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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 09th of June 2020
 
Morning
Africa

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08-JUN-2020 :: Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom.
World Of Finance



“Anybody can be decisive during a panic; it takes a strong man to act during a boom.” ― V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River

“The businessman bought at ten and was happy to get out at twelve; the mathematician saw his ten rise to eighteen, but didn’t sell because he wanted to double his ten to twenty.”


For some reason, I keep returning to VS Naipaul. I have always been an avid Reader and Naipaul notwithstanding what some Folks considered a vicious cruel streak [One of my Aunties who was an avowed Socialist was criticized for buying her underwear at Marks and Spencer’s in one of his books and to this day I don’t understand why a Socialist should not be permitted to wear proper underwear], I have always found him to be a beautiful and lyrical Writer who spoke to my own lived experience.

Who has not thought

“Look, boys, it ever strike you that the world not real at all? It ever strike you that we have the only mind in the world and you just thinking up everything else? Like me here, having the only mind in the world, and thinking up you people here, thinking up the war and all the houses and the ships and them in the harbour. That ever cross your mind?” 
 ― V.S. Naipaul, Miguel Street




However, I started with A Bend in the River and not because Ebola was on my mind which it was because This is surely The Year of the Virus and Ebola [in case you had forgotten has been resurfacing], nor because the bend in the river is set in the Congo.

The River Kinshasa



But because in that Book, Salim describes the BOOM!

And watching the Markets unfold, the ‘’Kisingani’’ Boom that Salim experienced came to my mind.


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The Nasdaq closed at a record V shape recovery. No one anticipated it. Nasdaq hits all time high. @MadhusudanSara5
World Of Finance


Widening divergence between profits and stock prices via @ISABELNET_SA @SoberLook @GregDaco

Of course President Trump is doing high fives!

The Optics however...

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Brutal @GeorgeTakei
World Of Finance


Of course The Federal Reserve has been pumping its balance Sheet $7.2 Trillion last

The Fed has taken an extraordinary amount of actions in response to the #COVID19 shock. Their response has been far superior to the #GFC. Since March 9, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet in a staggering 70%. @econchart

But who wants to be a Killjoy because Killjoys get carried out in the BOOM? Just ask Tiger Management’s Julian Robertson.


The Precipitate Trigger for the Surge Friday was of course the US Jobs report.

Employers added 2.5 million workers to their payrolls in May, trouncing forecasts for a 7.5 million decline. The jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to 13.3% from 14.7% as states began re-opening their economies.


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A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is. Here’s what happened. @washingtonpost
U.S. Economy


When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.

The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May.

The BLS admitted that some people who should have been classified as “temporarily unemployed” during the shutdown were instead misclassified as employed but “absent” from work for “other reasons.”

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Just weeks after the stock market crashed in 1929, President Herbert Hoover assured the country that things were already “back to normal,” Liaquat Ahamed writes in Lords of Finance
U.S. Economy



Five months later, in March 1930, Hoover said the worst would be over “during the next 60 days.”

When that period ended, he said, “We have passed the worst.”

Eventually, Ahamed writes, “when the facts refused to obey Hoover’s forecasts, he started to make them up.”

Government agencies were pressed to issue false data. Officials resigned rather than do so, including the chief of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And we all know how that turned out: The Great Depression.


Is this going to rain on President Trump’s Parade? Probably not

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An Oscillation within Uyipa
World Of Finance



Global oil demand is still expected to contract by around 9 mb/d for the whole of 2020 according to the Opec secretariat-

OPEC+ deal based on outcome today. @JRJ_ALHAJRI


Crude Oil Chart @TamirTiko2110 [I am looking to SELL]

Precious Metals YTD

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Las Vegas is officially back. @ArashMarkazi
U.S. Economy


The Markets believe it’s a V [but is it?]

EXPECT MORE BRRR!

COVID19

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[and Now] at a rate of more than 100,000 a day over a seven-day average @CNN
Market Crashes / Panic


Newly reported cases reached a high of 130,400 on June 3.


In the last two weeks, the cumulative number of confirmed #COVID19 cases has grown by: • 88% in South America • 70% in Africa • 42% in Asia • 21% in North America • 13% in Europe • 2% in Oceania @edouad

The number of daily new cases is rising continuously in many large countries.


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Welcome to China’s new interventionist foreign policy @washingtonpost @charlesduns
China

On May 13, the Chinese Embassy in Brasilia wrote to Brazil’s congress, recommending the body’s silence on the reelection of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen — essentially demanding adherence to the “One China” policy. 

Yet, as the CCP’s overstepping in Brazil confirms, the era of Chinese nonintervention is now over.

Since 1955, China had predicated its foreign policy on the principles of noninterference, which Premier Zhou Enlai detailed at the Bandung Conference. 

This noninterference won over strongman leaders who tired of the human rights-related “strings” that the West regularly attaches to aid.“In the past, China kept a very low profile when it came to elections and domestic politics in Cambodia,” said Cambodian analyst Chheang Vannarith. “This time, China is being very assertive.”Beijing has proved that it will readily disregard its partners’ sovereignty whenever Chinese interests are on the line. Global leaders must now realize that when the domestic rubber meets the road, China will not hesitate to intervene — its promises be damned.

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7 OCT 19 :: China turns 70
China



The pomp and pageantry included a parade that involved 15,000 soldiers and sailors, 160 planes, 580 tanks and other weaponry including what Hu Xijin [President Xi’s trusted mouth-piece] described as 

‘’This is the legendary DF41 ICBM. But it is not a tale. Today it is displayed at Tiananmen Square I touched one about four years ago in the production plant. No need to fear it. Just respect it and respect China that owns it’’.



The President for Life was seeking to project a sense of inevitable forward motion and a fulfilment of the promise that Mao Zedong made on the founding of the People’s Re- public of China on October 1, 1949 that China would stand up.

They have “stood up.” Xi’s model is one of technocratic authoritarianism and a recent addition to his book shelf include The Master Algorithm by Pedro Domingos. 

Xi is building an Algorithmic Society.


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After performing self-criticism and acknowledging the primacy of Xi Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, UQ has dropped all charges and made my Dad’s fruit shop UQ’s official fruit dispensary! @DrewPavlou
China

I’m happy to announce I’ve come to a grand bargain with UQ. After performing self-criticism and acknowledging the primacy of Xi Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, UQ has dropped all charges and made my Dad’s fruit shop UQ’s official fruit dispensary!

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"A Wall Street Journal analysis found that, across the country, the virus has spread more widely in places with the most crowded households, not necessarily places with the largest or densest populations." @mims
Market Crashes / Panic

"The virus has spread more widely in places with the most crowded households, not necessarily places with [density]. Remote, rural hamlets where extended families live under the same roof have turned deadlier than some of the densest blocks of Manhattan"

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Coronavirus may have been created in a Wuhan lab ‘genetic engineering’ experiment @newscomauHQ @SharriMarkson #COVID19
China



The first curious characteristic of COVID-19 is that the virus binds to human ACE2 receptor cells more strongly than it does to any other animal, including bats.

The second unusual thing about the virus that causes COVID-19 is that it has what’s called a “furin cleavage site” that its closest genetic bat-coronavirus relative, RaTG-13, does not have.

Israeli geneticist, Dr Ronen Shemesh, who is working on a treatment for COVID-19, said in his opinion the virus was more likely created in a laboratory than evolved in nature.

“There are many reasons to believe that the COVID-19 generating SARS-CoV-2 was generated in a lab. Most probably by methods of genetic engineering,” he told Sky News.



“I believe that this is the only way an insertion like the furin protease cleavage site could have been introduced directly at the right place and become effective.”

Dr Shemesh points to the insertion of a furin site as the most unusual aspect of COVID-19.

“I believe that the most important issue about the differences between all coronavirus types is the insertion of a furin protease cleavage site at the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2,” he said.

“Such an insertion is very rare in evolution, the addition of such four amino acids alone in the course of only 20 years is very unlikely.”


“What makes it even more suspicious is that fact that this insertion not only occurred on the right place and in the right time, but also turned the cleavage site from an serine protease cleavage site to a furin cleavage site,” he said.


“This protein cleaving protein is highly promiscuous, it's found in many human tissues and cell types and is involved in many other virus types activation and infection mechanisms (it is involved in HIV, herpes, ebola and dengue virus mechanisms).

“If I was trying to engineer a virus strain with a higher affinity and infective potential to humans, I would do exactly that: I would add a furin cleavage site directly at the original less effective and more cell specific cleavage site.”



La Trobe University Chemistry and Physics Professor David Winkler said there were several possibilities for the source of COVID-19 and you cannot rule out the laboratory as one option.

“On the basis of the calculations we’ve done, you can’t exclude that it’s been processed through human cells in a biosecurity lab – but it’s certainly not the only explanation,” he said.


“One of the possibilities is that an animal host was infected by two coronaviruses at the same time and COVID-19. The same process can happen in a petri-dish.

“In other words COVID-19 could have been created from that recombination event in an animal host or it could have occurred in a cell-culture experiment.

"If intermediate animal hosts were present at the market, no evidence remains in the genetic samples available,” she said.

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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
China



What is clear is that the #COVID19 was bio-engineered. for those with a modicum of intellectual interest. This information is being deliberately suppressed.

“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.”

“There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”


“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on. ”

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Norsk forsker skaper strid om virusets opphav: – Dette viruset har ikke en naturlig opprinnelse
Market Crashes / Panic


Norwegian scientist creates dispute over the origin of the virus: - This virus does not have a natural origin

Sequences in the surface of the coronavirus indicate that it does not come from nature, but is probably developed by Chinese and American scientists. 

The research duo also points out that the virus has hardly mutated since it began to infect humans, suggesting that it was already fully adapted to humans. According to Sørensen, this is quite unusual for viruses that cross species barriers.

According to Sørensen, the virus has properties that differ greatly from SARS, and which have never been detected in nature.

- When we technically describe the virus, we see that it has not come about in a natural development. It's done by Americans and Chinese, as part of what's called "gain of function" studies. It is done all over the world. You say you don't, but it happens all the time in advanced labs, according to Sørensen.

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INSERTS: Dette er sekvensene Sørensen mener peker mot at viruset ikke har naturlig opphav. Sekvensene ble først beskrevet av kinesiske forskere. FOTO: FAKSIMILE / QRB DISCOVERY QUARTERLY
Market Crashes / Panic

INSERTS: These are the sequences Sørensen thinks point to the virus having no natural origin. The sequences were first described by Chinese scientists.

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Satellite data suggests coronavirus #COVID19 may have hit China earlier: Researchers @abcnews
China


Dramatic spikes in auto traffic around major hospitals in Wuhan last fall suggest the novel coronavirus may have been present and spreading through central China long before the outbreak was first reported to the world, according to a new Harvard Medical School study.

Using techniques similar to those employed by intelligence agencies, the research team behind the study analyzed commercial satellite imagery and "observed a dramatic increase in hospital traffic outside five major Wuhan hospitals beginning late summer and early fall 2019," according to Dr. John Brownstein, the Harvard Medical professor who led the research.

“Something was happening in October,” said Brownstein, the chief innovation officer at Boston Children’s Hospital and director of the medical center’s Computational Epidemiology Lab.Though Chinese officials would not formally notify the World Health Organization until Dec. 31 that a new respiratory pathogen was coursing through Wuhan, U.S. intelligence caught wind of a problem as early as late November and notified the Pentagon, according to four sources briefed on the confidential information.“What we're trying to do is look at the activity, how busy a hospital is,” Brownstein said. “And the way we do that is by counting the cars that are at that hospital. Parking lots will get full as a hospital gets busy. So more cars in a hospital, the hospital's busier, likely because something's happening in the community, an infection is growing and people have to see a doctor. So you see the increases in the hospital business through the cars… We saw this across multiple institutions.”Starting with nearly 350 images captured by private satellites circling the globe, Brownstein’s study first examined traffic and parking outside major hospitals in Wuhan for the past two years. 

On Oct. 10, 2018, there were 171 cars in the parking lot of Wuhan’s Tianyou Hospital, one of the city’s largest. 

A year later, satellites recorded 285 cars -- a 67% increase, according to the data reviewed by the researchers and shared with ABC News.


Other hospitals showed up to a 90% increase when comparing traffic between fall of 2018 and 2019, according to the study. 

“If you look at all of the images, observations we've ever had of all of these locations since 2018, almost all of the highest car counts are all in the September through December 2019 time frame,” said Tom Diamond, president of RS Metrics, which worked with the Brownstein research team.They said they found a marked change. “The images validate the concept that activity and movement is shown through the lens of these sort of parking lots,” said Brownstein.
“At all the larger hospitals in Wuhan, we measured the highest traffic we’ve seen in over two years during the September through December 2019 time frame,” Diamond said

“Our company is used to measuring tiny changes, like 2% to 3% growth in a Cabella’s or Wal-Mart parking lot. That was not the case here. Here, there is a very clear trend.”

Former acting Homeland Security Undersecretary John Cohen, who oversaw DHS intelligence operations during the Obama administration, said the new research suggests that COVID-19, which has already killed more than 110,000 Americans, was likely brought to the U.S. by travelers from Wuhan long before it was detected.

Sources familiar with the reports said NCMI, a component of the military’s Defense Intelligence Agency, based the analysis on wire and computer intercepts coupled with satellite images similar to those used by Brownstein’s team.In March, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post newspaper, citing Chinese government data, reported that the first case of COVID-19 could be traced back to November 17, 2019. 
Around the time the hospital traffic was surging, there was a spike in online traffic in the Wuhan region among users asking China’s Baidu search engine for information on “cough” and “diarrhea.”

“While queries of the respiratory symptom ‘cough’ show seasonal fluctuations coinciding with yearly influenza seasons, ‘diarrhea’ is a more COVID-19-specific symptom and only shows an association with the current epidemic,” according to the study. 

“The increase of both signals precede the documented start of the COVID-19 pandemic in December.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1259

Dollar Index 96.891

Japan Yen 107.833

Swiss Franc 0.9558

Pound 1.2669

Aussie 0.6915

India Rupee 75.5876

South Korea Won 1200.59

Brazil Real 4.8226

Egypt Pound 16.1818

South Africa Rand 16.85

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The takeover of @mdcZimbabwe HQ Harvest House, assault of a youth leader & arrest of several party leaders, incl. @BitiTendai demonstrates again that #Zimbabwe govt is focused on crushing political opposition @SenateForeign
Law & Politics

The takeover of @mdcZimbabwe HQ Harvest House, assault of a youth leader & arrest of several party leaders, incl. @BitiTendai demonstrates again that #Zimbabwe govt is focused on crushing political opposition rather than remedying economic crisis, COVID19 & humanitarian despair

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Today the parallel market rate has traded between 80 & 85 .In mid May 2020 it was 40 .An increase of 100% in 3 weeks reflects the black market implosion @bititendai
World Currencies

The restrictive measures by the Central Bank are corroding the ZWL$ & therefore self defeating .They have run out of ideas

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21-JAN-2019 :: The Mind Game that ZANU-PF played on its citizens has evaporated in a puff of smoke
Law & Politics


I have been reading Yuval Noah Harari and in his best-seller he says this about money;

“Money is accordingly a system of mutual trust, and not just any system of mutual trust: money is the most universal and most efficient system of mutual trust ever devised.”

“Cowry shells and dollars have value only in our common imagina- tion. Their worth is not inherent in the chemical structure of the shells and paper, or their colour, or their shape. In other words, money isn’t a material reality – it is a psychological construct. It works by converting matter into mind.”

The Point I am seeking to make is that There is a correlation between high Inflation and revolutionary conditions, Zimbabwe is a classic example where there are $9.3 billion of Zollars in banks compared to $200 million in reserves, official data showed.

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The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
Africa


Kano in Nigeria for example
Western Cape growing at an alarming rate @sugan250388
Someone with close knowledge of the medical profession said it was almost impossible to secure a hospital bed in several cities.
The Aga Khan hospital in Dar es Salaam had a well-equipped ward for 80 coronavirus patients, but several were dying each night, he said.
The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?



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We are now finding a positive case for every 9 tests conducted, dropping below the 10 tests per case threshold for the first time @rid1tweets
Africa

Even with the change in testing priority in Western Cape, the positivity rate is a concern and should raise a red flag according to global standards. We are now finding a positive case for every 9 tests conducted, dropping below the 10 tests per case threshold for the first time

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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa



We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.

what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!




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There is something Karmic in this #COVID19
Africa

It lurks everywhere and in silence

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There have now been nine confirmed cases and three probable cases of the disease in and around Mbandaka, the @WHO Six of those people have died, it added @ReutersAfrica
Africa

Genetic sequencing of the virus by Congo’s biomedical research laboratory showed the new outbreak is likely to have started as a “spillover event”, a transmission from an infected animal, according to research published on virological.org, a molecular evolution and epidemiology forum.

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The first known emergence of Ebola Zaire—the hottest subtype of Ebola virus— happened in September, 1976
Africa


The first known emergence of Ebola Zaire—the hottest subtype of Ebola virus— happened in September, 1976, when the virus erupted simultaneously in fifty-five villages near the Ebola River. 

Ebola Zaire is a slate-wiper in humans. It killed eighty- eight per cent of the people it infected. Apart from rabies and the human immunodeficiency virus, H.I.V., which causes aids, this was the highest rate of mortality that has been recorded for a human virus. 

Ebola was spread mainly among family members, through contact with bodily fluids and blood. Many of the people in Africa who came down with Ebola had handled Ebola-infected cadavers. It seems that one of Ebola’s paths wends to the living from the dead.

These remain precarious times.

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South Africa is seeking a $4.2bn emergency unconditional loan from the IMF. @SergiLanauIIF
World Of Finance



It'll help plug partially the possible fiscal and external financing gaps we've been highlighting. There is a fair chance that eventually more than $4bn are needed, especially for deficit financing.




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Tanzania’s economic growth is expected to drop to 2.5% in 2020 from 6.9% last year, the @WorldBank said @ReutersAfrica
Africa



“International travel bans and caution against contracting the virus have severely hurt the tourism sector, which had been one of the fastest-growing sectors in the economy,” the bank said in a statement.

It said the east African country’s economy would also be hurt by a decline in export demand, supply chain disruptions for domestic manufacturers and weak domestic consumption.


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IMF: Kenya should seek the release of the more than Sh1 trillion, in committed but undisbursed official development assistance, that donors have signed to lend Business Daily @moneyacademyKE
Kenyan Economy


IMF: Kenya should seek the release of the more than Sh1 trillion, in committed but undisbursed official development assistance, that donors have signed to lend so that the country can stop paying commitment fees that continue to raise its indebtedness — Business Daily



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Longhorn Kenya Ltd share price data
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Closing Price:           4.84

Total Shares Issued:  369940476.00

Market Capitalization: 1,790,511,904

EPS:0.67

PE: 7.224

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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