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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 11th of June 2020
 







MILKY WAY'S GIANT GAS-FILLED FERMI BUBBLES IMAGED IN VISIBLE LIGHT FOR THE FIRST TIME H/T @GK_Austin
Misc.


Since we have a yellow sun, there are colors we can't see above yellow in the color spectrum, (UV light etc.) We use false colors to interpret wavelengths above yellow. This is what the center of the Milky Way looks like. 


The Fermi bubbles, which were first spotted in 2010, spew out light in the form of a highly-energetic radiation called gamma rays. 

The towering structures – each of which is around 25,000 light-years tall – are considered to be relics of an ancient outburst of gas from the galaxy’s center. 

While these structures have captured the imagination and attention of many scientists and astrophysicists, the source of these bubbles is still unknown.

Scientists have theorized that the outflow could have been the result of the black hole at the center of the galaxy, or emissions caused by high-energy e


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23-DEC-2019 :: In Memoriam, [Ring out, wild bells] [Maybe we should not have been so keen to ring those bells]
Misc.



The End of the Year is upon us, and it is that time to Ring out, wild bells

The year is dying in the night;

Ring out, wild bells, and let him die. Ring out the old, ring in the new, Ring, happy bells, across the snow: The year is going, let him go;




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@GlobPeaceIndex GLOBAL PEACE INDEX 2020
Law & Politics


The results this year show that the level of global peacefulness deteriorated, with the average country score falling by 0.34 per cent. 

This is the ninth deterioration in peacefulness in the last twelve years

The 2020 GPI reveals a world in which the conflicts and crises that emerged in the past decade have begun to abate, only to be replaced with a new wave of tension and uncertainty as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Iceland remains the most peaceful country in the world, a position it has held since 2008. It is joined at the top of the index by New Zealand, Austria, Portugal, and Denmark.

Afghanistan is the least peaceful country in the world for the second year in a row, followed by Syria, Iraq, South Sudan and Yemen. 

It finds that there has been a sharp increase in civil unrest events since 2011, with over 96 countries experiencing at least one violent demonstration in 2019. 

From 2011 to 2019, the number of riots rose by 282 per cent and general strikes rose by 821 per cent.

Civil unrest in sub-Saharan Africa rose by more than 800 per cent over the period, from 32 riots and protests in 2011 to 292 in 2018.

Europe remains the most peaceful region in the world, although it recorded a slight deterioration in peacefulness. 


The crisis and the social isolation response are expected to send most countries into recession in 2020. 

The travel and tourism industries are likely to incur severe contractions.

Other industries affected are hospitality, retail trade, mineral resources, education, recreation, energy and shipping.


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2019: YEAR OF THE PROTEST COVID-19: UNREST CONTINUES IN 2020 @GlobPeaceIndex
Law & Politics


2019 was characterised by increases in protests across the world. France, Chile, Mexico, Hong Kong, and elsewhere had large protests, often resulting in violence. 

Most civil unrest around the world takes the form of nonviolent protests, but at least 58 per cent of GPI countries experienced violent protests in 2019.

Civil unrest declined nearly 90 per cent from 11 March to 11 April 2020.

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21-OCT-2019 :: "The New Economy of Anger".
World Of Finance



People have been pushed to the edge and are taking to the streets.

Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics, “The revolutio- nary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’’



The Phenomenon is spreading like wildfire in large part because of the tinder dry conditions underfoot. Prolonged stand-offs eviscerate economies, reducing opportunities and accelerate the negative feed- back loop.

Antonio Gramsci wrote, “The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum, a great variety of morbid symptoms appear. now is the time of monsters.”

This level of unhappiness is unprecedented in a time of ‘’peace’’ and in a time when our august financial institutions keep touting about how it has never been so good for the Human Race.

Dr. Célestin Monga in a recent pie- ce characterised the situation thus The Great Discordance ‘’the planet is filled with rage and anger’’


Ryszard Kapucinski also said: “If the crowd disperses, goes home, does not reassemble, we say the revolution is over.” It is not over. More and more peo- ple are gathering in the Streets.

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COVID19 10-MAY-2020 :: We are trending in the 80,000-100,000 #COVID cases a day now. [and Now] at a rate of more than 100,000 a day over a seven-day average @CNN Newly reported cases reached a high of 130,400 on June 3.
Market Crashes / Panic


In the last two weeks, the cumulative number of confirmed #COVID19 cases has grown by: • 88% in South America • 70% in Africa • 42% in Asia • 21% in North America • 13% in Europe • 2% in Oceania @edouad


The number of daily new cases is rising continuously in many large countries.


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EU Points Finger at China, Russia for Covid-19 Disinformation @business
China


The two nations are among “foreign actors” that sought to “undermine democratic debate” and enhance their own image through “targeted influence operations and disinformation campaigns around Covid-19 in the EU,” the European Union’s executive authority said in the report, published on Wednesday.

“It would be too dangerous not to act,” commission Vice President Vera Jourova said in a briefing ahead of the report’s release. 

“Given the novelty of the virus, gaps in knowledge have proven to be an ideal breeding ground for false or misleading narratives to spread,” the EU added.

The EU’s findings on China and Russia are based on a separate study by the commission’s foreign and diplomatic wing, which said it had evidence of a “coordinated push” by official Chinese sources to deflect blame for the coronavirus pandemic and promote its response to the virus. 

EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell, who heads the service, has worked with Jourova over the last few weeks on the latest plans.

State sponsored foreign propaganda preys on people’s “fears and doubts,” said Jourova.

A “geopolitically strong EU can only materialize if we are assertive. But we also need to get our own house in order and not to allow others to occupy this space,” she said.

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08-JUN-2020 :: Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom.
World Of Finance


“Anybody can be decisive during a panic; it takes a strong man to act during a boom.” ― V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River

“The businessman bought at ten and was happy to get out at twelve; the mathematician saw his ten rise to eighteen, but didn’t sell because he wanted to double his ten to twenty.”

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Just weeks after the stock market crashed in 1929, President Herbert Hoover assured the country that things were already “back to normal,” Liaquat Ahamed writes in Lords of Finance
World Of Finance



Five months later, in March 1930, Hoover said the worst would be over “during the next 60 days.”


When that period ended, he said, “We have passed the worst.”

Eventually, Ahamed writes, “when the facts refused to obey Hoover’s forecasts, he started to make them up.”

Government agencies were pressed to issue false data. Officials resigned rather than do so, including the chief of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And we all know how that turned out: The Great Depression.


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Powell 2012. P. 191/2. QE: "It will never be enough for markets. Benefits will be overestimated. We are encouraging risk taking THAT SHOULD GIVE US PAUSE'' @NorthmanTrader
World Of Finance

Powell 2012. P. 191/2. QE: "It will never be enough for markets. Benefits will be overestimated. We are encouraging risk taking THAT SHOULD GIVE US PAUSE. Investors understand we will be there to prevent serious losses. We're blowing a fixed income bubble"

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1364

Dollar Index 96.213

Japan Yen 106.93

Swiss Franc 0.9424

Pound 1.2681

Aussie 0.6922

India Rupee 75.8475

South Korea Won 1197.125

Brazil Real 4.9738

Egypt Pound 16.1953

South Africa Rand 16.646

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International Tourism @GlobPeaceIndex GLOBAL PEACE INDEX 2020
Tourism, Travel & Transport


The level of international tourism has collapsed in the first half of 2020. The cessation of tourism will have a negative impact on the global economy in 2020. The OECD estimates that tourism makes up 4.4 per cent of member countries’ GDP and 21.5 per cent of their service exports, as shown in Table 4.3.

Hypothetically, if tourism were to stop completely for four months in 2020, this disruption would detract 1.5 percentage points from annual GDP growth and 7.2 percentage points from service export growth. Adding these two negative contributions (and accounting for service exports comprising 6.8 per cent of OECD GDP), the shutting down of tourism activity would detract two percentage points from annual GDP growth in the OECD. This means that if OECD GDP were to grow in 2020 by 2.3 per cent, as it did in 2018, the collapse of tourism alone could cut this number down to 0.3 per cent. This suggests that the disruption of the tourism industry alone could wipe out all the potential for economic growth in the OECD for 2020.

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10-MAY-2020 :: ―Brazil is the global epicenter of the coronavirus.
Emerging Markets


In Brazil we have a toxic mix of a „‟Voodoo‟‟ President @jairbolsonaro and a runaway #COVID19

Brazilians aren‘t infected by anything, even when they fall into a sewer

“It‟s tragic surrealism ... I can‟t stop thinking about Gabriel García Márquez when I think about the situation Manaus is facing.” Guardian

Viruses are in essence non linear exponential and multiplicative and COVID19 has „‟escape velocity‟‟ in Brazil.

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Sub-Saharan Africa @GlobPeaceIndex GLOBAL PEACE INDEX 2020
Law & Politics


Despite retaining its place as the least peaceful country in sub-Saharan Africa, South Sudan made progress toward building the political foundations for peace at the end of the GPI measurement year. 

In March 2020, the country’s feuding leaders, Riek Machar and Salva Kiir, reached a political settlement and formed government, putting an end to more than six years of armed conflict.

The region’s three largest improvers in peacefulness in the last year were South Africa, Cote d’Ivoire and Equatorial Guinea, all of which recorded improvements of more than six per cent. 

Both South Africa and Cote d’Ivoire improved across all three GPI domains, while Equatorial Guinea substantially improved on the Militarisation domain.

Benin experienced the biggest deterioration of any country in the world, falling 34 places in the ranking to 106th on the 2020 GPI

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Sub-Saharan Africa Civil unrest in sub-Saharan Africa rose by more than 800 per cent, from 32 riots and protests in 2011 to 292 in 2018. @GlobPeaceIndex GLOBAL PEACE INDEX 2020
Law & Politics


The increase was mostly driven by events occurring after 2015. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest proportion of violent demonstrations, with riots making up 42.6 per cent of total events.

Nigeria accounted for the largest number of demonstrations and the largest increase. 

In 2018 the number of demonstrations rose from six to 79 in a single year. 

Perhaps the most prominent issue was the imprisonment of Sheikh Ibrahim El-Zakzaky, leader of the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN).

Supporters of the IMN protested repeatedly throughout the year to call for Zakzaky’s release, who had been imprisoned since 2015.

In South Africa, there was an 86 per cent increase in civil unrest from 2011 to 2018, with most of the increase occurring in 2017 and 2018. 

University students began protesting following proposed tuition increases in late 2015. 

These demonstrations led to the temporary closure of the country’s top universities.

Ethiopia experienced a similar trend, as emergency restrictions to contain protests in 2015 expired in late 2017 and citizens returned to the streets. 

The number of riots and demonstrations rose 500 per cent from 2015 to 2018. 

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Africa’s Debt Will Be the Next Explosion @business @BW
World Of Finance

 


What’s harder to push back, though, is the billions of dollars in loans that funded construction. While the government hasn’t revealed the financing details, local media estimate that Angola owes Chinese creditors from $3 billion to $9 billion for the unfinished facility.

The Luanda airport is just one of hundreds of megaprojects that have supercharged African economies over the past decade. 

Angola alone has built Kilamba, a satellite city outside the capital that’s home to 80,000 people, two other airports, a state-of-the-art library that was abandoned halfway through construction, and four soccer stadiums seating as many as 50,000 spectators. 

Across the continent, governments have spent at least $77 billion annually since 2013, erecting everything from critical infrastructure such as bridges and hospitals to sumptuous presidential villas and soaring monuments celebrating national heroes.

The building binge has been fueled by at least $600 billion in loans, leaving African governments struggling with record debt. 

The obligations were manageable—barely—when countries in the region were expanding by as much as 10% annually. 

But with the coronavirus pandemic shutting down trade and hammering commodity prices, the debt bill threatens to unravel years of progress in fortifying economies and fighting poverty. 

After 25 years of uninterrupted growth, the region this year will contract by 2.8%, the World Bank predicts.

The coronavirus has created “the biggest shock the global economy has faced over the last century,” Charles Calomiris, a professor of public affairs at Columbia, said at a World Bank web meeting on June 1. 

And rapidly expanding debt loads in developing countries, particularly Africa, will only magnify the difficulties. 

“I’m scared to death,” he says. “The risks associated with this protracted and severe crisis coming from the unpayable debt problem are going to be unprecedented.”

Public debt, which had doubled to about half the continent’s economic output since 2008, was raising alarm bells at the International Monetary Fund even before the Covid-19 pandemic.“Our leaders have two choices: You either pay obligations to bondholders or you buy medicine, food, and fuel for your population,” says Vera Songwe, head of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa.African governments have sold almost $60 billion in bonds to private investors in the past two years to pay for highways, factories, and wages for their sprawling bureaucracies.Yields on African bonds have dropped to about 9% from almost 13% in May, indicating that investors are more optimistic about getting repaid. 


Those lower yields mean governments may be able to raise funds in coming months even as their revenue plummets. And a recovery in prices for oil and minerals will help exporting countries.


But many academics have begun comparing the looming debt crisis in Africa to the sovereign and corporate defaults that engulfed Latin America following an influx of petrodollars in the 1980s. 

That calamity led to years of economic turmoil in what became known as the region’s lost decade as countries starved for cash suffered recurring defaults to international banks. 

“African growth will be stopped in its tracks,” says Patrick Bolton, a professor of business at Columbia. “The way things are playing out, there will likely be difficult debt restructurings ahead.”

“The restructuring process has this long back-and-forth,” Reinhart said at the June 1 World Bank web conference. “I look at the restructurings of the 1920s and 1930s, and of the 1980s and 1990s, and what I see is a decade-long process.”

The share of African government revenue that goes toward external debt service has almost tripled, to an average of 13%, in the past 10 years, according to the Jubilee Debt Campaign, a London group that advocates relief for poor countries

The risk is greatest in countries highly reliant on sales of a single commodity. Zambia, which gets 70% of its foreign exchange from copper exports, has seen its external government debt jump sevenfold in a decade, to more than $11 billion

In May it appointed a financial adviser to restructure its obligations. The IMF predicts that debt service in Angola, Africa’s No. 2 oil producer, this year will cost more than the government’s total revenue, and the Finance Ministry has contacted China about rescheduling some loans.

To stave off economic collapse, 25 African finance ministers in March wrote a letter to global leaders asking for delays in $44 billion in debt payments due this year while they focus on fighting the virus. 

In response, the Group of 20 leading economies proposed an eight-month suspension of payments—totaling about $11 billion—from 73 of the world’s poorest countries, most of them in Africa. But progress has been slow, and only 12 countries have gotten a waiver so far.The World Bank and other development banks, which hold about a third of sub-Saharan Africa’s external public debt, say a suspension threatens to tarnish their own credit score; Fitch Ratings Inc. has said a repayment freeze could spur a downgrade for development banks unless shareholders compensate them for losses

 

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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa


Everyone knows how this story ends. When the music stops, everyone will dash for the Exit

It would not be an exaggeration to say we are staring into the abyss of a Zombie Apocalypse. #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word

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14-OCT-2019 :: Ozymandias
World Of Finance


It seems to me that we are at a pivot moment and we can keep regurgitating the same old Mantras like a stuck record and if we do that this turns Ozymandias

My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings; Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair! Nothing beside remains. Round the decay Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare. The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

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19-APR-2020 :: China Africa Win Win
Africa


And the entire China Africa relationship has been an extraordinary exercise in Narrative Framing and linguistic control, accompanied by a chorus of Party Hacks chirruping Hosannas at every turn amplifying largely meaningless feel good Phrases artfully placed in the mouths of our Politicians and our Newspapers. It is remarkable.

September has just set in Beijing, bringing with it refreshing breeze and picturesque autumn scenery.

"The ocean is vast because it rejects no rivers."


 Together, we could make China and Africa beautiful places for people to live in harmony with nature.

4/12 Curiosamente, esse período marcou uma das piores décadas para esse mercado na história. É incontestável a contradição entre esses números, presumivelmente mais apurados, e os números “criados” pelo próprio governo comunista Chinês.


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The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
Africa


Kano in Nigeria for example
Western Cape growing at an alarming rate @sugan250388
Someone with close knowledge of the medical profession said it was almost impossible to secure a hospital bed in several cities.
The Aga Khan hospital in Dar es Salaam had a well-equipped ward for 80 coronavirus patients, but several were dying each night, he said.
The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?



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The first known emergence of Ebola Zaire—the hottest subtype of Ebola virus— happened in September, 1976
Africa


The first known emergence of Ebola Zaire—the hottest subtype of Ebola virus— happened in September, 1976, when the virus erupted simultaneously in fifty-five villages near the Ebola River. 

Ebola Zaire is a slate-wiper in humans. It killed eighty- eight per cent of the people it infected. Apart from rabies and the human immunodeficiency virus, H.I.V., which causes aids, this was the highest rate of mortality that has been recorded for a human virus. 

Ebola was spread mainly among family members, through contact with bodily fluids and blood. Many of the people in Africa who came down with Ebola had handled Ebola-infected cadavers. It seems that one of Ebola’s paths wends to the living from the dead.

These remain precarious times.

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Virus closure protest leaves three dead in DR Congo @AFP @YahooNews
Africa

Kinshasa (AFP) - At least three people died during a protest by hundreds of demonstrators in the DR Congo capital against the coronavirus lockdown closure of the city's main market, officials and witnesses said.A spokesman for the Kinshasa provincial government said two people were electrocuted while another was crushed to death by the fleeing crowd after "trouble by people pretending to be trade unionists" from the market.

Demonstrators had stood their ground behind barriers that have since early April cut off the Gombe area housing the market as part of the fight against the spread of the coronavirus.

The protesters hurled insults at the Kinshasa governor, Gentiny Ngobila, calling him a "thief."

The Democratic Republic of Congo has suffered 90 deaths from the new coronavirus from 4,359 cases, including 3,864 in Kinshasa.

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Tanzania Parliament Speaker Job Ndugai said Parliament will swiftly begin the process of scrapping presidential term limits after October 2020 elections to extend @MagufuliJP rule @tz_business
Law & Politics

Tanzania Parliament Speaker Job Ndugai, a close ally of President John Magufuli, said Parliament will swiftly begin the process of scrapping presidential term limits after October 2020 elections to extend Magufuli's rule. He said Tanzania needs a RULER like Magufuli, not a leader

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S.Africa's business confidence hits record low as lockdown batters economy: survey @ReutersAfrica
World Of Finance


The Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) business confidence index (BCI), compiled by the Bureau for Economic Research, was at 5 points for the second quarter, the lowest level since the first survey in 1975 and down from 18 points for the first quarter.

Africa’s most industrialised economy, which entered its second recession in two years in 2019, has been largely shut down since late March, when the government imposed severe restrictions to stem the spread of the novel coronavirus.

The country began phased easing of the lockdown in May.

“COVID-19 has drastically changed the already-weak economic landscape and perhaps, in some cases, permanently,” RMB chief economist Ettienne le Roux said.

“We are likely only beginning to fully appreciate the complexity of the economic impacts of this pandemic.”

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Mombasa auction has seen high withdrawal of tea in the last 2 sales as the price of the commodity tumbles. @moneyacademyKE
Commodities


In sale held in last 3 weeks, traders withdrew 20% of tea from the floor of the auction as the price of the commodity dipped to Sh188 from Sh192 last week — Business Daily

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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