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Thursday 04th of June 2020
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"Aggressive policy means that the U.S. will need to consider negative interest rates and aggressive government spending, such as spending on infrastructure," for a V-shaped economic recovery: St. Louis Fed economist @lisaabramowicz1
Law & Politics
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Follow the money. Since the Fed opened the sluice gates, the S&P 500 has had the bes 50-day rally in its history. (h/t @bespokeinvest) @johnauthers
World Of Finance
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward
World Of Finance
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An Economic Policy that starts and Ends with Brrrrrrrrrr! Simply fails to comprehend that the ‘’Slaves’’ are now in revolt.
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The only V's are in the stock market and wealth inequality. @NorthmanTrader
World Of Finance
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24-FEB-2020 :: a “V- shaped” recovery #COVID19 [is a FANTASY]
World Of Finance
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The best short trade in the world right now is to set up for a full-scale resumption of US-China trade war. @EpsilonTheory
U.S. Economy
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The Markets are very complacent about A US China ‘’Hot War’’
International Trade
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It has come to a Put Up or Shut Up moment Matters India Taiwan South China Sea et al.
Neither Side have an ‘’Off Ramp’’ and the US Electoral Cycle and the ‘’Wolf Warrior’’ Strategy all point at more intensity rather than less.
The USDCNH is the preeminent way to play the Intensification.
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“If they can get you asking the wrong questions,they don't have to worry about answers.” ― Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow #COVID19
Misc.
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TOTAL COVID-19 CASES WORLDWIDE 6.51 million TOTAL COVID-19 DEATHS WORLDWIDE 384,955 TOTAL RECOVERIES WORLDWIDE 2.74 million
Misc.
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#COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
Market Crashes / Panic
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Record new cases yesterday in #Argentina #Armenia Azerbaijan #Bangladesh #India Iraq #Mexico Mozambique Nepal #Pakistan Venezuela Yemen while Iran had highest in 2 months and Sweden highest in 1 month @RencapMan
Misc.
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LAW & ORDER! @realDonaldTrump
Law & Politics
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.@SalmanRushdie I’ve seen dictators rise and fall. Beware, America. @washingtonpost
Law & Politics
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Salman Rushdie is a novelist.
In my life, I have seen several dictators rise and fall. Today, I’m remembering those earlier incarnations of this unlovely breed.
In India in 1975, Indira Gandhi, found guilty of electoral malpractice, declared a state of emergency that granted her despotic powers.
The “emergency,” as it became known, ended only when she called an election, believing she would win, and was annihilated at the polls.
Her arrogance was her downfall. This cautionary tale formed a part of my novel “Midnight’s Children.”
In Pakistan in 1977, Gen. Mohammed Zia ul-Haq staged a coup against Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and executed him in 1979. This dark story was the inspiration for my novel “Shame.”
The circumstances of my life have given me some understanding of the dictatorial cast of mind.
Extreme narcissism, detachment from reality, a fondness for sycophants and a distrust of truth-tellers, an obsession with how one is publicly portrayed, a hatred of journalists and the temperament of an out-of-control bulldozer: These are some of the characteristics.
President Trump is, temperamentally, a tinpot despot of this type. But he finds himself in charge of a country that has historically thought of itself — by no means always correctly — as being on the side of liberty.
So far, with the collusion of the Republican Party, he has ruled more or less unchecked.
Now an election looms, and he is unpopular, and flails about looking for a winning strategy.
And if that means trampling over American freedoms, then so be it.
I have lived in the United States for 20 years and been a citizen for the past four. One of the most important reasons for becoming a citizen was my admiration for the ideas of freedom embodied in the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
Trump, whose regard for the Second Amendment is well known, needs reminding of the First, which, if I may help, states in part that “Congress shall make no law … abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.”
A moment later, he characterizes the demonstrators as terrorists and characterizes their protests as crimes against God.
He has the pictures to prove it: the fleeing young people, the clouds of tear gas, the line of horses advancing in the name of the Law.
If there’s one thing Trump knows, it’s how to construct an image the cameras will like.
This man who, before he got his present job, was almost never seen inside a house of worship, then holds up a Bible outside a church to demonstrate his piety, and if the bishop of the diocese denounces him soon after, accusing him of misusing the church in the service of “a message antithetical to the teachings of Jesus,” what of it? Once again, he has the pictures, and they speak louder.
We are so inured to the behavior of this man, so used to his lies, his inexhaustible self-regard, his stupidity, that maybe we are tempted to think of this as just another day in Trumpistan. But this time, something different is happening.
The uprising that began with the killing of George Floyd is not fizzling but growing.
The man in the White House is scared, and even, for a time, takes refuge in the basement and turns out the lights. What is such a person to do at such a time?
If he is allowed to use the actions of a tiny minority of criminals and white extremist infiltrators to invalidate the honorable protest of the vast majority against the murder of Floyd, the violence of the police toward the black community and the entrenched power of American racism, he will be on his way to despotism. He has threatened to use the Army against American citizens, a threat one might have expected from a leader of the former Soviet Union, but not of the United States.
In my most recent novel, “Quichotte,” I characterized the present moment as the “Age of Anything-Can-Happen.”
Today I say, beware, America. Don’t believe that it can’t happen here.
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"Ours is the most cryptic of Centuries, it's true Nature a Dark Secret"
Misc.
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I Cannot Remain Silent Our fellow citizens are not the enemy, and must never become so. Mike Mullen Seventeenth chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff @TheAtlantic
Law & Politics
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It sickened me yesterday to see security personnel—including members of the National Guard—forcibly and violently clear a path through Lafayette Square to accommodate the president's visit outside St. John's Church.
I have to date been reticent to speak out on issues surrounding President Trump's leadership, but we are at an inflection point, and the events of the past few weeks have made it impossible to remain silent.
Whatever Trump's goal in conducting his visit, he laid bare his disdain for the rights of peaceful protest in this country, gave succor to the leaders of other countries who take comfort in our domestic strife, and risked further politicizing the men and women of our armed forces.
There was little good in the stunt.
While no one should ever condone the violence, vandalism, and looting that has exploded across our city streets, neither should anyone lose sight of the larger and deeper concerns about institutional racism that have ignited this rage.
As a white man, I cannot claim perfect understanding of the fear and anger that African Americans feel today. But as someone who has been around for a while, I know enough—and I’ve seen enough—to understand that those feelings are real and that they are all too painfully founded.
Even in the midst of the carnage we are witnessing, we must endeavor to see American cities and towns as our homes and our neighborhoods. They are not “battle spaces” to be dominated, and must never become so.
We must ensure that African Americans—indeed, all Americans—are given the same rights under the Constitution, the same justice under the law, and the same consideration we give to members of our own family.
Our fellow citizens are not the enemy, and must never become so.
Too many foreign and domestic policy choices have become militarized; too many military missions have become politicized.
This is not the time for stunts. This is the time for leadership.
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Lincoln Memorial tonight, photographed by @MarthaRaddatz @BeschlossDC [No names. No badges/badge numbers. No identifying insignia. Who are these troops and what legal powers do they have? [@@jonfasman]
Law & Politics
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Pentagon officials say it was the White House, not the Defense Department, pushing for military might in the streets—with Trump seeking details on “tanks” that could be used. @thedailybeast
Law & Politics
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Trump has for days pushed state leaders to take a tougher stance against “antifa” protesters, saying on a call with governors Monday that if they did not mass arrest protesters they would end up looking like “a bunch of jerks.”
Then, Monday evening, the president took it a step further.
Police surrounding Lafayette Park in D.C. cleared protesters with tear gas as the president walked through to St. John’s Episcopal Church to pose for a photo op, with the Bible.
He declared himself the “president of law and order” and said he would take all the necessary steps to suppress the unrest sweeping the country.
“I have strongly recommended to every governor to deploy the national guard in sufficient numbers. If a city or a state refuses to take the actions that are necessary to defend the life and property of their residents, then I will deploy the United States military and quickly solve the problem,” he added.
Esper, along with other cabinet secretaries, stood next to the president during the remarks in the park after participating in an hour-long call with governors in which he said they needed to “dominate the battlespace” to quell the protests.
But three senior Pentagon officials who spoke with The Daily Beast said they viewed the secretary’s comments on the call as a way to publicly show support for the president.
They did not expect the department to actually implement a plan that would reflect the president’s rhetoric and force additional troops upon the states.
(More than 20,000 national guard troops already have been deployed to assist local law enforcement during protests.)
These Pentagon officials added that it was the White House, not the Defense Department, that was pushing for active military might in the streets.
A senior DOD official said it was the White House that requested military helicopters fly low over protesters in D.C. and that it was part of a broader request from the Trump team that the national guard ramp up its presence in the city.
The Associated Press was the first to report about the military flyover being connected to a request from President Trump.
Additionally, the president has pressed aides and Pentagon officials for graphic details on the kind of armored vehicles, military units, aircraft, and even “tanks” that they could potentially send to maintain order in U.S. areas rocked by protests and rioting, according to two people familiar with recent discussions.
One of the sources, a senior administration official, insisted that the president wasn’t ordering tanks to roll down the streets, but was inquiring about “the kind of hardware” that could be used in military shows of force, and at one point Trump threw out the word “tanks.”
“I think that is just one of the military words he knows,” this official said.
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Reuters: POPE IMPLORES GOD FOR "NATIONAL RECONCILIATION AND PEACE FOR WHICH WE ALL YEARN" IN U.S. (Literal request for divine intervention) @Rover829
Law & Politics
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@Potus and @Flotus @nnp_chrissy
Law & Politics
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Nothing is gained by violence and so much is lost. Let us pray for reconciliation and peace. @Pontifex
Law & Politics
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We cannot tolerate or turn a blind eye to racism and exclusion in any form. At the same time, we have to recognize that violence is self-destructive and self-defeating. Nothing is gained by violence and so much is lost. Let us pray for reconciliation and peace.
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“It isn’t cool” Pat Robertson! If nothing panics the @WhiteHouse this should @RightWingWatc
Law & Politics
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Protests Spread Beyond Big Cities, From Raleigh to Santa Rosa @WSJ THIS is political participation that the decrepit two-party system and their crony capitalists can’t control @EpsilonTheory
Law & Politics
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward
Law & Politics
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For Many it has been quite a paradoxical experience, a capsule like experience tuning into the World via broadband receiving semiotic signals and trying to fathom Whether the World has in fact ended.
We learnt that Secret Service Agents rushed President Donald Trump to a White House bunker
Paul Virilo said ‘’Images contaminate us like a Virus’’
The Precipitate Trigger was self-evidently the awful extinction of the life of George Floyd.
However, what I am noticing is a metastatic expansion of this Protest
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#BlackLivesMatter Protests Go Global, From Ireland, to London, to Germany, to Belgium to South Africa, This is New Zealand Flag of New Zealand this morning. @rulajebreal
Law & Politics
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And this is important to note in my opinion. Unemployment Rates are surging everywhere
UK Australia, Canada, Ireland and US unemployment rates
And therefore, The Control Machine which is obsessing with the Stock Market
After a weekend of nationwide civil unrest futures are rioting higher. @NorthmanTrader
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@crescatkevin Valuation mania still unbroken. Average market cap to GDP ratio when bear markets and recessions bottom out: .47 67% lower than today.
Law & Politics
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and an Economic Policy that starts and Ends with Brrrrrrrrrr!
And bailed out Humans to the tune of $1,200.00 for every $25,000.00 per Capita [and this is not unique to the US but is merely an example of a Worldwide Phenomenon].
Simply fails to comprehend that the ‘’Slaves’’ are now in revolt.
This is a moment of Maximum Danger to the Control Machine 02-JUN-2020 Fast Forward
And from London to Washington, from Mumbai to Wuhan, from Beirut to Hong Kong, the Divisionists and Splittists will frame it as a binary choice as one that is Black versus White, China versus US or any other binary iteration You care to mention whereas its much simpler than that.
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“Is it just me or is it getting crazier out there” @The_Mentalyst
Law & Politics
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#BlackLivesMatter protesters in #Paris. @davegreenidge57
Law & Politics
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The futures are up again. I am confident more than ever that history will show that the Fed and its central banker brethren displayed unimaginable levels of incompetence. Smoke 'em while you've got 'em.
World Of Finance
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HKFP obtained rare images from the @HRiChina archive of #Tiananmen Square, 1989 - before and after the crackdown @tomgrundy
China
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7 OCT 19 :: China turns 70
China
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Longing on a large scale makes history.” wrote Don DeLillo and these words streamed into my consciousness as I watched the celebrations in Tiananmen Square, which were marking the 70th anniversary of Chinese Communist Party rule.
Xi Jinping and the party were seeking to project national power and confidence on a grand scale.
Xi’s model is one of technocratic authoritarianism and a recent addition to his book shelf include The Master Algorithm by Pedro Domingos. Xi is building an Algorithmic Society.
The World in the 21st century exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.
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U.S. SET TO BAR CHINESE PASSENGER AIRLINES FROM FLYING TO UNITED STATES -- SOURCES - RTRS @redboxwire @chigrl
Tourism, Travel & Transport
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1218
Dollar Index 97.478
Japan Yen 109.06
Swiss Franc 0.9613
Pound 1.2540
Aussie 0.6906
India Rupee 75.4825
South Korea Won 1217.32
Brazil Real 5.0630
Egypt Pound 16.08
South Africa Rand 16.952
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DXY hammer time - time for a reversal just when all USD bulls have been carried out on stretchers? @themarketear 97.478
World Currencies
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Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.1218
World Currencies
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Gold 6 month INO 1700.00 [Traded soft yesterday]
Commodities
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Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 36.57
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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Brazil records a record 1,349 coronavirus deaths for a single day, confirmed cases close in on 600,000. Death toll now 32,548 and likely to surpass Italy on Thursday, if not Friday. @ReutersJamie
Emerging Markets
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10-MAY-2020 :: ―Brazil is the global epicenter of the coronavirus.
Emerging Markets
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In Brazil we have a toxic mix of a „‟Voodoo‟‟ President @jairbolsonaro and a runaway #COVID19
Brazilians aren‘t infected by anything, even when they fall into a sewer
“It‟s tragic surrealism ... I can‟t stop thinking about Gabriel García Márquez when I think about the situation Manaus is facing.” Guardian
Viruses are in essence non linear exponential and multiplicative and COVID19 has „‟escape velocity‟‟ in Brazil.
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Brazilian real continues huge rally - +3% again today top 5.04/$ ... 5.00 within touching distance vs 6.00 only a few weeks ago. FX rallying far more aggressively than rates. @ReutersJamie
Emerging Markets
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Brazil's first foray into dollar bond market since 2019 appears to be a success drawing $18 bln demand for $3.5 bln of debt. @ReutersJamie
Emerging Markets
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Sells $1.25 bln of 5-year bonds at 3% and $2.25 bln of 10-year bonds at 4%. Via @mdberr01 at IFR.
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Equatorial Guinea has told the World Health Organization (WHO) representative to leave the AFP news agency reports
Africa
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The country accuses Triphonie Nkurunziza of "falsifying" the country's tally of coronavirus cases.
''We don't have a problem with the WHO, we have a problem with the WHO's representative in Malabo," Prime Minister Pascual Obama Asue, is quoted as saying while appearing at the Senate last Friday in remarks broadcast on state television.
AFP quotes a source at the UN office in the capital, Malabo, as saying: "The government has asked her to go, we have received a document - she is accused of falsifying Covid-19 figures".
Dr Nkurunziza is still in Malabo as there are no outbound flights, it reports, adding that the tally of recorded cases put forward by WHO and the government are the same right now.
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Africa Total confirmed COVID-19 cases per million: how rapidly are they increasing? @OurWorldInData
Africa
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Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases per million @OurWorldInData
Africa
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Report #85 የኢትዮጵያ የኮሮና ቫይረስ ሁኔታ መግለጫ @lia_tadesse
Africa
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The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
Africa
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Kano in Nigeria for example
Western Cape growing at an alarming rate @sugan250388
Someone with close knowledge of the medical profession said it was almost impossible to secure a hospital bed in several cities.
The Aga Khan hospital in Dar es Salaam had a well-equipped ward for 80 coronavirus patients, but several were dying each night, he said.
The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?
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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa
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We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.
what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!
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South Africa Top 40 Index is flying this week. Trading just above the 200 Weekly Moving Average. This was a V-correction of note. @Slipcatch
World Of Finance
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Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 16.95
World Currencies
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 16.08
World Currencies
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Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg
World Of Finance
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Pressure on #Nigeria's #naira eases thanks to a recovery in #oil prices and a $3.4bn IMF loan. Will it be enough to prevent another devaluation? @PaulWallace123
World Currencies
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Nigeria All Share Bloomberg
World Of Finance
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
World Of Finance
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Zambia feels the way for distressed nations in seeking debt talks @FinancialTimes @jsphctrl
World Of Finance
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After Argentina defaulted last month in the middle of negotiations with its bondholders, Zambia’s ability to fix what Bwalya Ng’andu, the finance minister, has called the country’s “over-ambition in terms of borrowing” is seen as the next big test of a sovereign borrower’s response to the pandemic.The situation has worsened since the global coronavirus slowdown. Prices for copper, Zambia’s main export, have fallen, leading to a collapse in the value of the Zambia kwacha and the further erosion of its foreign reserves, making US dollar debts even harder to bear.“If they are going to undertake a real debt restructuring, they need the Chinese at the table,” Mr Simumba said.
But Mr Simumba said there was still no clear sign of an offer of debt relief from Beijing, adding that the finance ministry must still work out exactly what is owed.
“They don’t have the full details of their indebtedness to China. A lot of the debt has been acquired directly by the spending ministries.”
Zambia’s repayments to creditors outside the Paris Club surged by more than 1,300 per cent between 2012 and 2019 to about $600m last year, according to figures compiled by the Zambia-focused Institute for Research and Analysis.
Last year it made $143m in debt payments to China ExIm Bank, one of its largest creditors, which has funded high-profile airport and road-building projects, up from $23m in 2012.
Limiting further any drawdowns from Chinese loans that have already been contracted “will be a line in the sand” in a debt restructuring, he added.
“The election that is coming is going to be very tight. If you have an IMF programme, you can’t throw sweets around,” he said.
The government denies the allegations. A spokesperson for Mr Lungu did not respond to a request for comment.
While bondholders and investors are bracing themselves for debt talks, Mr Simumba said he was most worried by what would happen if Zambia’s coronavirus outbreak worsened while the country did not have recourse to an IMF backstop.
“The people who are going to be affected are the poor and the vulnerable,” he said.
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Zambia’s currency collapsed as the COVID-19 crisis hit and copper demand plunged. @FinancialTimes
World Currencies
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Zambia’s FX reserves have plunged to as little as $1bn. @FinancialTimes
World Currencies
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19-APR-2020 :: A Lot of these Loans are not on the Official Register. The Hambantota Moment has arrived
World Of Finance
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Basically China has an Option to buy in SSA Assets at fire-sale Prices.
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December 9, 2019 They are still popping Quaaludes in Lusaka.
World Of Finance
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The End of Vanity China Africa Win Win
Africa
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Total cases have DOUBLED in 13 days to 2216 from 1,109 on 21st May. @MihrThakar
Africa
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Eurobond holders can list Kenya as a defaulter if the country fails to pay any external debt or a guarantee worth more than $25 million (Sh2.6 billion) or gets a moratorium on the foreign loans. @moneyacademyKE
World Of Finance
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The country may also be labelled a defaulter if it sues in court — Business Daily
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The guarantees bit is interesting considering govt guarantees in insolvent state owned companies @moneyacademyKE
World Of Finance
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
World Currencies
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
N.S.E General
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