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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 18th of May 2021

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09-MAY-2021 :: The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance

The Markets

The liquidity of this complex is illusory, as the reflexivity embedded within creates a lurking shadow convexity that is vulnerable to predatory flows. @FadingRallies 

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The Markets Are Wilding
World Of Finance

Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom. VS NAIPAUL

“The businessman bought at ten and was happy to get out at twelve; the mathematician saw his ten rise to eighteen, but didn’t sell because he wanted to double his ten to twenty.”

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28-MAR-2021 :: The Pandemic Is a Portal
World Of Finance

The fact that a largecap like $VIAC could fall by 40% in one day due to one single shareholder liquidating is a good reminder that public market “valuations” are only based on what the marginal buyer is willing to pay for a marginal share. @ecommerceshares

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''Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro."
World Of Finance

GameKyuubi posted "I AM HODLING," a drunk, semi-coherent, typo-laden rant about his poor trading skills and determination to simply hold his bitcoin from that point on.

"I type d that tyitle twice because I knew it was wrong the first time. Still wrong. w/e," he wrote in reference to the now-famous misspelling of "holding." 

"WHY AM I HOLDING? I'LL TELL YOU WHY," he continued. 

"It's because I'm a bad trader and I KNOW I'M A BAD TRADER.  Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro."

He concluded that the best course was to hold, since "You only sell in a bear market if you are a good day trader or an illusioned noob.  The people inbetween hold. In a zero-sum game such as this, traders can only take your money if you sell." 

He then confessed he'd had some whiskey and briefly mused about the spelling of whisk(e)y.  [HODL Definition | Investopedia]

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The story of Sir Isaac Newton and the South Sea Bubble.
World Of Finance

Graham writes,

Back in the spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England. 

Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that he ‘could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.’ Newton dumped his South Sea shares, pocketing a 100% profit totaling £7,000. 

But just months later, swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price — and lost £20,000 (or more than $3 million in [2002-2003’s] money. 

For the rest of his life, he forbade anyone to speak the words ‘South Sea’ in his presence.

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Robert Frank Children with Sparklers in Provincetown Massachusetts, 1958 @deryainciderya

"Time is a flat circle. Everything we have done or will do we will do over and over and over again- forever."

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The Pandemic is a Portal
World Of Finance

Dreaming of escape and travel and of portals through which I would pass like I imagined there was a portal at the bottom of my garden in Mombasa through which I could pass and return.

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Israel Faces Greater Dangers Than Hamas @bopinion Pankaj Mishra
Law & Politics

Israel and Hamas have taken to open warfare yet again. The sense of déjà vu, as the militant group’s rocket attacks on Israeli territory are met by retaliatory airstrikes in Gaza, is compounded by Western politicians repeating an old formula: “Israel has the right to defend itself.”

That’s undoubtedly true. And yet it’s equally clear that Israeli actions are unlikely to deter Hamas. 

Nor will re-establishing military superiority over a technologically primitive enemy obscure Israel’s new and acute vulnerabilities.

The shocking images of lynch mobs and street fighting between Arabs and Jews within Israel underscore the fact that the most formidable threat to the country’s present and future stability is now internal

About one in 5 Israelis are Arabs, the descendants of Palestinians who stayed in the country after the creation of Israel in 1948, and they have long been disaffected.

Feeling marginalized even further by 2018 legislation that exalted Israel’s Jewish majority above all other groups, as well as the mainstreaming of explicitly racist, far-right Israeli parties, Arab Israelis have now erupted into open mutiny.

The mob violence between Jews and Arabs should not be underestimated: It represents a watershed in the history of Israel. 

For traditions of co-existence cannot be repaired once they have been so brutally violated. 

The bitter history of communal fratricide in India and Pakistan tells us that the legacy of hate and suspicion corrode a country from within, making it even more susceptible to far-right movements.

Israel’s external challenges have been multiplying, too. Reflexive pro-Israel statements from Western politicians have long obscured the unease they feel about the country’s direction. 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel summed up the tension in 2011 after a crucial United Nations resolution against Israel that both Germany and the United States unprecedentedly supported.

Chastised by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Merkel reportedly said, “How dare you? … You haven't made a single step to advance peace.”

Forging intimate relations with such figures as Narendra Modi, Jair Bolsonaro and Viktor Orban, Netanyahu openly scorned the Obama administration when the latter tried to check Israel’s settlement program in the West Bank. 

In another instance of myopic policy, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister allied his country closely to the Republican right as President Donald Trump facilitated a series of diplomatic victories for him.

Trump trashed the nuclear deal with Iran, moved the U.S embassy to the disputed city of Jerusalem, cut off U.S. aid to Palestinians and supervised Israel’s entente with Gulf Arab regimes.

But not even Trump-friendly Arab despots can afford to remain silent when Israeli police assault Islam’s third-holiest site

And the Biden administration, which adopted a standoffish approach to the Israel-Palestine issue, cannot do much as China, enthused by the success of its vaccine diplomacy, steps in.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent six-country tour of the Middle East proclaimed his country’s intention to involve itself in the region’s most complicated issue. 

China has even offered to host peace talks between Israeli and Palestinian leaders. 

Beijing’s increased proximity to Iran should leave no one in doubt over which side it’s likely to favor.

More significantly, Israel has been steadily losing its moral stature as a nation-state built for and by victims of monstrous crimes against Jews. 

For many Europeans and Americans who came of age after 1945, the Holocaust was the main, if not the sole, touchstone for moral and historical awareness. 

This made for understandably deep emotional identification with and stalwart support for Israel, especially when the country faced existential threats.

Today, a younger generation of Westerners is learning about older and relatively under-explored crimes of white supremacy (genocide, slavery and colonialism) and their present-day manifestations in structural forms of cruelty and injustice. 

Statues have been toppled, educational syllabuses revised with a view to diversity, and reparations proposed for historical victims of racist and supremacist regimes.

Israel, recently indicted by Human Rights Watch in a 224-page report for “crimes against humanity of apartheid and persecution,” seems to embody many of the things that politicized young people loathe about the past and present.

The historian Tony Judt, who was a fervent Zionist in his youth, warned in 2003 that “the very idea of a ‘Jewish state’ — a state in which Jews and the Jewish religion have exclusive privileges from which non-Jewish citizens are forever excluded — is rooted in another time and place.”

Judt’s belief that Israel is an “anachronism” feels truer today. 

At a time when institutions and individuals struggle to understand and overthrow “unconscious bias,” a majoritarian Israel appears to be a case study in conscious and unreconstructed bias.

Israel, of course, has the right to defend itself against Hamas’s rockets. 

As always, it will exercise that right robustly. However, against many other clear and present dangers in the wider world, Israel is growing increasingly defenseless.

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Global overview: The number of new COVID-19 cases and deaths globally slightly decreased this week, with Global 5 517 602 -4% cases Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 11 May 2021 @WHO

Case and death incidences, however, remain at the highest levels since the beginning of the pandemic. 

While India continues to account for 95% of cases and 93% of deaths in the South-East Asia Region, as well as 50% of global cases and 30% of global deaths, worrying trends have been observed in neighbouring countries.

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This drop in confirmed COVID cases in India is an illusion. confirmed cases can only occur where you can confirm: the urban areas. Rural areas are not getting counted. @VincentRK

This drop in confirmed COVID cases in India is an illusion. First, due to limited testing, the total number of cases is a huge underestimate. Second, confirmed cases can only occur where you can confirm: the urban areas. Rural areas are not getting counted. 

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Excerpt. ''Lord, in your ideal realm the hearse is now the Ganga” @BasuAshis
Law & Politics

“Lord, your crematoriums are too few; fewer the wood for pyres

Lord, our pall-bearers are too few, fewer yet the mourners

Lord, in every home Yama performs the dance macabre

Lord, in your ideal realm the hearse is now the Ganga”

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Email from Nepali Dr friend today. "The situation is really bad here in Nepal...> 60 % of the population already infected. The positivity rate among tested is 45%.." @globalhlthtwit

Email from Nepali Dr friend today. "The situation is really bad here in Nepal...> 60 % of the population already infected. The positivity rate among tested is 45%. Mortality per day (1.8%)...no beds + severe shortage of oxygen supply. Most deaths are due to  lack of oxygen."

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Countries w/ fastest #COVID19 case growth rate (daily / total) @jmlukens

Seychelles: 5.80%

Timor-Leste: 4.67%

Laos: 3.52%

Vietnam: 3.46%

Maldives: 3.37%

Taiwan: 3.30%

Fiji: 2.93%

Thailand: 2.89%

Trinidad and Tobago: 2.79%

Papua New Guinea: 2.39%

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Covid Is Airborne, Scientists Say. Now Authorities Think So, Too @business

A quiet revolution has permeated global health circles. Authorities have come to accept what many researchers have argued for over a year: The coronavirus can spread through the air.

“We are used to the fact that we have clean water coming from our taps,” said Lidia Morawska, a distinguished professor in the school of earth and atmospheric sciences at the Queensland University of Technology in Brisbane, Australia, who led the study. 

Likewise, “we should expect clean, pollutant- and pathogen-free air” from indoor spaces, she said over Zoom.

“No one takes responsibility for the air,” Morawska said. “It’s kind of accepted that the air could be of whatever quality -- containing viruses and pathogens.”

The biggest particles, including visible spatters of spittle, fall fast, settling on the ground or nearby surfaces, whereas the tiniest -- aerosols invisible to the naked eye -- can be carried farther and stay aloft longer, depending on humidity, temperature and airflow.

It’s these aerosol particles, which can linger for hours and travel indoors, that have have stoked controversy.

“A false narrative dominated public discussion for over a year,” she said. “This resulted in hygiene theater -- scrubbing of hands and surfaces for little gain -- while the pandemic wreaked mass destruction on the world.”

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In 1899, a German bacteriologist named Carl Flügge proved that microbes can be transmitted ballistically through large droplets that emit at high velocity from the mouth and nose.“Flügge droplets” @Quillette #COVID19

According to the binary model established in the 1930s, 

droplets typically are classified as either 

(1) large globules of the Flüggian variety—arcing through the air like a tennis ball until gravity brings them down to Earth; or 

(2) smaller particles, less than five to 10 micrometers in diameter (roughly a 10th the width of a human hair), which drift lazily through the air as fine aerosols.

That’s because those mucosalivary droplets we emit are cocooned within a warm, moist enveloping gas cloud—Bourouiba calls it a “puff”—that protects the droplets from evaporation and allows even small globules to travel much farther than one might otherwise predict.

The binary distinction between large and small droplets remains fundamental: Eventually, the big particles fall while the smaller ones don’t.

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09-MAY-2021 The Markets The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance

On 8th March when the Bears had gotten hold of the US 10 Year, I wrote that I expected the 10 Year to target 1.45% well we got real close on Friday before the market reversed 

Ten- year yields initially plunged to a more than two-month low of 1.46%, then reversed to end the day at 1.58%. However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now.

Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulusI have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.

The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM! 

I beg to differ

Furthermore The Central Banks are in a corner. 

They have fired a lot of bullets and even if there was a meaningful bounce they cannot raise rates.

Here is why central banks are trapped and cannot raise rates even if inflation rises: @dlacalle_IA Feb 2 

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
U.S. Economy

Euro 1.2195

Dollar Index 89.904

Japan Yen 108.996

Swiss Franc 0.8987

Pound 1.4193

Aussie 0.7807

India Rupee 72.989

South Korea Won 1128.005

Brazil Real 5.2734

Egypt Pound 15.6815

South Africa Rand 14.0334

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The gap between London house prices and those in northern England is at its narrowest since 2013 as a pandemic-induced “race for space” sends buyers in search of bargains way beyond the British capital. @economics
RealEstate, Housing & Construction

Property website Rightmove said Monday that asking prices for homes in Wales, northwest England and Yorkshire and The Humber have all surged by more than 10% since the pandemic began early last year. 

By contrast, they’ve barely moved in London, where values are now less than three times higher than in the north.

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The Post-Covid Office Needs a Makeover to Get Its Workers Back
RealEstate, Housing & Construction

Office spaces must emphasize “empathy and collaboration” and elevate three main principles: people first, dynamic and purposeful workspaces, and a culture of experimentation.

a “hybrid office,” a redesign obviously comes with a price tag. And while many firms have expressed interest in how to build that “magic” space

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$BTC Bitcoin Loses Cachet in Its Challenge to Gold @business @crypto
World Currencies

The ratio of Bitcoin’s price relative to gold is down to the lowest since early February amid greater caution about speculative assets and the economic recovery from the pandemic. 

One Bitcoin is now equivalent to about 23 ounces of bullion, down from a record of 36 ounces in April. 

The largest virtual currency is also smarting after tycoon Elon Musk said Tesla Inc. would no longer accept it for payments over environmental risks from high energy usage.

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COVID Surges in Northeast & South #China @IndoPac_Info

#Chinese state media reported that #COVID is surging in different parts of #China, leading to international events being postponed, districts entering lockdown & residents in outbreak areas being tested overnight.

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The Markets The Lotos-eaters Gold and Silver Have finally got the Big MO


Silver is the single most important asset that I’m focused on. @TaviCosta 

If I had to boil down my entire macro thesis into one position, it would undoubtedly be that.

Once silver breaks above $30, I believe we will see an explosive move to new highs.

04-JAN-2021 :: What Will Happen In 2021 I expect Gold to top $2,500 this year and Silver to reach $50.00 

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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 94 days @ReutersGraphics

Botswana at peak

Angola at 96% 

average number of new infections reported in Egypt has been increasing for 12 days straight

Average number of new infections reported in Réunion each day reaches new high: Now reporting more than 1,000 daily

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A look at some of the African successes and failures of poverty reduction over the last 30 years @rhaplord

Comparing the different poverty levels of $1, $3.2, $5.5, $10, $15, $20, $30 a day in 43 sub-saharan countries

-13 successes

-9 moderates

-16 laggards

-5 failures.

cc @ourworldindata

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Turning To Africa

We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''

Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

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The "Failures" on poverty reduction are : Zimbabwe, Zambia, south Sudan, Madagascar, Liberia @rhaplord

Liberia's civil war saw poverty rates rise from 6% in 1980s to 94% in the 1990s

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.@IMFNews Calls for Major Reforms to Turn Zimbabwe’s Economy Around @economics

Zimbabwe needs a “broader reform and stabilization agenda” to sustain an almost yearlong effort by authorities to support the local currency and lower inflation, the International Monetary Fund said.

The government should address pandemic-related health and social challenges, coordinate fiscal, foreign-exchange and monetary policies, and implement structural reforms aimed at improving the business climate and curbing corruption, an IMF spokesperson said Friday in an emailed response to questions.

Zimbabwe reintroduced its own currency in 2019 after a 10-year hiatus and has been battling bouts of high inflation and shortages of everything from foreign currency to food. 

The local unit, which was pegged at parity to the U.S. dollar two years ago, has plunged to 84.6 against the greenback, while annual inflation stands at 194%.

The IMF plans to hold a virtual staff visit in the first half of June, which would be a precursor to the country’s enrollment in a staff-monitored program. 

A previous program ended in February 2020, when the fund said Zimbabwe had gone “off track.”

“Fund staff will discuss recent macroeconomic developments, the authorities’ efforts in addressing the Covid-19 pandemic and vaccine roll-out, economic outlook and policies and capacity development priorities,” the spokesperson said.

Zimbabwe’s Treasury estimates the economy will grow 7.4% this year, though that’s more optimistic than the IMF’s 3.1% projection. 

Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube has forecast the inflation rate will drop to 15% by year-end.

“Fund staff take note of the authorities’ efforts to stabilize the local currency and lower inflation over the last few months,” the spokesperson said.

The government has yet to provide a clear plan on how the country will expunge almost $10 billion of debt owed to multilateral lenders including the World Bank, Paris Club and African Development Bank that are crucial for it to access fresh credit lines. 

The solution lies in “sound policies and donor support needed to resolve the debt overhang problem,” according to the IMF.

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The @IMFNews reaches staff-level agreement in review 1 of Kenya which will unlock ~$410m in funding. @MwangoCapital

Kenya will soon publish an audit of ALL COVID-related expenditures in Financial Year 2019/2020. 

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@CarandGeneral Car & General (Kenya) Ltd. reports HY EPS +178.88% Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           20.50
Total Shares Issued:          40103308.00
Market Capitalization:        822,117,814
EPS:             6.85
PE:                 2.993

Franchise holder for leading automotive and engineering products.
Car and General reports H1 Earnings through 31st March 2021 versus 6 months through 31st March 2020
HY Revenue 8.194696b versus 6.325945b +28%
HY Gross Profit 1.466985b versus 1.039755b
HY Operating and administrative expenses [744.036m] versus [644.748m]
HY Share of Profit in an associate 188.773m versus 120.001m
HY EBITDA 948.345m versus 560.044m
HY Finance Costs [192.687m] versus [231.868m]
HY Profit before Taxation 608.823m versus 209.256m
HY PAT 460.515m versus 164.764m
HY Other comprehensive Loss [42.075m] versus 1.746m]
Total Comprehensive Income 418.540m versus 163.018m
HY EPS 11.49 versus 4.12
Cash and cash Equivalents 214.574m versus 177.244m


Performance improved due to bigger sales in our consumer business [two and three wheelers]
Volumes in our equipment businesses also increased


very muscular
Forward implied PE is 1.

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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May 2021

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