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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 16th of June 2020
 



"Globally, more than 7.8 million cases of #COVID19 have now been reported to WHO, and more than 430,000 deaths. @Laurie_Garrett
Market Crashes / Panic

'It took more than 2 mos for the 1st 100,000 cases to be reported. For the past 2 wks, >100,000 new cases have been reported almost every day."

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"The Facility will leverage the Treasury equity at 10 to 1 when acquiring corporate bonds of issuers that are investment grade" @NorthmanTrader
World Of Finance


"The Facility will leverage the Treasury equity at 10 to 1 when acquiring corporate bonds of issuers that are investment grade at the time of purchase and when acquiring ETFs whose primary investment objective is exposure to U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds."



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10-MAY-2020 :: ―Brazil is the global epicenter of the coronavirus.
Market Crashes / Panic


In Brazil we have a toxic mix of a „‟Voodoo‟‟ President @jairbolsonaro and a runaway #COVID19

Brazilians aren‘t infected by anything, even when they fall into a sewer

“It‟s tragic surrealism ... I can‟t stop thinking about Gabriel García Márquez when I think about the situation Manaus is facing.” Guardian

Viruses are in essence non linear exponential and multiplicative and COVID19 has „‟escape velocity‟‟ in Brazil.

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US has sent three aircraft carriers to patrol the South China Sea @asiatimesonline
Law & Politics


In a move considered provocative by China, the US has sent three aircraft carriers to patrol the South China Sea, a move surely intended as a warning as bilateral tensions rise, The Global Times reported.

The three US aircraft carriers, namely the USS Theodore Roosevelt, USS Nimitz and USS Ronald Reagan, together with other US naval warships and aircraft, are patrolling the Indo-Pacific waters, the Associated Press reported.

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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward The Markets are very complacent about A US China ‘’Hot War’’
World Of Finance

It has come to a Put Up or Shut Up moment Matters India Taiwan South China Sea et al. Neither Side have an ‘’Off Ramp’’ and the US Electoral Cycle and the ‘’Wolf Warrior’’ Strategy all point at more intensity rather than less.

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The Pandemic and Political Order @ForeignAffairs @FukuyamaFrancis
Law & Politics



Major crises have major consequences, usually unforeseen.
 The Great Depression spurred isolationism, nationalism, fascism, and World War II—but also led to the New Deal, the rise of the United States as a global superpower, and eventually decolonization. The 9/11 attacks produced two failed American interventions, the rise of Iran, and new forms of Islamic radicalism. The 2008 financial crisis generated a surge in antiestablishment populism that replaced leaders across the globe. Future historians will trace comparably large effects to the current coronavirus pandemic; the challenge is figuring them out ahead of time.

It is already clear why some countries have done better than others in dealing with the crisis so far, and there is every reason to think those trends will continue. It is not a matter of regime type. Some democracies have performed well, but others have not, and the same is true for autocracies. The factors responsible for successful pandemic responses have been state capacity, social trust, and leadership. Countries with all three—a competent state apparatus, a government that citizens trust and listen to, and effective leaders—have performed impressively, limiting the damage they have sufferedCountries with dysfunctional states, polarized societies, or poor leadership have done badly, leaving their citizens and economies exposed and vulnerable. 

The more that is learned about COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, the more it seems the crisis will be protracted, measured in years rather than quarters. The virus appears less deadly than feared, but very contagious and often transmitted asymptomatically. Ebola is highly lethal but hard to catch; victims die quickly, before they can pass it on. COVID-19 is the opposite, which means that people tend not to take it as seriously as they should, and so it has, and will continue to, spread widely across the globe, causing vast numbers of deaths. There will be no moment when countries will be able to declare victory over the disease; rather, economies will open up slowly and tentatively, with progress slowed by subsequent waves of infections. Hopes for a V-shaped recovery appear wildly optimistic. More likely is an L with a long tail curving upward or a series of Ws. The world economy will not go back to anything like its pre-COVID state anytime soon. 

Economically, a protracted crisis will mean more business failures and devastation for industries such as shopping malls, retail chains, and travel. Levels of market concentration in the U.S. economy had been rising steadily for decades, and the pandemic will push the trend still further. Only large companies with deep pockets will be able to ride out the storm, with the technology giants gaining most of all, as digital interactions become ever more important.

The political consequences could be even more significant. Populations can be summoned to heroic acts of collective self-sacrifice for a while, but not forever. A lingering epidemic combined with deep job losses, a prolonged recession, and an unprecedented debt burden will inevitably create tensions that turn into a political backlash—but against whom is as yet unclear.

The global distribution of power will continue to shift eastward, since East Asia has done better at managing the situation than Europe or the United States. Even though the pandemic originated in China and Beijing initially covered it up and allowed it to spread, China will benefit from the crisis, at least in relative terms

The United States, in contrast, has bungled its response badly and seen its prestige slip enormously. The country has vast potential state capacity and had built an impressive track record over previous epidemiological crises, but its current highly polarized society and incompetent leader blocked the state from functioning effectively
 The world can watch TV, too, and has stood by in amazement, with China quick to make the comparison clear.

Over the years to come, the pandemic could lead to the United States’ relative decline, the continued erosion of the liberal international order, and a resurgence of fascism around the globe.

Pessimistic outcomes are easy to imagine. Nationalism, isolationism, xenophobia, and attacks on the liberal world order have been increasing for years.The rise of nationalism will increase the possibility of international conflict.Poor countries with crowded cities and weak public health systems will be hit hard. Not just social distancing but even simple hygiene such as hand washing is extremely difficult in countries where many citizens have no regular access to clean water. And governments have often made matters worse rather than better—whether by design, by inciting communal tensions and undermining social cohesion, or by simple incompetence. India, for example, increased its vulnerability by declaring a sudden nationwide shutdown without thinking through the consequences for the tens of millions of migrant laborers who crowd into every large city. Many went to their rural homes, spreading the disease throughout the country; once the government reversed its position and began to restrict movement, a large number found themselves trapped in cities without work, shelter, or care.

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A Non Linear and exponential Virus represents the greatest risk to a Control Machine
Market Crashes / Panic



Many of us sit and watch The Daily White House Briefing

A reality TV star botched the response to a global pandemic and now we are all imprisoned in our homes and forced to watch him daily. @JenaFriedman

It is a monstrous Joke of sycophancy.

The Tsinghua University professor Xu Zhangrun said this about the CCP

What is thriving, however, is all that ridiculous ―Red Culture & nauseating adulation that system heaps on itself via shameless pro-Party hacks who chirrup hosannahs at every turn

The Professor could equally have been speaking about the Trump White House.

The virus may be the most dangerous adversary America has ever faced. It's like the US was invaded. Tweeted @balajis

The normal defenses fail. It can't be bombed. Bank accounts can't be frozen. Unbreakable morale. No supply chain. Lives off the land. Infinite reinforcements. Fully decentralized.

I wrote a Non Linear and exponential Virus represents the greatest risk to a Control Machine in point of fact #COVID19.


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Simply fails to comprehend that the ‘’Slaves’’ are now in revolt.
World Of Finance


It is about the Haves and the Have Nots. Its about the moment of Epiphany when the Have Nots appreciate the predicament in which they have been placed and identify with each other rather than a ‘’boogaloo’’ structure that has been placed upon them.

Will they have that moment of Epiphany? Well There certainly has not been a more ‘’conducive’’ moment.

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Canadian scientist sent deadly viruses to Wuhan lab months before RCMP asked to investigate @CBCNews
Market Crashes / Panic

 


Newly-released access-to-information documents reveal details about a shipment of deadly pathogens last year from Canada's National Microbiology Lab to China — confirming for the first time who sent them, what exactly was shipped, and where it went.

CBC News had already reported about the shipment of Ebola and Henipah viruses but there's now confirmation one of the scientists escorted from the lab in Winnipeg amid an RCMP investigation last July was responsible for exporting the pathogens to the Wuhan Institute of Virology four months earlier.

Dr. Xiangguo Qiu, her husband Keding Cheng and her students from China were removed from Canada's only level-4 lab over what's described as a possible "policy breach." 


The administrative investigation is not related to the shipment of virus samples to China," Eric Morrissette, chief of media relations for Health Canada and the Public Health Agency of Canada wrote in an email.

"In response to a request from the Wuhan Institute of Virology for viral samples of Ebola and Henipah viruses, the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) sent samples for the purpose of scientific research in 2019."

However, experts are concerned.

"It is suspicious. It is alarming. It is potentially life-threatening," said Amir Attaran, a law professor and epidemiologist at the University of Ottawa.


"We have a researcher who was removed by the RCMP from the highest security laboratory that Canada has for reasons that government is unwilling to disclose. The intelligence remains secret. But what we know is that before she was removed, she sent one of the deadliest viruses on Earth, and multiple varieties of it to maximize the genetic diversity and maximize what experimenters in China could do with it, to a laboratory in China that does dangerous gain of function experiments. And that has links to the Chinese military."

"The Wuhan lab does them and we have now supplied them with Ebola and Nipah viruses. It does not take a genius to understand that this is an unwise decision," he said.


Ebola Makona (three different varieties)

Mayinga.

Kikwit.

Ivory Coast.

Bundibugyo.

Sudan Boniface.

Sudan Gulu.

MA-Ebov.

GP-Ebov.

GP-Sudan.

Hendra.

Nipah Malaysia.

Nipah Bangladesh.

The ATIP documents provide details about the months leading up to the shipment — including confusion over how to package the deadly viruses — the lack of decontamination of the package before it was sent, and concerns expressed by the NML's director-general Matthew Gilmour in Winnipeg, and his superiors in Ottawa. 

They wanted to know where the package was going, what was in it, and whether it had the proper paperwork.

In one email, Gilmour said Material Transfer Agreements would be required, "not generic 'guarantees' on the storage and usage."

He also asked David Safronetz, chief of special pathogens: "Good to know that you trust this group. How did we get connected with them?"

Safronetz replied: "They are requesting material from us due to collaboration with Dr. Qiu."

'Aren't you making a mistake here?' If that had not happened, the scientists would have placed on an Air Canada flight, several of them actually, a deadly virus incorrectly packaged. That nearly happened," Attaran said.

The package was routed from Winnipeg to Toronto and then to Beijing on a commercial Air Canada flight on Mar. 31, 2019. 

early one year after the expulsion of Qiu, Cheng, and her students from the NML, there are still no updates on the case from the RCMP or PHAC.early one year after the expulsion of Qiu, Cheng, and her students from the NML, there are still no updates on the case from the RCMP or PHAC.Qiu could also not be reached for a comment.


 

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We have a new Ebola epidemic in Mbandaka,” Longondo told reporters.
Africa



The outbreak was confirmed by World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who tweeted: “This outbreak is a reminder that #COVID19 is not the only health threat people face.”

Congo has been struggling to put an end to a nearly two-year-old Ebola outbreak near its eastern borders with Rwanda and Uganda, which has killed more than 2,200 people, the world’s second-deadliest outbreak of the disease on record.

It was days away in April from declaring the end of that outbreak, its tenth since the virus was discovered in 1976, when a new chain of infection was confirmed in the east. However, no new cases have been detected there in over 30 days.



The first known emergence of Ebola Zaire—the hottest subtype of Ebola virus— happened in September, 1976, when the virus erupted simultaneously in fifty-five villages near the Ebola River. 

Ebola Zaire is a slate-wiper in humans. It killed eighty- eight per cent of the people it infected. 

Apart from rabies and the human immunodeficiency virus, H.I.V., which causes aids, this was the highest rate of mortality that has been recorded for a human virus. 

Ebola was spread mainly among family members, through contact with bodily fluids and blood. 

Many of the people in Africa who came down with Ebola had handled Ebola-infected cadavers. It seems that one of Ebola’s paths wends to the living from the dead.

These remain precarious times.


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Is Kim Jong Un’s sister next in line in North Korea?
Law & Politics



Quite a mouthful, but it eventually turned out that the editorial had coincided with the Central Committee’s unannounced endorsement of Kim Jong Il’s selection as eventual successor to his father, Great Leader Kim Il Sung, who was the president and the party general secretary and was about to turn 62.

From then for six years until Kim Jong Il was publicly designated as successor in 1980, the term “Party Center” was a tease often employed by the regime’s media – a hint that someone, who would not yet be identified by name or normal title, was deeply involved, along with the named and titled ruler, in running the country.

So what does it mean that, this past Friday, the same newspaper brought back the teasing term after four decades of non-use? 

Has someone – most likely first sister Kim Yo Jong – been non-publicly named to serve as the right hand of current, not terribly healthy looking ruler Kim Jong Un and become his replacement in case of Kim’s untimely death?

If so, is that just a routine dynastic precaution dealing with the fact the 36-year-old Kim Jong Un has no son who’ll be old enough to rule anytime soon? (Some reports say he has a 10-year-old son.)


Or is Kim, as speculation and rumor periodically suggest, seriously ill, perhaps terminally?


While we needn’t jump to extreme conclusions, it would be a mistake to minimize the importance of the regime’s revival of a term so pregnant with meaning.

As transated by Tara O on the East Asia Research Center blog, the new Nodong Sinmun article emphasizes the need to rally around “Dear Marshal” Kim Jong Un and then says, 

“There is no power in the world that will block our proletariat’s move forward that advances [earlier than planned] the tomorrow of shiny fatherland prosperity by going together in ideology, intent and action with the Great ‘Center of the Party.’” 

O quotes North Korea watcher Yoo Dong-yeol, president of the Korean Institute of Liberal Democracy, as pointing out: “They could’ve said ‘Central Party Committee'” – but instead chose the non-collective, historically very individual term.


Thenceforth Kim Jong-il “was not merely number two in the power hierarchy,” high-ranking defector Hwang Jang-yop recalled later. “This is what sets him apart from his uncle Kim Yong Ju.”


The Party Center’s power was far greater than his uncle had ever wielded. 

From 1974, said Hwang, “even the most insignificant report could not reach Kim Il Sung without going through Kim Jong Il first, and none of Kim Il Sung’s instructions could reach his subordinates without going through Kim Jong Il first.”


In 1975, Kim Jong Il’s portrait started to appear alongside that of his father’s in public places – but still the code term “Party Center” was used and his name was rarely heard in public.
Kim Jong Il mobilized relatively young people to help him. Totally in charge of propaganda for the party starting in 1973, he commanded the newly formed Three Revolution Teams – North Korea’s answer to China’s Red Guards

He and his loyalists pushed aside older figures, many of whom were purged for alleged incompetence or insufficiently “revolutionary” attitudes.

“He’s also an excellent film director – maybe something like Hitchcock but of a different genre. Lenin is credited with fostering and training and inspiring Russian novelist Gorky, but Kim Jong Il is doing a similar job.”Choe did not answer directly, but said simply that a great composer is never the best singer, and that Alfred Hitchcock, although a great director, was never a great actor.One day he was a 27-year-old son starting to learn the family business and the next day (December 17, 2011) his father was dead and it was his turn to take over.One day he was a 27-year-old son starting to learn the family business and the next day (December 17, 2011) his father was dead and it was his turn to take over.What better way for the regime to check that hypothesis and combat the style of thinking behind it than to crown a woman anonymously as the “Party Center” and let people get used to the idea of her exercising great power?

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12-FEB-2018 :: What we saw unfold in Pyeongchang marks a significant and iconic moment for the Mount Paektu Bloodline
Law & Politics


Kim Jong-un unleashed his secret weapon on the world, that secret weapon being his sister Kim Yo Jong, who evidently bamboozled South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in.

“I wish I can see you in Pyongyang at an early date,” Kim Yo Jong told Mr Moon.

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30-APR-2018 :: "A new history starts now. An age of peace, from the starting point of history."
Law & Politics

The Events that took place on Friday at the truce village of Panmunjom and during the Inter-Korean Summit were breathtaking for the Hollywood Optics. The Opening Shot of Kim Jong Un surrounded by a Phalanx of North Korean Officials [later replayed as Chairman Kim sat in his Presidential Vehicle surrounded by his Ninja bodyguards] was almost as good as the opening Sequence in PT Anderson's Boogie Nights [Steadicam operator Andy Shuttleworth]. This was Cinema of the highest level which is no surprise when You consider that Kim Jong-Il the Father was obsessed with Cinema and amassed arguably the world’s largest personal film collection: over 20,000 bootlegged 35mm screening copies. Kim Jong-Il also had a penchant for Hennessy Paradis cognac and for two years in the mid-1990s, he was the world's largest buyer of Hennessy Paradis cognac, importing up to $800,000 of the stuff a year.  Kim Jong-Il began his career as the head of the state’s propaganda and agitation department and its clear that Kim Jong-Un's sister Kim Yo Jong who holds the same role and evidently handles all the optics, is a chip off the old Block. Friday was tip-top Geopolitical Optics. Mike

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29-11-2010 FAR away in distant lands lies the Hermit Kingdom They all have had tiny little hands like the Elves in the Elves and the Shoemaker.
Law & Politics

They all have had tiny little hands like the Elves in the Elves and the Shoemaker. And this country has nuclear weapons and on its border with its neighbour South Korea sit 25,000 American soldiers.

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How elves are traditionally described in mythology share a lot of commonality with the jinn. @aaolomi
Misc.


There have been some who see them as related: parallel worlds, social structure, connection with magic and mischief etc  there are differences of course but the parallels are striking

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1336

Dollar Index 96.551

Japan Yen 107.55

Swiss Franc 0.9497

Pound 1.2659

Aussie 0.6940

India Rupee 75.8375

South Korea Won 1207.90

Brazil Real 5.15596

Egypt Pound 16.18

South Africa Rand 17.0487



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General Birhanu Jula said that his country will “defend itself by force and will not negotiate over its right to the Renaissance Dam, which has caused tension with Egypt.” @The_NewArab
Law & Politics


“Egyptians and the rest of the world know too well how we conduct war whenever it comes,” Jula added, saying that Egyptian leaders’ “distorted narrative” on Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam is attracting enemies.

He accused Egypt of using its weapons to “threaten and tell other countries not to touch the shared water" and said “the way forward should be cooperation in a fair manner.”

The general also said that “all the keys to victory are in the hands of Ethiopia”, noting Egyptians should know they could not frighten Ethiopia or enter Ethiopian territory to take control of the Nile.

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19-APR-2020 :: China Africa Win Win
China

"The ocean is vast because it rejects no rivers." 

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21-JAN-2019 :: The Mind Game that ZANU-PF played on its citizens has evaporated in a puff of smoke
Law & Politics


I have been reading Yuval Noah Harari and in his best-seller he says this about money;

“Money is accordingly a system of mutual trust, and not just any system of mutual trust: money is the most universal and most efficient system of mutual trust ever devised.”

“Cowry shells and dollars have value only in our common imagination. Their worth is not inherent in the chemical structure of the shells and paper, or their colour, or their shape. In other words, money isn’t a material reality – it is a psychological construct. It works by converting matter into mind.”

The Point I am seeking to make is that There is a correlation between high Inflation and revolutionary conditions, Zimbabwe is a classic example where there are $9.3 billion of Zollars in banks compared to $200 million in reserves, official data showed.

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02-MAR-2020 :: The #COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa



We Know that the #Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.

what exponential disease propagation looks like in the real world. Real world exponential growth looks like nothing, nothing, nothing ... then cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM!


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10-MAY-2020 :: The worrying development is Transmission Hotspots #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
Africa


Kano in Nigeria for example
Western Cape growing at an alarming rate @sugan250388
Someone with close knowledge of the medical profession said it was almost impossible to secure a hospital bed in several cities.
The Aga Khan hospital in Dar es Salaam had a well-equipped ward for 80 coronavirus patients, but several were dying each night, he said.
The Question for SSA is whether these Transmission Hot Spots expand and conflate?

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Coronavirus stalks Burundi’s political elite after president’s death
Law & Politics


Photographs circulated on Burundian social media this weekend showing Evariste Ndayishimiye, the president-elect, signing the condolence book of recently deceased president, Pierre Nkurunziza. 

Such is the climate of fear and rumour in Bujumbura that some were genuinely surprised to see that the president-elect was actually alive.Other members of his family, including his mother, are also said to have been infected with the virus, prompting one diplomat to call Nkurunziza a “super spreader”.“It seems that the virus has really shaken the top of the party,” said Ketty Nyivabandi, a poet and activist from Burundi who lives in exile in Canada. “It’s a strange and interesting time in Burundi right now.”

Mr Ndayishimiye, the candidate for the ruling CNDD-FDD party, told one rally not to worry about Covid-19. “Do not be afraid” he said. “God loves Burundi and if there are people who have tested positive it is so that God may manifest his power.”

Officially, Burundi has just 85 cases and only one person has died of the virus, though few health experts accept the government’s data. In May, Burundi expelled the World Health Organisation team monitoring the outbreak. 

“The Covid situation in Burundi is awful. It is really, really bad,” said one western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. 

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The coronavirus outbreaks in South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, & Ethiopia. @MaxCRoser
Africa


In relation to the size of the respective populations, the numbers are low.

But in all 4 countries new confirmed cases continue to rise, and relative to the size of the outbreaks they are all testing little.

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South Africa Won’t Join Collective Talks to Suspend African Debt @markets
Emerging Markets


South Africa won’t join collective negotiations with creditors to suspend or write off African nations’ debt, an envoy for the country told the Sunday Times newspaper.

Trevor Manuel, a special envoy to the African Union, said his country’s position was complex because most of its debt is held locally. 

Some African governments are pushing for a moratorium to repay international creditors after coronavirus-induced lockdowns damaged their economies.

“The bulk of the debt is actually held by South African pension funds,” the former finance minister said. 

“Once you enter into these kinds of agreements you might actually be compelled to say to South African pension funds, we are sorry but [we] can’t deal with your pensions.”

Institutions including the World Bank and International Monetary Fund have indicated they would negotiate with each country individually and not as a bloc, he said.

The World Bank warned in April that sub-Saharan Africa will suffer its first recession in 25 years, with gross domestic product in the region probably shrinking between 2.1% and 5.1% in 2020. 

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said in late May that the continent could get more than $200 billion in additional support after the United Nations called for a global response package for the virus.

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Kenya Power & Lighting Plc -Cautionary Statement. (Profit Warning) @KenyaPower
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Cautionary Statement: The Board of Directors pursuant to the provisions of the Fifth Schedule of the Capital Markets Regulations, 2002, issues this announcement to shareholders of the Company, stakeholders and the general public. 



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@KenyaPower share price data
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied



Closing Price:           2.37

Market Capitalization: 4,624,976,897

EPS:             0.13

PE:                 18.231


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Africa


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2020
 
 
 
 
 
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