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Wednesday 10th of June 2020
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BREAKING! #NASDAQ tops 10,000 for the first time ever. @jsblokland
World Of Finance
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Since 1870, the global econ has experienced 14 global recessions. COVID-19 will be 4th deepest. Most severe since the end of World War II. @adam_tooze
World Of Finance
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Since 1870, the global econ has experienced 14 global recessions. COVID-19 will be 4th deepest. Most severe since the end of World War II. It is expected to involve per capita output contractions in an unprecedently high share of countries. @WorldBank
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An Economic Policy that starts and Ends with Brrrrrrrrrr! Fast Forward
World Of Finance
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Much debate today about the arguable disconnect between real economy & markets @Lutfeys & @Johnauthers
World Of Finance
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward
World Of Finance
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A metastatic expansion of this Protest
Simply fails to comprehend that the ‘’Slaves’’ are now in revolt.
This is a moment of Maximum Danger to the Control Machine
It is about the Haves and the Have Nots. Its about the moment of Epiphany when the Have Nots appreciate the predicament in which they have been placed
Will they have that moment of Epiphany? Well There certainly has not been a more ‘’conducive’’ moment.
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What if the economy re-opens, but people still stay home....@lisaabramowicz1
U.S. Economy
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We are in the realms of Behavourial Economics. #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
World Of Finance
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Art Is a Different Kind of Cosmic Order @nytimes @bgreene H/T @CelestinMonga
Misc.
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That’s the nature of mathematical insight. And through its terse, pristine delineation of inflexible truth, mathematics offers us the comfort of reliability and the beauty of precision. Perhaps, he suggested, the art impulse originated as a type of mating call, drawing various of our forebears together and thus steering the propagation of the species.
To fill in that account, we must focus on the many nuances of truth.
Mathematics and science seek objective truth.
No single story tells it all. Only by blending insights from each of these accounts can we gain the fullest understanding.
There are truths that stand beyond articulation, whether in the language of mathematics or that of human discourse. There are truths we can sense, truths we can feel, that would be diminished by translation from inner expression.
Art is our most refined means for accessing such truths. There is no universal summary of art, no definition that unambiguously delineates it.
Our reactions to art are uniquely our own. But it is this very flexibility, this dependence on the individual, this reliance on the subjective, that makes art essential for grasping our all-too-human place in the cosmic order.
Whereas the patterns of math and science matter because they speak to qualities of reality that exist beyond us, the patterns of art matter because they speak to qualities of reality that exist within us.
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A replica of the Chauvet Cave of southern France, which contains some of the earliest known figurative cave paintings in the world, at the Caverne du Pont-d'Arc in the French Rhône-Alpes region
Misc.
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Visitors contemplate Vincent van Gogh’s “The Starry Night" at the Museum of Modern Art in Manhattan.Credit...Jeenah Moon for The New York Times
Misc.
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Artwork by El Anatsui (Ghana) @CelestinMonga
Misc.
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Sunrise in the Tsavo. Photo by Phoebe Maria @kenyapics
Africa
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Sunrise with a herd of elephants @finchhattons Tsavo National Park
Africa
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Something's in the water at Watamu. Video by @AfricaBornLtd @kenyapics
Africa
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Reality is perhaps not at all what I imagine. Perhaps it doesn't exist, in fact. Perhaps it only exists as a longing. - Ingmar Bergman @ddoniolvalcroze
Misc.
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The Way We Live Now
Misc.
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It is hard to photograph a meteor. Prasenjeet Yadav managed to get one anyway, entirely by accident over Mettupalayam. Beautiful. Isn't it. @ParveenKaswan
Misc.
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It is hard to photograph a meteor. Even though some 25 million of them hurtle toward Earth each day, most of them are too small to track. But Prasenjeet Yadav managed to get one anyway, entirely by accident over Mettupalayam. Beautiful. Isn't it.
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It certainly feels like a decade of "semiotic arousal" when everything, it seemed, was a sign, a harbinger of some future radical disjuncture or cataclysmic upheaval.
Misc.
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Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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These are countries I’m worried about. They have not been able to bend the curve. @maxcroser
Law & Politics
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And they have a very low ratio of testing to confirmed cases, which means it is likely that the number of total cases is much higher than the number of confirmed cases.
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#COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
Market Crashes / Panic
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#FMsays White House trade adviser Peter Navarro’s lies have all been exposed in front of facts, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said @ChinaDaily
Law & Politics
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#FMsays White House trade adviser Peter Navarro’s lies have all been exposed in front of facts, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said, urging him to stop shifting blame, otherwise he will only humiliate himself and people can clearly see what a compulsive liar he is.
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Peter Navarro is accusing China of using air travelers to “seed” #Covid_19 to cities all around the world
Law & Politics
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The DarkHorse Podcast welcomes bio-technologist @ydeigin @BretWeinstein
Law & Politics
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@realDonaldTrump understood what Gain of Function was @MollyJongFast for which we should in fact be grateful
Law & Politics
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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Market Crashes / Panic
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Cremation based estimates suggest significant under- and delayed reporting of COVID-19 epidemic data in Wuhan and China @medrxivpreprint
China
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Results: For the cumulative infections and total deaths, under different assumptions of death rates (from 2.5% to 10%) and doubling time 6.4 days, the estimates projected on February 7, 2020 in Wuhan range from 305,000 to 1,272,000 for infections and from 6,811 to 7,223 for deaths - on the order of at least 10 times the official figures (13,603 and 545).
The implied starting time of the outbreak is October 2019. Under the assumption of the official 3.14% death rate and doubling time of 2.54 days (which was derived based on Chinese official data), the infection cases reached 2.2 million on February 7.
The estimates of cumulative deaths, based on both funeral urns distribution and continuous full capacity operation of cremation services up to March 23, 2020, give results around 36,000, more than 10 times of the official death toll of 2,524.
The estimates of incidence and deaths are higher by a magnitude of at least 10 times the official figures
This would put the current operating rate at about six times normal. Normal deaths per day can be estimated as 136 based on an annual mortality rate of 0.00551 in a population of approximately 9.5million (Wuhan government data).
With the regular procedure, the additional 20 hours of daily operation imply additional deaths of 5 (20/4) x 136 = 680 per day above normal, if the services are utilized with full capacity.
However, it was estimated that the maximal capacity of cremation could be up to 2,100 bodies per day (see appendix 1).
This estimate was supported by media reports of support of additional crematory staff from other cities and provinces being brought into Wuhan.
Since February 19, 40 mobile crematory stations were also sent to Wuhan for the increasing need of cremation capacity.
The median time of the incubation period for COVID-19 is 4.5 days from exposure to symptom onset. The median time from the symptom onset to death is 14 days.
Assuming it takes half a day from death to cremation, this implies that most of the deaths which happened on and before February 11, 2020 were not impacted by any countermeasures in effect.
With no countermeasure in effect, we assumed doubling time was also 2.54 days before January 20 in this scenario
143 The projections of N(t) for Wuhan using doubling time 2.54 days approach half million on 44th day, that the exponential growth model is unreliable.
From the 45th day, we take into account the declining number of susceptible individuals, and the model was modified (as in the SIR simulation model) so that the relationship 𝑛(𝑡) = 𝑒𝑛(𝑡 − 1) becomes 𝑛(𝑡) = 𝑒 1 − () 𝑛(𝑡 − 1) where P is the population size of Wuhan after lock down.
RESULTS
Wuhan lockdown started on January 23, 2020. This study chose February 7 (two weeks after the announcement of 24-hour-operation of cremation services), and February 12 (20 days after lockdown) as the projected evaluation days. Retrospectively, February 12 was the day when party leadership changes were undertaken in Wuhan and Hubei Province.
On April 17, Wuhan City announced an adjustment of its death toll by additional 1,290, and of confirmed diagnosis by 325 cases, making a total of confirmed diagnosis of 50,333 cases, 173 deaths of 3,869 cases, and crude case fatality rate of 7.69%.
under assumption of the crude fatality rates of 2.5%, 5%, and 10%, cumulative infections in Wuhan are 1,272,400, 650,900 and 305,000 respectively. Cumulative deaths are 6,946, 7,223 and 6,811 respectively. The implied start dates for the outbreak are October 4, 2019, October 11, 2019 and October 17, 2019, respectively.
Estimates based of a 2.54 day doubling rate are also presented with estimated confidence intervals in Table 3. Since this doubling time was derived using Chinese official data, we applied the official 3.14% fatality rate in the calculation. The total cases are projected to be 2.23 million with 95% confidence interval (2.12 million, 2.38 million) on February 7, 2020.
If we use the Wuhan/China ratio based on China’s official data listed in Table 1 (confirmed cases 39.4%), we can extrapolate estimates for China, with cumulative infections potentially reaching 5.67 million on February 7, 2020.
While people claimed that the lockdown in Wuhan combined with the national emergency response have averted 96% of the cases by February 19, 2020,27 it should be considered that in the initial period after Wuhan lock down, the effectiveness of countermeasures taken there could be impacted by many factors, including the lack of public awareness, the cross infection at hospitals, the limitation of the medical capacity, the inadequacy of the quarantine facility and space, and the family cluster chain-infections.. However, this is beyond the scope of this manuscript.
Based on data from the seven of eight Wuhan crematories, our conservative estimates of cumulative infections on February 7 are more than 10 times than those of the official data.
Chinese media raised concerns about infections and deaths beyond the official statistics; for example, when the director of a fever clinic complained that he could admit only five out of 80 potentially infected patients, which suggested a potential 16-fold difference between possible infected patients and confirmed diagnoses in Wuhan.
4 The report mentioned the limited nucleic acid-based testing, which was available only after the sequencing data was announced on January 11, 2020.
This information also pointed to the limited and exhausted medical facility capacity in Wuhan in late January and early February 2020
Some researchers have inferred the percentage of undocumented infections, concluding that approximately 86% of all infections were apparently undocumented and that these were the source of infection for 79% of documented cases.30 Scissors, examining out-migrants, has also pointed out that China’s COVID-19 figures are arithmetically impossible
Tsang et. al. estimated that by Feb 20, 2020, there would have been 232,000 (95% CrI (161,000-359,000)) confirmed cases in China as opposed to only 55,508 reported cases.32 These studies raise similar concerns about the underreporting of Chinese COVID-19 cases.
Potential COVID-19 related death counts from urn distribution for Wuhan could be 35,708 for seven funeral houses (Table 3). This is consistent with our linear estimate of 36,720, based on the cremation service operation. Both estimates are more than ten times of the official death toll (2,524 on March 23).
Additionally, neither took into account those potentially processed in the 40 mobile crematories which were brought to Wuhan after February 19, 2020 for the newly constructed hospitals (Huoshen Shan and Leishen Shan) and “Fangchang” hospitals.16,17
The mobile crematory stations can each process up to five tons of “medical waste” including “animal dead bodies” per day. Thus, the calculations here could be significant under-estimates.
As reported by Huang C et al., symptom onset of the first confirmed case was December 1, 2019.34 Under the assumption of 6.4 doubling time, the start dates implied by this study range from October 4, 2019 to October 17, 2019. The estimated “implied start dates” are consistent with other reports where Kristian Andersen suggested a possible “start date” of October 1, 2019 based viral genome analysis.35 Under the assumption of 2.54 doubling time, the implied start date is December 14, 2019. However, in this scenario the infection cases were projected to total 2.23 million by February 7, 2020. If the doubling time 2.54 is close to the truth, then China’s official data under reported by millions. If the doubling time 6.4 is close to the truth, there was significant under- and delayed reporting of the COVID-19 epidemic information by China in late January and early February, the critical time for the world to respond and prepare for the pandemic. Given the serious implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, further investigations into this period in China needs to be carried out.
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‟Who Ya Gonna Believe, Me or Your Own Eyes‟ #COVID19
Market Crashes / Panic
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The representative samples help establish that the rate of having a #COVID19 infection but not having symptoms is about 40-45% @EricTopol
Market Crashes / Panic
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But it's also notable that "silent" infections may not be so silent after all @EricTopol
Market Crashes / Panic
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This 40-45% rate is striking for being so high and it's hard to come up with another pathogen with the spectrum: from no symptoms to being lethal.
But it's also notable that "silent" infections may not be so silent after all
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They fancied themselves free wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences
Market Crashes / Panic
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There are now 2 series of people who were asymptomatic but had lung CT scans @EricTopol
Market Crashes / Panic
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There is something Karmic in this #COVID19 it lurks everywhere and in silence
Market Crashes / Panic
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The viral load of asymptomatic compared with symptomatic has consistently been shown to be similar in multiple studies @@EricTopol
Market Crashes / Panic
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But viral load is not the same as transmissibility, which hasn't been adequately studied. Ideally with genomics of the virus for precision. The cohorts we reviewed certainly support spread and perhaps > 14 days (e.g. USS aircraft). @EricTopol
Market Crashes / Panic
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A v large, random sample to study this is needed
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𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐐𝐮𝐢𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐘𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐄𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲 𝐑𝐨𝐨𝐦𝐬: When you walk into the emergency room now, there is silence. @Craig_A_Spencer
Market Crashes / Panic
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It’s not just fewer patients. Fewer monitors. Fewer dying. There is an actual emptiness...
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It’s only when the tidal wave recedes that we can get close enough to assess the damage. @Craig_A_Spencer
Market Crashes / Panic
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In the past few weeks, many colleagues around the city have tested positive for antibodies to the novel coronavirus.
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You’re almost never scared. You treated war wounded during civil conflict in East Africa. You treated Ebola in West Africa, where most of your patients died. @Craig_A_Spencer
East Africa
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But now, seeing your colleague desperately hungry for air, you panic inside. He’s one of us.
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EXPECT MORE BRRR! 08-JUN-2020 :: Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom.
Market Crashes / Panic
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Brrr money Inc @federalreserve H/T @MONETARY_MAYHEM
World Of Finance
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08-JUN-2020 :: Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom.
Market Crashes / Panic
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“Anybody can be decisive during a panic; it takes a strong man to act during a boom.” ― V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River
“The businessman bought at ten and was happy to get out at twelve; the mathematician saw his ten rise to eighteen, but didn’t sell because he wanted to double his ten to twenty.”
For some reason, I keep returning to VS Naipaul. I have always been an avid Reader and Naipaul notwithstanding what some Folks considered a vicious cruel streak [One of my Aunties who was an avowed Socialist was criticized for buying her underwear at Marks and Spencer’s in one of his books and to this day I don’t understand why a Socialist should not be permitted to wear proper underwear], I have always found him to be a beautiful and lyrical Writer who spoke to my own lived experience.
Who has not thought
“Look, boys, it ever strike you that the world not real at all? It ever strike you that we have the only mind in the world and you just thinking up everything else? Like me here, having the only mind in the world, and thinking up you people here, thinking up the war and all the houses and the ships and them in the harbour. That ever cross your mind?”
― V.S. Naipaul, Miguel Street
However, I started with A Bend in the River and not because Ebola was on my mind which it was because This is surely The Year of the Virus and Ebola [in case you had forgotten has been resurfacing], nor because the bend in the river is set in the Congo.
The River Kinshasa
But because in that Book, Salim describes the BOOM!
And watching the Markets unfold, the ‘’Kisingani’’ Boom that Salim experienced came to my mind.
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Bubbly all around. Highest % of members above 70 RSI since Volmageddon. Highest number of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average in 2 decades. Strongest 50- day rally in history. Tweeted @TaviCosta
World Of Finance
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The Nasdaq closed at a record
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V shape recovery. No one anticipated it. Nasdaq hits all time high. @MadhusudanSara5
World Of Finance
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Widening divergence between profits and stock prices via @ISABELNET_SA @SoberLook @GregDaco
Of course President Trump is doing high fives!
The Optics however...
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Brutal @GeorgeTakei
World Of Finance
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Of course The Federal Reserve has been pumping its balance Sheet $7.2 Trillion last
The Fed has taken an extraordinary amount of actions in response to the #COVID19 shock. Their response has been far superior to the #GFC. Since March 9, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet in a staggering 70%. @econchart
But who wants to be a Killjoy because Killjoys get carried out in the BOOM? Just ask Tiger Management’s Julian Robertson.
The Precipitate Trigger for the Surge Friday was of course the US Jobs report.
Employers added 2.5 million workers to their payrolls in May, trouncing forecasts for a 7.5 million decline. The jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to 13.3% from 14.7% as states began re-opening their economies.
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A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is. Here’s what happened. @washingtonpost
U.S. Economy
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When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.
The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May.
The BLS admitted that some people who should have been classified as “temporarily unemployed” during the shutdown were instead misclassified as employed but “absent” from work for “other reasons.”
Just weeks after the stock market crashed in 1929, President Herbert Hoover assured the country
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Ahamed writes in Lords of Finance
World Of Finance
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ive months later, in March 1930, Hoover said the worst would be over “during the next 60 days.”
When that period ended, he said, “We have passed the worst.”
Eventually, Ahamed writes, “when the facts refused to obey Hoover’s forecasts, he started to make them up.”
Government agencies were pressed to issue false data. Officials resigned rather than do so, including the chief of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
And we all know how that turned out: The Great Depression.
Is this going to rain on President Trump’s Parade? Probably not
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“Fake News” said someone we know and millions of People believed him and the @NYSE and @Nasdaq surged to the (pink) moon
U.S. Economy
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@RealdonaldTrump H/T @DanScavino
Law & Politics
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"We have gross oscillation here"
World Of Finance
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An Oscillation within Uyipa
World Of Finance
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Global oil demand is still expected to contract by around 9 mb/d for the whole of 2020 according to the Opec secretariat-
OPEC+ deal based on outcome today. @JRJ_ALHAJRI
Crude Oil Chart @TamirTiko2110 [I am looking to SELL]
Precious Metals YTD
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Las Vegas is officially back. @ArashMarkazi
U.S. Economy
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The Markets believe it’s a V [but is it?]
EXPECT MORE BRRR!
COVID19
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10-MAY-2020 :: We are trending in the 80,000-100,000 #COVID cases a day now.
Market Crashes / Panic
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[and Now] at a rate of more than 100,000 a day over a seven-day average @CNN
Market Crashes / Panic
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Newly reported cases reached a high of 130,400 on June 3.
In the last two weeks, the cumulative number of confirmed #COVID19 cases has grown by: • 88% in South America • 70% in Africa • 42% in Asia • 21% in North America • 13% in Europe • 2% in Oceania @edouad
The number of daily new cases is rising continuously in many large countries.
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#COVID19 @MaxCRoser
Market Crashes / Panic
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Markets driven by euphoria never end well. Warren Buffett is not an idiot. Fundamentals matter. @TaviCosta
World Of Finance
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Behind China’s Twitter Campaign, a Murky Supporting Chorus
China
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Swarms of accounts are amplifying Beijing’s brash new messaging as the country tries to shape the global narrative about the coronavirus and much else.
阅读简体中文版閱讀繁體中文版
As the Trump administration lashes out at China over a range of grievances, Beijing’s top diplomats and representatives are using the president’s favorite online megaphone — Twitter — to slap back with a pugnaciousness that is best described as Trumpian.
Behind China’s combative new messengers, a murky hallelujah chorus of sympathetic accounts has emerged to repost them and cheer them on.
Many are new to the platform. Some do little else but amplify the Beijing line.
One in six tweeted with extremely high frequency despite having few followers, as if they were being used as loudspeakers, not as sharing platforms
Nearly one in seven tweeted almost nothing of their own, instead filling their feeds with reposts of the official Chinese accounts and others.
In all, one third of the accounts had been created in the last three months, as the war of words with the Trump administration heated up. One in seven had zero followers.
The United States and China are battling to dominate the global narrative.
They now rarely make telltale mistakes such as using social media accounts that were all created on the same day, follow one another and post the same material.
Campaigns are often uncovered one small piece at a time. Twitter has declared operations to be state-backed after identifying as few as six accounts.
Much is unknown about China’s covert influence activities in particular. Twitter last year suspended more than 200,000 accounts that it called a Chinese state-backed operation aimed at discrediting Hong Kong’s protesters, though it said little about how it came to that conclusion.
Still, The Times’s findings add to other recent evidence suggesting that Twitter is being manipulated to amplify pro-Beijing messages.
Next Dim, a data firm in Israel, discovered two mundane-looking tweets praising China’s coronavirus response that were liked and reposted hundreds of thousands of times in March, possibly with the help of strategically placed influencer accounts.
The U.S. State Department found inauthentic-seeming accounts that in April cited a Cambridge University study to raise doubts that the coronavirus originated in China.
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An extraordinary exercise in Narrative Framing and linguistic control, accompanied by a chorus of Party Hacks chirruping Hosannas
Law & Politics
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05-DEC-2016:: “We have gross oscillation here.”
World Of Finance
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05-DEC-2016:: The first thing is plausible deniability The second thing is non-linearity, you have to learn how to navigate a linear system in a non-linear way.
World Of Finance
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The Master Algorithm by Pedro Domingos. Xi is building an Algorithmic Society.
World Of Finance
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Currency Markets At A Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1351
Dollar Index 96.226
Japan Yen 107.34
Swiss Franc 0.9490
Pound 1.2770
Aussie 0.6978
India Rupee 75.52
South Korea Won 1191.58
Brazil Real 4.900
Egypt Pound 16.19
South Africa Rand 16.637
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Dollar Index @mosehesbon 96.226
World Currencies
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Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.1352
World Currencies
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Gold @JReade_WGC 1718
Commodities
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Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 38.24
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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10-MAY-2020 :: ―Brazil is the global epicenter of the coronavirus.
Emerging Markets
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In Brazil we have a toxic mix of a „‟Voodoo‟‟ President @jairbolsonaro and a runaway #COVID19
Brazilians aren‘t infected by anything, even when they fall into a sewer
“It‟s tragic surrealism ... I can‟t stop thinking about Gabriel García Márquez when I think about the situation Manaus is facing.” Guardian
Viruses are in essence non linear exponential and multiplicative and COVID19 has „‟escape velocity‟‟ in Brazil.
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Brazil now has the highest rate of new COVID-19 deaths in the world, as measured by the 7-day rolling average. Chart via @FT @jburnmurdoch @ReutersJamie
Emerging Markets
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10-MAY-2020 :: ― We are witnessing a Spill Over into EM and Frontier Geographies
Emerging Markets
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URGENT: Le Gouvernement de la République du Burundi annonce avec une très grande tristesse le décès inopiné de Son Excellence Pierre Nkurunziza, Président de la République du Burundi @BurundiGov
Law & Politics
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URGENT: Le Gouvernement de la République du Burundi annonce avec une très grande tristesse le décès inopiné de Son Excellence Pierre Nkurunziza, Président de la République du Burundi, survenu à l’Hôpital du Cinquantenaire de Karusi suite à un arrêt cardiaque ce 8 juin 2020.
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There is something Karmic in this #COVID19
Africa
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It lurks everywhere and in silence
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The second name of Covid-19 is 'heart attack', Rest in peace President Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi @Collobrown25
Africa
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ONLY 2 countries in the WORLD have declared to be completely free of the COVID 19 virus... New Zealand and Tanzania...@ahmednasirlaw
Africa
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@MagufuliJP is not @jacindaardern but @jairbolsonaro
Law & Politics
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25-MAR-2019 :: :: If You want to measure a Soft Power Leapfrog, Keep an Eye on this remarkably sophisticated epitome of c21st Girl Power @jacindaardern
Law & Politics
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2018 Exports of some African countries: Ghana=$20.5b Uganda=$4.16b Tanzania=$5.78b Kenya=$6.63b Zambia=$11.4b Senegal=$3.89 Zimbabwe=$4.46b & Ethiopia=$2.41b @marabyssi
Africa
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Agricultural exports from the Continent is worth between $30 billion and $45 billions annually. @kasiva_mutisya
Africa
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A @Reuters clip from the Dec. 1967 summit at the Apolo Hotel in Kampala. Haile Selassie, Obote, Kenyatta, Nyerere, Kayibanda & Kaunda; Tom Mboya chatting w/ William & Rhoda Kalema; a dapper Charles Njonjo; Kenya VP Moi. @Unseen_Archive
Africa
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a @Reuters clip from the Dec. 1967 summit at the Apolo Hotel in Kampala. Amazing to see these people in the same room: Haile Selassie, Obote, Kenyatta, Nyerere, Kayibanda & Kaunda; Tom Mboya chatting w/ William & Rhoda Kalema; a dapper Charles Njonjo; Kenya VP Moi. 1/3
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Africa may learn from China’s political path to revitalize its own development plans @globaltimesnews @Kapchanga
Africa
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A powerful democratization wave swept across Africa from the late 1980s to early 1990s, resulting in the birth of very much sought-after multiparty politics on the continent.
Effectively, it brought an end to single-party frameworks, blamed for weak governance and slow paces in development that had been in force since independence of many countries.
Pushed principally by the West, the introduction of multiparty politics promised Africans a new world order of wealth creation, universal and affordable healthcare, food security, better education, and improved infrastructure.
Approaching a third decade now since this new political model was welcomed with ululation, the ambitious pledges have been revised, postponed and at times, called off, as most African countries grapple with a proliferation of political parties that lack robust missions, issues, ideologies, and policies.
Moreover, the outfits remain deficient in structures, programs as well as internal management practices.
This has in turn hurt democratic consolidation, and, in turn, impeded desired economic growth. Such are the challenges that have left Africa fixated to external assistance.
As times goes by, the situation has turned out not to be any better. Unlike other regions, Africa currently seems to be leaning toward the formation of political parties that are based on their ethnic backgrounds to attain electoral majority.
Strikingly, in circumstances where the requisite threshold has not been attained, coalitions have been formed.
So far, this rare phenomenon has been witnessed in Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius, and South Africa.
However, it remains to be seen whether the building of coalitions as governing model can bear out long-term development prospects in Africa.
Be that as it may, what is emerging is that multiparty politics cannot guarantee the development in Africa.
Instead, it has become an instrument that marginalizes the poor and minorities, breeding ethnic, sometimes racial, and religious divisions. In fact, most political parties are formed to win elections and make short-term gains.
Given the competitive nature of political systems, elections have become the trigger of division, the destruction of lives and properties, and violence in Africa.
The same way the world is keenly following the Chinese economic model that is underpinned by its solid political system, perhaps it is time, too, that Africa learns from China's political path to revitalize its own development plans.
With a prioritization of science as the source of pragmatic knowledge, China's policy of reform and opening-up adopted in 1978 has not only ushered in remarkable transformation but has also led to poverty alleviation, boosted ex-ports and enhanced foreign investment.
Simplistic as it may sound, China's spectacular socioeconomic reforms have been a product of resilience and corresponding political policies and commitment.
In fact, this political dedication in the country's welfare was evident on Friday when Premier Li Keqiang, while opening third session of the 13th National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, stated the impressive work the Chinese central government has done in countering COVID-19 under the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC).
As stated in the past by President Paul Kagame of Rwanda - a country that has guarded its political stability since 1994 and sustained its economic growth rates over the last decade - the West should not fix its political models on Africa. Instead, the continent should have its own models that are informed by its development needs.
There is no doubt that the populist multiparty format has failed in the continent.
It has not yielded the much-desired outcomes. It is high time that leaders of Africa revisited their political constructions, and formulate one that is underpinned by ideologies and development-oriented policies, like the CPC does.
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7 OCT 19 :: Xi’s model is one of technocratic authoritarianism and a recent addition to his book shelf include The Master Algorithm by Pedro Domingos. Xi is building an Algorithmic Society.
China
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The World in the 21st century exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight.
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19-APR-2020 :: China Africa Win Win
China
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And the entire China Africa relationship has been an extraordinary exercise in Narrative Framing and linguistic control, accompanied by a chorus of Party Hacks chirruping Hosannas at every turn amplifying largely meaningless feel good Phrases artfully placed in the mouths of our Politicians and our Newspapers. It is remarkable.
September has just set in Beijing, bringing with it refreshing breeze and picturesque autumn scenery.
"The ocean is vast because it rejects no rivers."
Together, we could make China and Africa beautiful places for people to live in harmony with nature.
4/12 Curiosamente, esse período marcou uma das piores décadas para esse mercado na história. É incontestável a contradição entre esses números, presumivelmente mais apurados, e os números “criados” pelo próprio governo comunista Chinês.
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The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
Africa
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Kano in Nigeria for example
Western Cape growing at an alarming rate @sugan250388
Someone with close knowledge of the medical profession said it was almost impossible to secure a hospital bed in several cities.
The Aga Khan hospital in Dar es Salaam had a well-equipped ward for 80 coronavirus patients, but several were dying each night, he said.
The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?
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At least half of mystery deaths in Nigeria's Kano due to COVID-19 - minister @ReutersAfrica
Africa
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ABUJA (Reuters) - As many as 60% of the “mysterious” deaths in Nigeria’s northern Kano state were likely due to the new coronavirus, the government’s health minister said on Monday.
Nigeria’s task force on COVID-19 sent a team to the northern economic hub in late April to investigate and conduct “verbal autopsies” after local newspaper the Daily Trust reported a spike in deaths to around 150 people in Kano city.
Government Minister of Health Osagie Ehanire said the investigation found a total of 979 deaths were recorded in eight municipal local government areas in Kano state at a rate of 43 deaths per day, compared with the typical death rate of roughly 11 deaths per day.
“With circumstantial evidence as all to go by, investigation suggests that between 50-60% of the deaths may have been triggered by or due to COVID-19, in the face of pre-existing ailments,” Ehanire said.
He said the peak in deaths occurred in the second week of April, and that by the beginning of May, the death rate had gone back down to the normal rate.
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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa
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We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.
what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!
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The first known emergence of Ebola Zaire—the hottest subtype of Ebola virus— happened in September, 1976
Africa
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The first known emergence of Ebola Zaire—the hottest subtype of Ebola virus— happened in September, 1976, when the virus erupted simultaneously in fifty-five villages near the Ebola River.
Ebola Zaire is a slate-wiper in humans. It killed eighty- eight per cent of the people it infected. Apart from rabies and the human immunodeficiency virus, H.I.V., which causes aids, this was the highest rate of mortality that has been recorded for a human virus.
Ebola was spread mainly among family members, through contact with bodily fluids and blood. Many of the people in Africa who came down with Ebola had handled Ebola-infected cadavers. It seems that one of Ebola’s paths wends to the living from the dead.
These remain precarious times.
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enetic sequencing from new #Ebola cases Investigations are ongoing to understand source, but likely a new introduction from an animal reservoir. @DrTedros
Africa
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Genetic sequencing from new #Ebola cases in Équateur #DRC shows that the outbreak is not linked to North Kivu or to the 2018 Équateur outbreak. Investigations are ongoing to understand source, but likely a new introduction from an animal reservoir.
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
Africa
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Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 16.60
World Currencies
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 16.19
Africa
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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About the politics of monuments in Uganda: Below: @Reuters clip of the removal of Milton Obote's bust from the gate at Parliament, April 1971 @Unseen_Archive
East Africa
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Idi Amin repurposed a number of colonial-era statues. Below: @Reuters clip of the removal of Milton Obote's bust from the gate at Parliament, April 1971. The 'Apolo Hotel' was that same month renamed 'Kampala International'. 1/3
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The statue of Jomo Kenyatta--outside KICC in Nairobi--was unveiled during the 10th anniversary of Kenya's independence, Dec. 1973 @Unseen_Archive
Africa
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That is a wild ride there with NMG. @ekmokaya
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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@NationMediaGrp share price data
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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Closing Price: 16.60
Total Shares Issued: 188542286.00
Market Capitalization: 3,129,801,948
EPS: 4.5
PE: 3.689
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@NationMediaGrp H1 Earnings @jpmuga
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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For years, the traditional media in Africa has seen its power wane in the face of technological changes and shrinking advertising. @cnbcafrica
Africa
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Schumpeter level moment in this industry "The markets are never wrong" said @PaulKagame
Africa
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Kenya: Insurance group UAP Holdings is renegotiating the repayment of Sh10.1 billion worth of loans to several lenders after failing to settle some of the debt on the agreed dates. — Business Daily @moneyacademyKE
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
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Interestingly though Kenyan govt bond yields have not moved by much. @ekmokaya
Kenyan Bills & Bonds - Short Term
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23-DEC-2019 :: Kenyan lenders are the second most exposed to the government with almost 300 per cent of their equity lent out to the State.
Africa
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However, Egyptian banks are even more exposed on lending Cairo 603 per cent of their equity. What this tells me is that an important Source of Buy Side Demand for GOK Shilling Paper is now ''limit Long'' If You are sitting on the Credit Committee of a Kenyan Bank and exercising some degree of oversight, I would argue that then you would be demanding a Hard Cap.
Therefore, given the fact that GOK issuance is not going to slow down but will probably accelerate, I would be keeping a close eye on the Curve.
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 106.50
World Currencies
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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We sighted 80 elephants in 15 minutes. The Northern Rangelands Trust (NRT) Nasolot is home to one of the world's biggest black elephant species. @Johnlonyangapuo
Tourism, Travel & Transport
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The port city of Mombasa is the gateway to East Africa. @kenyangeography
Africa
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
N.S.E General
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