
Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said "We are all just prisoners here, of our own device" And in the master's chambers,
They gathered for the feast
They stab it with their steely knives,
But they just can't kill the beast
Last thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
"Relax, " said the night man,
"We are programmed to receive. You can check-out any time you like, But you can never leave! "
And when the Feedback Loop kicks in I expect it to kick big to the downside.
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1763
Dollar Index 93.104
Japan Yen 109.92
Swiss Franc 0.92198
Pound 1.3615
Aussie 0.7299
India Rupee 74.6114
South Korea Won 1153.545
Brazil Real 5.2213
Egypt Pound 15.6696
South Africa Rand 14.69
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Dollar Index Chart INO 93.11
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Euro versus the Dollar Chart 1.1764
World Currencies
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SJFJDUDHSKDNDKDKXKDJEJHFSKEKNDKDIBDMZKSDJSKDNSLSKDKDDNEK FURJEKFBSLSN!!!!!!!!!!!!! @nayibbukele
Misc.
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08-FEB-2021 :: The Markets Are Wilding
World Of Finance
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Magellan's billionaire co-founder Douglass says #bitcoin going to zero. Slammed cryptocurrency mkts as one of greatest mass delusions in modern history @Schuldensuehner
World Of Finance
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The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance
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"Courage!" he said, and pointed toward the land, "This mounting wave will roll us shoreward soon."
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Build a circus and the clowns will come. @NorthmanTrader
World Of Finance
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What the Heck Is Hodl? Bitcoin Lingo for Crypto Noobs
World Currencies
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''Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro."
World Of Finance
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09-MAY-2021 :: The liquidity of this complex is illusory, as the reflexivity embedded within creates a lurking shadow convexity that is vulnerable to predatory flows. @FadingRallies
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WTF @confuses_brothe
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The ‘’Zeitgeist’’ of a time is its defining spirit or its mood. Capturing the ‘’zeitgeist’’ of the Now is not an easy thing because we are living in a dizzyingly fluid moment.
World Of Finance
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.@maxkeiser $BTC @Fredilly
World Of Finance
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As I write this on the 3rd of January 2021 $BTC has touched 35,000.00 in a parabolic shift higher
World Of Finance
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Conclusions
Markets when they retreat always fall much much further than expectations.
I recall Russian Prins falling from 60+ to 6.
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Ponzi algos "AI" bots are everywhere. they are super smart, running the stops. & front the leaked news & pump'n dump & dump'n pump @kerberos007
World Of Finance
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It was the second wave that killed the dip buyers the most @sunchartist
World Of Finance
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Crypto Dip being bought is not much different from the Asian financial crisis (central govt raising rates to protect currency) and the pre-GFC selloff (the entire subprime was $600 bln small in the scheme of things)
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27 NOV 17 "Wow! What a Ride!"
World Of Finance
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$NFLX (daily) @tygotoptions_
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“Theres still a bit of choppiness to our growth,” Chief Financial Officer Spencer Neumann said @YahooFinance $NFLX
World Of Finance
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After shares initially tumbled 6.6% in the wake of Netflix’s earnings report, investors regained their confidence and sent the stock up more than 1% in late trading.
The company added 1.54 million customers in the second quarter.
While that was above the 1.12 million forecast by analysts -- and Netflix’s own estimate of 1 million -- it’s a far cry from the company’s previous growth.
Paired with its additions in the first quarter, Netflix had added about 5.5 million customers
Netflix also forecast Tuesday that it would add 3.5 million in the third quarter, well shy of the 5.86 million analysts had projected.
With the pandemic subsiding, customers are watching less TV this year on average than they did a year ago, the company said.
Netflix’s users are canceling at a lower rather than they did before the pandemic, and its service has only penetrated 20% of all broadband homes in the world.
Netflix, the world’s largest paid streaming service, had warned that 2021 would start slowly after record-seeing growth a year ago.
The company signed up nearly 26 million new customers in the first half of 2020 as people stuck at home during the pandemic flocked to its movies and shows. Netflix surged 67% in 2020 as a result.
“Covid-related production delays in 2020 have led to a lighter first half of 2021 slate that will build through the course of the year,” the company said.
Revenue for the second quarter rose 19% to $7.34 billion, just above analysts’ estimates of $7.32 billion. Earnings grew to $2.97 a share, shy of the $3.14 a share analysts predicted.
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SEP-2019 a ‘’conviction’’ Buy at Friday’s closing price of $270.75. $NFLX
World Of Finance
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My Mind kept to an Article I read in 2012 ‘’Annals of Technology Streaming Dreams’’ by John Seabrook January 16, 2012.
“People went from broad to narrow,” he said, “and we think they will continue to go that way—spend more and more time in the niches— because now the distribution landscape allows for more narrowness’’
Netflix is not a US business, it is a global business. The Majority of Analysts are in the US and in my opinion, these same Analysts have an international ‘’blind spot’’
Once Investors appreciate that the Story is an international one and not a US one anymore, we will see the price ramp to fresh all-time highs.
I, therefore, am putting out a ‘’conviction’’ Buy on Netflix at Friday’s closing price of $270.75.
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20th July 2020 Reiterating conviction BUY $NFLX $498.19
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Crude Oil Chart INO 67.42
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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Emerging market currencies vs the US Dollar year-to-date. @dlacalle_IA
Emerging Markets
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Topography of Africa @topographypix
Africa
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Turning to Africa
Africa
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We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming
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19-JUL-2021 :: Now lets turn to Africa. lets look at the Virus first
Africa
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"Over the past month, #Africa recorded an additional 1 million cases. This is the shortest time it’s taken so far to add one million cases." Dr @MoetiTshidi #COVID19 @WHOAFRO
"Comparatively, it took around three months to move from 4 million to 5 million cases." - Dr @MoetiTshidi #COVID19
From the Africa CDC. (Note: this is based only on official statistics and formal testing, so it undercounts the real situation.) @geoffreyyork
We are on the cusp of the Gladwellian moment
Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It‟s the boiling point. It‟s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards.
“Past next year we will be moving toward endemicity of this virus on our continent and the consequences will be catastrophic,” @JNkengason
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COVID-19 41,684: Average daily number of confirmed cases in Africa in the week to 14 July, 27% higher than the previous peak reached in January. @ONEAftershocks
Africa
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COVID-19 836: Average daily number of confirmed deaths in Africa in the week to 13 July, an increase of over 140% from last month.@ONEAftershocks
Africa
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Drinking the Kool-Aid
Africa
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''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics''
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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett
Africa
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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 27 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa
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8 countries are still at the peak of their infection curve.
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687,367 Active COVID-19 Cases in Africa @BeautifyData [32.0579% above WAVE 2 High from January 2021]
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Active #Covid19 cases record 520,000 was in January 2021 @NKCAfrica
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Is a coup in Ethiopia imminent? @mrubin1971
Africa
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Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was once the toast of the international community. He was young, spoke the language of democracy, and was willing to reverse longtime policy to end the border conflict with Eritrea.
In 2019, he took home the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts.
Today, he is a Nobel embarrassment.
On July 18, 2021, his office issued a statement with the type of ethnic incitement that would make Rwanda’s Hutu génocidaires blush:
He referred to Ethiopia’s Tigrayans as “the cancer of Ethiopia” and called on all Ethiopians “to remove the invasive weed.”
Human rights organizations and journalists say he is systematically seeking to starve the Tigray province, and he has begun closing or seizing businesses owned by the Tigray.
In effect, this replicates what late Ugandan dictator Idi Amin once did with his country’s ethnic Indian population.
Both the war and the internal economic disruption have undercut Ethiopia’s already tenuous economy.
Rashid Abdi, one of the East Africa’s most insightful and perceptive analysts, now reports via twitter,
“Embassies in Addis [Ababa] making contingency plans to move to Nairobi in case situation deteriorates in coming weeks. Economic and financial collapse feared.”
He cited one analyst as suggesting the prospects of an internal coup are very high.
Such a scenario is not farfetched. In last month’s elections, Abiy’s party reportedly won 410 out of 436 seats.
The State Department, however, called the election “flawed” and international elections monitors pointedly refused to call the polls free and fair.
Most opposition remains in prison.
The Tigray Defense Force’s recapture of the Tigray provincial capital Mekelle after Abiy claimed victory is an embarrassment Abiy cannot hide.
Nor, even with the tight control Abiy’s regime holds over the media, can he hide the images of thousands of Ethiopian troops paraded through the capital as prisoners.
This creates a perfect storm for Abiy. The government wants a scapegoat for their failure, and top generals could target Abiy if only to preempt the prime minister targeting them.
Nor is Tigray the only insurgency Ethiopia now faces.
At the same time, the implosion of Ethiopia’s economy means that Abiy is hemorrhaging the support of ordinary Ethiopians in the capital and across the country.
While the Ethiopian Birr is officially 44 to the US dollar, it is trading in the Ethiopian-Somaliland border town of Wajaale at 61 to the dollar, a 38 percent drop.
Abiy’s arrogance toward fellow African leaders and the African Union means that, while none care for the precedent of a violent overthrow, neither would any intercede if members of Abiy’s own entourage pushed Abiy aside.
Regime change in Ethiopia will be internal and may likely come in a matter of weeks rather than years.
Let us hope the White House and State Department are not asleep at the switch, and that the Pentagon is already considering how to achieve a noncombatant evacuation operation for the tens of thousands of American citizens who call Ethiopia home.
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19-JUL-2021 :: Prime Minister of Ethiopia who cloaked his messianic zeal in the language of Mandela 1994 is unlikely to last more than twelve months.
Africa
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In the Horn of Africa the Prime Minister of Ethiopia who cloaked his messianic zeal in the language of Mandela 1994 is unlikely to last more than twelve months.
His Army has been defeated and now he is sending conscripts to slaughter whilst his Adversaries are fighting for their existence.
The Contagion will surely boomerang as far as Asmara and destabilise the Horn of Africa for the forseeable future.
If I could I would be limit short the Ethiopian Birr [It trades at 60 to the $ on the black market]
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#Tigray - 250 days ago PM Abiy claimed the war was a "law enforcement operation" and would "wrap up soon". Delusional them, looks like madness now. @martinplaut
Africa
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Ethiopian and Eritrean armies repulsed; Somalis withdrawn. Now ethnic militia are thrown into the war. A desperate strategy
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November 8, 2020 @PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa
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Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed
PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst
@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province
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The latest information is that the militias have been similarly decimated and it won’t be long before Addis runs out of fuel because the route to Djibouti is going to be cut off imminently @RAbdiAnalyst
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“It wasn't so easy though, ending the war. A war is a huge fire; the ashes from it drift far, and settle slowly.” @MargaretAtwood's The Blind Assassin
Africa
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There is no ENDF capable of fighting anymore. The Ethiopian army has collapsed, will take 10 years to rebuild it to fighting shape. @RAbdiAnalyst
Africa
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Explains why Abiy had to cobble together the army of the wretched drawn from ethnic states to fight in Tigray.
What a depressing state of affairs.
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‘The genie out of the bottle’ @AfricanBizMag
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''War makes for bitter men. Heartless and savage men,” Abiy said in his Nobel prize lecture. @FT @davidpilling
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Ethiopian Birr sinks hitting a record low of 6100 to $100 at Wajaale on Sunday. @yGabobe
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Limit short @yGabobe this could turn exponential to the downside
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19-JUL-2021 :: Now lets turn to Africa.
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Major Economies like South Africa and Ethiopia have tipped. Nigeria is not far behind.
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There is a clear attempt at rendering South Africa ungovernable. To use state paralysis as a bargaining chip to achieve a political objective. Call this what it is, its an insurgency @Pol_Sec_Analyst
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We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point
This week’s violence has stretched the social fabric to breaking point and left the economic powerhouse of the continent on a knife-edge. — Karl Maier
Phase Two: looting was just the start say investigators and intelligence @mailandguardian
https://j.mp/3hP8itT
A source close to Zuma told the M&G that it would be wise to remember that the instigators are soldiers. They know where to hit and how to plan economic sabotage.
“The plan was not for the looting but to hit the white capital that supports [President Cyril] Ramaphosa so that they will go to him and say; ‘Stop what you are doing. This is hurting us now.’ They will now strike where they don’t expect it. Zuma must be released, and Ramaphosa must go,” said the source.
According to an ANC national executive committee (NEC) leader, Ramaphosa was warned by intelligence that this was the first phase of a programme that aims to destabilise the country.
The NEC member said they were told that the instigators are equipped with heavy machinery and the looting is only phase one.
“This is what we are hearing. The second phase is to burn resources and this is what I foresee will happen soon,” said the source.
I am limit short the ZAR
Nigeria of course is in a not dissimilar situation.
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Tourism is a mainstay of South Africa's economy contributed $24.6 billion to the economy in 2019 -- seven percent of GDP -- and employed 759,900 people @YahooFinance
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
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Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 14.69
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar Chart INO 15.66
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NIGERIA ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT — JULY 2021 Overall inflation rate: 17.8% Food inflation rate: 21.8% Unemployment rate: 33.3% Poverty rate: 40.1% GDP Growth rate: 0.51% @StatiSense
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Ghana a 10 year Bond issued with a coupon of 19.75% @moneyinafrica
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
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.@FitchRatings UPGRADES COTE D'IVOIRE TO 'BB-'; OUTLOOK STABLE @IlliquidTrader
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.@FitchRatings Upgrades Cote d'Ivoire to 'BB-'; Outlook Stable
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The upgrade reflects our view that the peaceful March 2021 parliamentary elections show the sustained reduction of political risk.
It also reflects Fitch's expectation that the authorities' continued adherence to fiscal prudence and reforms will gradually reverse the temporary deterioration of the budget balance and stabilise government debt at below the forecast 'BB' median.
The rating also factors in that the Ivoirian economy will resume a strong growth path as the impact of the pandemic fades, low development indicators and comparatively high commodity dependence.
We project the general government (GG) deficit to progressively narrow to 3% of GDP by 2024, in line with the government's record of fiscal prudence and West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) convergence criteria.
The fiscal deficit widened to 5.6% of GDP in 2020 and we project it to remain high at 5.4% in 2021, compared with an average 2.9% over 2017-19.
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TOP IN BUSINESS: Wednesday's @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
World Currencies
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
N.S.E General
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