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We are in the realms of Behavourial Economics. #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
World Of Finance
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A couple dancing in Tiananmen in 1989. @lilkuo
Law & Politics
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The Markets are very complacent about A US China ‘’Hot War’’
China
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It has come to a Put Up or Shut Up moment Matters India Taiwan South China Sea et al.
Neither Side have an ‘’Off Ramp’’ and the US Electoral Cycle and the ‘’Wolf Warrior’’ Strategy all point at more intensity rather than less.
The USDCNH is the preeminent way to play the Intensification.
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It certainly feels like a decade of "semiotic arousal" when everything, it seemed, was a sign, a harbinger of some future radical disjuncture or cataclysmic upheaval.
Misc.
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If you needed a sign, it was delivered tonight. @RedTRaccoon
Misc.
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Morning hues in the Amboseli. Photos by @Panzigo
Tourism, Travel & Transport
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It certainly is a new c21st that we find ourselves in. There is a luminous and Fairy Tale feel to life
Misc.
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“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.” ― Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow #COVID19
Market Crashes / Panic
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“There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.” #COVID19
Market Crashes / Panic
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“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on. ” ― William S. Burroughs #COVID19
Market Crashes / Panic
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Exclusive: Coronavirus began 'as an accident' in Chinese lab, says former MI6 boss #COVID19 @Telegraph
Law & Politics
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A former head of MI6 has said he believes the coronavirus pandemic "started as an accident" when the virus escaped from a laboratory in China.
In an interview with The Telegraph, Sir Richard Dearlove said he had seen an "important" new scientific report suggesting the virus did not emerge naturally but was man-made by Chinese scientists.
But Sir Richard, 75, pointed to a scientific paper published this week by a Norwegian-British research team who claim to have discovered clues within Covid-19's genetic sequence suggesting key elements were "inserted" and may not have evolved naturally.
From the outset, the Chinese government has endeavoured to "lock down" any debate about the origins of the virus and Beijing's handling of the crisis, he claimed.
In their paper, the scientists claim to have identified "inserted sections placed on the SARS-CoV-2 Spike surface" that explain how the virus binds itself to human cells.
He revealed that the Dalgleish/Sorensen paper had been rewritten several times.
An earlier version, seen by The Telegraph, concluded that coronavirus should correctly be called "Wuhan virus" and claimed to have proven "beyond reasonable doubt that the Covid-19 virus is engineered".
A further analysis produced by Prof Dalgleish and his colleagues, due for release in the coming days, claims the Covid-19 virus has "unique fingerprints" that cannot have evolved naturally and are instead "indicative of purposive manipulation".
Entitled "A Reconstructed Historical Aetiology of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike", the new study, seen by The Telegraph, suggests the virus is "remarkably well-adapted virus for human co-existence" and is likely to be the result of a Wuhan lab experiment to produce "chimeric viruses of high potency".
"So I mean, as this debate about the virus develops, I think all this material is going to be in print and is going to embarrass a number of people, I think. Let's suggest that the Chinese maybe have too much say in their journals, in what appears and what doesn't."
"It's a risky business if you make a mistake," he said. "Look at the stories... of the attempts by the leadership to lockdown any debate about the origins of the pandemic and the way that people have been arrested or silenced.
"I mean, we shouldn't really have any doubt any longer about what we're dealing with."
Sir Richard said he did not believe the Chinese had released the virus deliberately, but accused Beijing of subsequently covering up the scale of its spread.
"Of course, the Chinese must have felt, well, if they've got to suffer a pandemic maybe we shouldn't try too hard to stop, as it were, our competitors suffering the same disadvantages we've got," he said.
"Look, the Chinese understand us extremely well. They have made a study of us over the last decade or longer, particularly through attending our universities. We understand the Chinese very poorly. It's an imbalanced relationship in that respect."
"I think the problem with young politicians, and when he was in office he was young, is that they lack experience and they lack depth of knowledge, and I don't think that George Osborne really understood what the leadership of a real communist party is like," Sir Richard said.
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People wearing face masks walk by the river in Wuhan, the Chinese city in which the coronavirus outbreak began CREDIT: Barcroft Media @Telegraph
China
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Wuhan Seafood Market, where experts believe the outbreak started, was sealed off by authorities in the city CREDIT: Sophia Yan @Telegraph
China
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Sir Richard Dearlove tells @Telegraph's Planet Normal podcast that new scientific report suggests key elements of the virus were 'inserted' #COVID19
Law & Politics
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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Market Crashes / Panic
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Biovacc-19: A Candidate Vaccine for Covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2) Developed from Analysis of its General Method of Action for Infectivity B. Sørensen(1), A. Susrud(1), A.G.Dalgleish(2) @Cambridge_Uni H/T @BillyBostickson
Market Crashes / Panic
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We propose that the dual effect general method of action of this chimeric virus’s spike, including receptor binding domain, includes membrane components other than the ACE2 receptor, which explains clinical evidence of its infectivity and pathogenicity.
Cumulative data suggests that the general method of action of this chimeric virus includes membrane components other than the ACE2 receptor, which may explain clinical evidence of its infectivity and pathogenicity.
Our findings confirm (Coutard et al., 2020) that the SARS-CoV-2 contains a furin-like cleavage site absent in CoV of the same clade. Also in Fig 1, Coutard highlight that enriched basic charge associated with this cleavage site are found in a number of viruses such as Human Immunodeficiency Viruses, Influenza, human CytoMegalo Virus (Herpes) and Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Yellow fever, Zika and Ebola.For SARS-CoV-2 the sequence (SPRRAR|S) is longer and more basic than the SARS-CoV (TVSLLR|S) and hence is more potent (Coutard et al., 2020). The mode of action of a furin-like cleavage site is, following endosomal encapsulation, to facilitate attachment and penetration of the inside wall of the endosome to release the uncoated virus into cytosol where it can start replication and release its full pathogenic potential.Furthermore, the Covid-19 pandemic is revealing neurological, haematological and immunological pathogenicity in the virus which cannot be explained by the ACE2 receptor alone. Compromising the function of olfaction and bitter/sweet receptors will effect a timely release of products from the innate immune system, thereby enhancing infectivity and transmission. Several indirect pathways are activated as well, with the release of cytokines and chemokines that recruit the adaptive immune system and begin inflammatory cascades.
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TOTAL COVID-19 CASES WORLDWIDE 6.64 million TOTAL COVID-19 DEATHS WORLDWIDE 390,079 TOTAL RECOVERIES WORLDWIDE 2.81 million
Market Crashes / Panic
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Globally, daily new cases are trending higher and averaging 110,000...@TetotRemi
Market Crashes / Panic
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It took ten days to go from five to six million confirmed cases but now, after only four days we are already halfway to 7 million @TetotRemi
Market Crashes / Panic
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24-FEB-2020 :: "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett
Misc.
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Deaths will reach the 400,000 mark in the next four days...@TetotRemi
Market Crashes / Panic
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''They fancied themselves free'' wrote Camus ―''and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences'' #COVID19
Market Crashes / Panic
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... and there are 3.3 million active cases...@TetotRemi
Market Crashes / Panic
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#COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
Market Crashes / Panic
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Global R is up again >10%: Haiti⁸⁶ >5%: Pakistan¹⁸ Sweden²⁵ Oman⁴⁷ Iraq⁶¹ Azerbaijan⁶⁷ Nepal⁸⁸ Kenya⁹⁰ Venezuela⁹⁴ @video4me
Market Crashes / Panic
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Djibouti the 1st in Africa to record 200 active cases per 100k and Gabon becomes 3rd to record 100@RencapMan
Africa
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Record new cases in #Argentina #Arkansas (US) Azerbaijan Ethiopia #India Iraq Iran (highest in 2 months) Madagascar #Mexico #Pakistan Panama #Sweden (added lost cases)
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Big rises in active cases per capita in the last week in #SA, #Egypt and Mauritania, also #Bangladesh, #Pakistan and #Nepal We think active cases are significantly understated in #Mexico and #Nigeria as well @RencapMan
Emerging Markets
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This memo from Gen. Milley is pretty interesting--I'd even say startling. @BillKristol
Law & Politics
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward The scene at The White House
Law & Politics
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The Nazi reference by Mattis. He knew exactly what he was saying. @csdickey
Law & Politics
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward
Law & Politics
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World via broadband receiving semiotic signals and trying to fathom Whether the World has in fact ended.
We learnt that Secret Service Agents rushed President Donald Trump to a White House bunker
Paul Virilo said ‘’Images contaminate us like a Virus’’
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The Precipitate Trigger was self-evidently the awful extinction of the life of George Floyd. However, what I am noticing is a metastatic expansion of this Protest #BlackLivesMatter Protests Go Global From Ireland, to London, to Germany, to Belgium to Sou
Law & Politics
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And this is important to note in my opinion. Unemployment Rates are surging everywhere
UK Australia, Canada, Ireland and US unemployment rates
And therefore, The Control Machine which is obsessing with the Stock Market
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After a weekend of nationwide civil unrest futures are rioting higher. @NorthmanTrader @crescatkevin Valuation mania still unbroken. Average market cap to GDP ratio when bear markets and recessions bottom out: .47 67% lower than today.
Law & Politics
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and an Economic Policy that starts and Ends with Brrrrrrrrrr!
And bailed out Humans to the tune of $1,200.00 for every $25,000.00 per Capita [and this is not unique to the US but is merely an example of a Worldwide Phenomenon].
Simply fails to comprehend that the ‘’Slaves’’ are now in revolt.
This is a moment of Maximum Danger to the Control Machine 02-JUN-2020 Fast Forward
And from London to Washington, from Mumbai to Wuhan, from Beirut to Hong Kong, the Divisionists and Splittists will frame it as a binary choice as one that is Black versus White, China versus US or any other binary iteration You care to mention whereas its much simpler than that.
It is about the Haves and the Have Nots. Its about the moment of Epiphany when the Have Nots appreciate the predicament in which they have been placed and identify with each other rather than a ‘’boogaloo’’ structure that has been placed upon them.
Will they have that moment of Epiphany? Well There certainly has not been a more ‘’conducive’’ moment.
I would argue that Civil unrest levels are now globally at unprecedented levels that COVID19 was a circuit breaker and that ‘’Risk’’ is now blinking amber and that there remains a remarkable complacency around this risk which Paul Virilio described thus
Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’
The Markets are very complacent about A US China ‘’Hot War’’
it has come to a Put Up or Shut Up moment Matters India Taiwan South China Sea et al. Neither Side have an ‘’Off Ramp’’ and the US Electoral Cycle and the ‘’Wolf Warrior’’ Strategy all point at more intensity rather than less.
The USDCNH is the preeminent way to play the Intensification.
As at May 31st because Weekends typically bias lower and are noisy
May 31 via Stephen Streater
Global R accelerates, led by Brazil2. SA29 a persistent climber. UK5 R climbing. >+5%: Brazil2 South Africa29 Colombia31 Egypt36 Afghanistan45 Oman51 Nigeria53 Cameroon66 Sudan69 Guatemala70 Djibouti77 Kenya94 Haiti98
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Let them eat QE. @NorthmanTrader
World Of Finance
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China grows ‘more assertive’ in world politics as the U.S. leaves behind a vacuum, ex-diplomat says @CNBC H/T @hervegogo
China
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China has been flexing its geopolitical muscles as countries around the world grapple with the coronavirus pandemic — a reflection of Beijing’s belief that “China’s time has come,” a former U.S. diplomat said on Thursday.
In addition to pressing ahead with a new national security law for Hong Kong, China has toughened its stance on Taiwan — which it considers a wayward province that must be reunited with the mainland.
Beijing has also kept up its aggression in the disputed waters of South China Sea and recently, at its border with India.
“China is being more assertive in pursuing goals that we know that it’s had in a number of decades,” Robert Daly, director of the Wilson Center’s Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”
“So clearly, this is an assertion of strength and it reflects a belief that China’s time has come, combined with the fact that this may be seen as a very good opportunity when America seems to have lost interest in global leadership and when there’s distraction from the coronavirus,” he added.
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward
Market Crashes / Panic
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The Markets are very complacent about A US China ‘’Hot War’’it has come to a Put Up or Shut Up moment Matters India Taiwan South China Sea et al.
Neither Side have an ‘’Off Ramp’’ and the US Electoral Cycle and the ‘’Wolf Warrior’’ Strategy all point at more intensity rather than less.
The USDCNH is the preeminent way to play the Intensification
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1347
Dollar Index 96.678
Japan Yen 109.14
Swiss Franc 0.9562
Pound 1.2610
Aussie 0.6972
India Rupee 75.4065
South Korea Won 1210.08
Brazil Real 5.1188
Egypt Pound 16.2378
South Africa Rand 16.85
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Dollar Index @xxxtruth1 96.678
World Currencies
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Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.1347 [what a Rally]
World Currencies
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Gold 6 month INO 1710.00
Commodities
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Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 37.41
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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El presidente brasileño, @jairbolsonaro aseguró, que quienes promueven protestas sociales en su país "son marginales, bajo mi punto de vista, son terroristas" @teleSURtv
Emerging Markets
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10-MAY-2020 :: ―Brazil is the global epicenter of the coronavirus.
Emerging Markets
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In Brazil we have a toxic mix of a „‟Voodoo‟‟ President @jairbolsonaro and a runaway #COVID19
Brazilians aren‘t infected by anything, even when they fall into a sewer
“It‟s tragic surrealism ... I can‟t stop thinking about Gabriel García Márquez when I think about the situation Manaus is facing.” Guardian
Viruses are in essence non linear exponential and multiplicative and COVID19 has „‟escape velocity‟‟ in Brazil.
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Brazil is the country seeing the most daily cases,currently adding more cases daily than the US...@TetotRemi
Emerging Markets
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Emerging Markets account for 1.5 million cases globally...@TetotRemi
Emerging Markets
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10-MAY-2020 :: ― We are witnessing a Spill Over into EM and Frontier Geographies
Emerging Markets
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Latin America with daily cases being confirmed at an average of 37,000...@TetotRemi
Market Crashes / Panic
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India is currently the country with the most daily confirmed cases in Asia..@TetotRemi
Asia
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“No agreement has been reached whatsoever to allocate a piece of land for Egyptian military base in the territory of the Republic of South Sudan.” -Raphael Nhail. @EyeRadioJuba [i would take the opposite side]
Law & Politics
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Africa just crossed the 100,000 cases mark...@TetotRemi
Africa
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Africa ... with daily cases trending...@TetotRemi
Africa
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54 African Union Member States reporting 163,599 cases, 4,611 deaths, and 70,894 recoveries. @AfricaCDC
Africa
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VIDEO: Madagascar anti-lockdown protests flare after alleged police violence. @AFP
Law & Politics
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Scuffles broke out between Madagascar police and protesters as citizens took to the streets in the eastern town of Toamasina to denounce anti-coronavirus lockdown measures
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cc @SE_Rajoelina What happened?
Law & Politics
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Fast Forward
Law & Politics
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However, what I am noticing is a metastatic expansion of this Protest
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US,Paris,Hong Kong,Madagascar #summerofriots @wmiddelkoop
Market Crashes / Panic
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The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
Africa
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Kano in Nigeria for example
Western Cape growing at an alarming rate @sugan250388
Someone with close knowledge of the medical profession said it was almost impossible to secure a hospital bed in several cities.
The Aga Khan hospital in Dar es Salaam had a well-equipped ward for 80 coronavirus patients, but several were dying each night, he said.
The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?
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South Africa leading the continent...@TetotRemi
Africa
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Based on yesterday's results, our Positive Hit Rate for the day was 9.416% (5-DMA: 8.210%). @Slipcatch
Africa
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Based on yesterday's results, our Tests needed for 1 Positive Result was 10.6 (5-DMA: 12.4). @Slipcatch
Africa
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The number of people in ICU beds with the coronavirus in South Africa has increased by 45% over the past 10 days. Current total: 219. @geoffreyyork
Africa
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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa
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We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.
what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!
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President John @MagufuliJP has blasted #Kenya for its lockdown and urges Tanzanians to hike prices on foodstuffs when selling to Kenya. @thomashcollins1
Africa
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He has ignored calls from regional leaders, missing EAC meetings to deal with Covid-19, dealing a further blow to regional integration.
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"But yesterday the conflict resurfaced": Kenyan authorities at the Namanga border post refuse to recognise COVID19 test certificates of Tanzanian truck drivers @RichardHumphri1
Africa
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The African @jairbolsonaro is of course @MagufuliJP
Law & Politics
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Dakar/Sénégal @Sydogasy
Africa
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Africa’s Junk Bonds Among Hottest Investments With Big Yields @markets
World Of Finance
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Africa’s sovereign bonds -- all of them rated junk -- have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the risk-on mood that’s sweeping global markets as economies reopen from coronavirus lockdowns.
Seven of the 12 top-performing emerging-markets this quarter are in Africa. Angola, which is in discussions to reorganize some of its loans, leads the pack with a return of 74%, compared with the 9.5% average for the 74-member Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets Sovereign Index.
Zambia, which is restructuring its debt, isn’t far behind at 40%.
Investors, flush with cash and in need of yield following unprecedented policy easing by the world’s central banks, appear to be blind to the array of risks
: the coronavirus pandemic that’s still spreading in most African countries, economies hard-hit by the disease and U.S.-China tensions that may revive the debilitating trade war.
“In line with the global risk-on mood, African hard-currency bonds alongside equities have been on a tear,” said Neville Mandimika and Daniel Kavishe, analysts at Rand Merchant Bank in a note to clients. “Markets have shrugged off these concerns.”
Gabon and Nigeria posted returns of more than 30% this quarter, while Ghana, South Africa and Egypt are deep into double digits.
Average yields on African sovereign dollar bonds declined 234 basis points since the beginning of May to 8.19%, according to the Standard Bank Africa Sovereign Yield Index.
While momentum is carrying the rally at present, the pace of gains could slow in months ahead if the risks worsen, Mandimika and Kavishe said.
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
World Of Finance
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Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 16.8533
World Currencies
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 16.2370
World Currencies
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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Two more people infected with #Ebola in new Congo outbreak, @WHO says @ReutersAfrica
Africa
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“The latest person confirmed with Ebola attended the burial of one of the first cases, but was detected in the town of Bikoro, 150 kilometres away from Mbandaka,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told journalists.
“This means that two health zones are now affected.”
Mbandaka suffered a small Ebola outbreak in 2018 in which 33 people died. The use of a vaccine and swift containment efforts including mobile handwashing stations and a door-to-door education campaign kept it at bay.
On Wednesday almost 50 health workers from WHO and its partners arrived in Mbandaka with 3,600 doses of Ebola vaccine and 2,000 cartridges for lab testing, Tedros said.
The Ebola virus causes hemorrhagic fever and is spread through direct contact with body fluids from an infected person, who suffers severe vomiting and diarrhoea.
Ebola is endemic to Congo whose Ebola river gave the virus its name when it was discovered there in 1976.
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On top of all that we know have an Ebola Outbreak in DR Congo Fast Forward
Africa
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On top of all that we know have an Ebola Outbreak in DR Congo Congo declares new Ebola epidemic, 1,000 km from eastern outbreak Reuters
Democratic Republic of Congo declared a new Ebola epidemic on Monday in the western city of Mbandaka, more than 1,000 km (620 miles) away from an ongoing outbreak of the same deadly virus in the east.Health Minister Eteni Longondo said
four people who died in Mbandaka were confirmed as positive cases following testing at the national biomedical laboratory in the capital Kinshasa.
“We have a new Ebola epidemic in Mbandaka,” Longondo told reporters. “We are going to very quickly send them the vaccine and medicine.”
The outbreak was confirmed by World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who tweeted: “This outbreak is a reminder that #COVID19 is not the only health threat people face.”
Congo has been struggling to put an end to a nearly two-year-old Ebola outbreak near its eastern borders with Rwanda and Uganda, which has killed more than 2,200 people, the world’s second-deadliest outbreak of the disease on record.
It was days away in April from declaring the end of that outbreak, its tenth since the virus was discovered in 1976, when a new chain of infection was confirmed in the east.
However, no new cases have been detected there in over 30 days. Ebola Virus The first known emergence of Ebola Zaire—the hottest subtype of Ebola virus— happened in September, 1976, when the virus erupted simultaneously in fifty-five villages near the Ebola River.
Ebola Zaire is a slate-wiper in humans. It killed eighty- eight per cent of the people it infected. Apart from rabies and the human immunodeficiency virus, H.I.V., which causes aids, this was the highest rate of mortality that has been recorded for a human virus.
Ebola was spread mainly among family members, through contact with bodily fluids and blood.
Many of the people in Africa who came down with Ebola had handled Ebola-infected cadavers.
It seems that one of Ebola’s paths wends to the living from the dead.These remain precarious times.
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Kenya farmers face uncertain future as Covid-19 cuts exports to EU @FT @AntoanetaRoussi
Kenyan Economy
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Shipments of flowers, vegetables, herbs and fruits to the European Union, which accounts for more than 80 per cent of horticulture exports from Kenya, all but ceased in March after European capitals, roiled by the spread of Covid-19, locked down and Kenya suspended most international flights.
By April, Kenya’s horticulture industry was losing about $3.5m a day, according to the Fresh Produce Exporters Association of Kenya.
As European countries have begun to ease restrictions, some demand has returned and losses have reduced to about $1m a day, but the outlook remains bleak.
“Kenyan farms have drastically reduced export volumes to 50 per cent, with a sizeable number suspending exports altogether,” said Hosea Machuki, chief executive officer of FPEAK.
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Now @KenyaBreweries cautions against a proposed revision of excise tax that will increase the price of Senator beer by 35%, affecting thousands of sorghum farmers & jobs and make their new Kisumu plant unviable. @bankelele
Kenyan Economy
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A similar tax change in 2013 led to a surge of illicit brews.
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East African Breweries Ltd.share price data
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
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Closing Price: 166.00 Market Capitalization: 131,268,543,096 EPS:11.23 PE:14.782
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KCB’s tally of loans restructured due to the Covid-19 pandemic has risen to exceed Sh120 billion. The amount has jumped 50% from the Sh80 billion recorded in the first week of May. @moneyacademyKE
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
World Currencies
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
N.S.E General
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