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Thursday 20th of May 2021
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Morning
Africa
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Register and its all Free.
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Build a circus and the clowns will come. @NorthmanTrader
World Of Finance
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09-MAY-2021 :: The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance
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The Markets Are Wilding
World Of Finance
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I sold at 8 cause I changed my mind. Never fear the consequences of your mistakes... @hendry_hugh
World Of Finance
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Only you know...@hendry_hugh
World Of Finance
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08-MAR-2021 :: The lights must never go out, The music must always play
World Of Finance
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Federico Fellini's 8 1/2 @tcm
Misc.
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09-MAY-2021 :: The liquidity of this complex is illusory, as the reflexivity embedded within creates a lurking shadow convexity that is vulnerable to predatory flows. @FadingRallies
World Of Finance
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28-MAR-2021 :: The Pandemic Is a Portal
World Of Finance
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Schrauf, M., Lingelbach, B., Wist, E.R. (1997) The scintillating grid illusion. Vision Research, 37, 1033-1038. @AkiyoshiKitaoka
Misc.
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The Namib Desert flowing into the Atlantic. Namibia. © David Rouge @africageo
Africa
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''You felt the land taking you back to what was there a hundred years ago, to what had been there always.” ― V.S. Naipaul
Africa
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Flight over Tanzania’s Lake Manyara National Park with its meandering rivers and animal tracks. © Gabriela Staebler @africageo
Africa
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A flock of flamingos flying across the tranquil Lake Manyara at sunrise, Tanzania. Taken by @MesshamPhoto @andbeyondtravel
Africa
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I read @IainSTE's marvellous "Among the Elephants" [situated in] Lake Manyara years ago #Tweet4Elephants he is a legend
Africa
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Baobab Alley. Madagascar. © Andreas Just @africageo
Africa
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Panoramic view of Rajbagh lake in #ranthambhore @adityadickysin
Asia
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The Pandemic is a Portal
World Of Finance
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This is how it looks from the other end @adityadickysin
Misc.
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Volcanic Eruption in Geldingadalir, Iceland [oc] IG: @hemmi90 - Author: hermanntheguide on reddit - Youtube @amazinglybeaut
Misc.
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A decade of "semiotic arousal" when everything, it seemed, was a sign, a harbinger of some future radical disjuncture or cataclysmic upheaval.
Misc.
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Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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Whoever Controls The Narrative Controls The World
Law & Politics
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The bottom line is it’s just really hard, in an American society so focused on racial justice, to justify support for an ethno-national state that privileges one racial group over another in a diverse, mixed-race and -religion society. @sarahleah1
Law & Politics
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A Palestinian woman takes a selfie. The Dome of the Rock is seen in the background during Eid al-Fitr prayers. @GuyReuters
Law & Politics
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Saddam Hussein's Last Words: "To the Hell that is Iraq!?" The execution fell during Eid ul-Adha, a holy day for Muslims.
Law & Politics
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The date of the execution is perhaps one of the most compromising signals that the execution was indeed a psychological operation (PSYOP)
Several individuals say several times: "To Hell [hell-fire]!" [This can be translated as "Go to Hell!"]
Saddam Hussein mockingly replies/asks: "To the hell that is Iraq!?"
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@WHO Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 18 May 2021
Misc.
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Globally, in the past week, the number of new cases and deaths continued to decrease, although overall counts for both remained high with just over 4.8 million new cases and nearly 86 000 new deaths reported in the past week.
All regions reported a decline in new cases this week with the exception of the Western Pacific where the number of new cases were similar to the previous week.
The highest numbers of new cases were reported from
India (2 387 663 new cases; 13% decrease)
Brazil (437 076 new cases; 3% increase)
United States of America (235 638 new cases; 21% decrease)
Argentina (151 332 new cases; 8% increase)
Colombia (115 834 new cases; 6% increase)
Conclusions
The Invisible Microbe COVID19 posted two record high weeks of Infections and then declined -4% and -12% in the two following weeks
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09-MAY-2021 :: The Invisible Microbe COVID19 "My concern right now is that this virus has huge kinetic energy”, said @DrMikeRyan
Misc.
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Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases @OurWorldInData
Misc.
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28-MAR-2021 :: The Virus remains an exogenous uncertainty that is still not resolved #COVID19
Misc.
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"We are still in a perilous situation”, says @DrTedros @kakape
Misc.
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International Markets
World Of Finance
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.2197
Dollar Index 90.037
Japan Yen 108.995
Swiss Franc 0.9024
Pound 1.4135
Aussie 0.7756
India Rupee 73.1205
South Korea Won 1131.87
Brazil Real 5.31
Egypt Pound 15.6837
South Africa Rand 14.0744
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Dollar Index Chart INO 90.039
World Currencies
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Euro versus the Dollar Chart 1.2196
World Currencies
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Last 24 hrs, 775k+ traders had their account liquidated, equal to $8.6B worth of crypto - Bybt via @BChappatta @Convertbond
World Currencies
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*The sound of the little guy getting carted out. Fiscal stimmy checks incinerated. Watch for follow-on impact = U-6 unemployment % lower - employment to pop higher.
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So. Bitcoin fell 53% in five weeks, and then it rallied 35% in four hours. @johnauthers 40,600.00
World Currencies
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1st January 2021 BTC was ~28,300 it should start to get interesting for proxies & other risk assets below that. @sunchartist
World Currencies
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#Bitcoin Breaking $40,000 $BTC @CRYPTO 40,600.00
World Currencies
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The $40,000 mark is a “critical make-or-break pivot level” for Bitcoin and a decline to just below $30,000 isn’t out of the question, Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda, wrote in a note.
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Bitcoin Versus Gold #Bitcoin $BTC @CRYPTO
World Currencies
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The ratio of Bitcoin’s price relative to gold has dropped to the lowest since early February. That’s come amid greater caution about speculative assets as well as the post-pandemic economic recovery.
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I did kind of say Laser Eyes were not a good idea... was the interim top. Hubris never pays the bills. @RaoulGMI
World Of Finance
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#Bitcoin’s market value has now plunged by nearly 40% since the Laser Eyes meme campaign started. @CryptoWhale
World Currencies
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''Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro."
World Currencies
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GameKyuubi posted "I AM HODLING," a drunk, semi-coherent, typo-laden rant about his poor trading skills and determination to simply hold his bitcoin from that point on.
"I type d that tyitle twice because I knew it was wrong the first time. Still wrong. w/e," he wrote in reference to the now-famous misspelling of "holding."
"WHY AM I HOLDING? I'LL TELL YOU WHY," he continued.
"It's because I'm a bad trader and I KNOW I'M A BAD TRADER. Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro."
He concluded that the best course was to hold, since "You only sell in a bear market if you are a good day trader or an illusioned noob. The people inbetween hold. In a zero-sum game such as this, traders can only take your money if you sell."
He then confessed he'd had some whiskey and briefly mused about the spelling of whisk(e)y. [HODL Definition | Investopedia]
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Ho hum...Im now looking for cash in the sofa cushions to add. Feels awful out there, but this is the nature of a 65 vol + asset class. Quite the day... wonder if risk spills into other markets? @RaoulGMI
World Currencies
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Bought the dip, bought the next dip, bought the dips after that, then on the final dip, got liquidated by a margin call. @goldseek
World Currencies
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27 NOV 17 :: "Wow! What a Ride!"
World Currencies
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The parabola was described thus by Thomas Pynchon,
“But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably.It's The Parabola. They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe- that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’
Or as T.S Eliot said in The Hollow Men
Between the idea
And the reality
Between the motion
And the act
Falls the Shadow
For Thine is the Kingdom.
My investment thesis at the start of the year was that Bitcoin was going to get main-streamed in 2017. It has main-streamed beyond my wildest dreams, therefore, I am now sidelined.
Let me leave you with Hunter S. Thompson, “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming “Wow! What a Ride!”
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The story of Sir Isaac Newton and the South Sea Bubble.
World Of Finance
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Graham writes,
Back in the spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England.
Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that he ‘could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.’ Newton dumped his South Sea shares, pocketing a 100% profit totaling £7,000.
But just months later, swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price — and lost £20,000 (or more than $3 million in [2002-2003’s] money.
For the rest of his life, he forbade anyone to speak the words ‘South Sea’ in his presence.
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My current theory is elon is cursed to forever drop hints that prop up the price of doge because he’s in too deep and if he stops people will lose money and get mad at him @NeerajKA
Africa
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Tesla has ![]() ![]() @elonmusk
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Credit to our Master of Coin @elonmusk
World Currencies
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Elon controlling worldwide markets from his phone lmao @ThatNiggaEphy
World Currencies
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08-FEB-2021 :: The Markets Are Wilding
World Of Finance
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@elonmusk I am become meme, Destroyer of shorts And on February 4 He tested that hypothesis
No highs, no lows, only Doge @elonmusk Feb 4
Dogecoin is the people’s crypto @elonmusk Feb 4
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What's happening within the cryptocasino should come as no surprise. The inherent value of an asset class that is driven almost entirely by faith and greed is close to $0 @Mayhem4Market
World Currencies
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This is also why when psychology shifts, it shifts violently. Because there's no real valuation model.
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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04-JAN-2021 :: What Will Happen In 2021 I expect Gold to top $2,500 this year and Silver to reach $50.00
Commodities
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28-MAR-2021 :: GOLD HAS COMPLETED ITS CONSOLIDATION AND IS HEADED BACK TO ATHS
Commodities
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There is an almost perfect relationship between the price of #gold and the real bond #yield. ('yes', levels!) @jsblokland
Commodities
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09-MAY-2021 The Markets The Lotos-eaters Gold and Silver Have finally got the Big MO
Commodities
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$GOLD setting up for a potential golden cross on the weekly. (50MA crosses over 200MA) @ZachAttack0020
Commodities
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Gold 6 month INO 1874.00
Commodities
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Big turn in #oil markets. Brent climbed to $70 a barrel yesterday afternoon and now it's almost down to $65. @PaulWallace123 66.75
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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Lumber down 8 straight days @TheStalwart
Commodities
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Lumber bullish sentiment was 96% bulls - 6 days later it's 14% bulls with a 30% drop @TommyThornton
Commodities
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On a total return basis, Chinese debt has provided a 3.7% gain to dollar-based investors so far in 2021, second only to South Africa’s 7.5% among major emerging markets.
Emerging Markets
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In Asia, India has returned just 0.1% while Taiwan has seen a loss of 0.1%.
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WHO African Region .@WHO Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 18 May 2021
Africa
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The African Region reported over 40 000 new cases and over 900 new deaths, a 4% and a 9% decrease respectively compared to the previous week.
Case incidence continued to decrease for a fourth consecutive week while the number of deaths has reflected similar trends during this period.
The highest numbers of new cases were reported from
South Africa 16 326 new cases a 36% increase
Botswana 3745 new cases a 153% increase
Ethiopia 3615 new cases; a 13% decrease
Cases in South Africa comprised 41% of cases reported in the Region.
The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from
South Africa 459 new deaths a 44% increase
Kenya 118 new deaths a 15% decrease
Ethiopia 105 new deaths a 35% decrease
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One senses that the caretakers of coronavirus on the continent are very nervous. The Indian variant has a foothold. Might it scale? @Africa_Conf
Africa
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09-MAY-2021 Africa which as to date emerged relatively unscathed from the health element of COVID19 might be casting a weary glance over its shoulder at India and would certainly be prudent to do so.
Africa
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Drinking The Kool Aid
Africa
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''Viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics''
Africa
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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 95 days @ReutersGraphics
Africa
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Botswana at peak
Angola at 96%
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360,296 Active COVID-19 Cases in Africa @BeautifyData
Africa
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Active #Covid19 cases record 520,000 was in January 2021 @NKCAfrica
Africa
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South Africa reports 3,522 new confirmed cases of COVID. largest daily number since the second wave in January-February. daily positivity rate of 8.7% is also one of the highest since second wave. @geoffreyyork
Africa
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South Africa reports 3,522 new confirmed cases of COVID. That's the largest daily number since the second wave in January-February. The daily positivity rate of 8.7% is also one of the highest since the second wave.
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Malawi's AstraZeneca burn was quite the event. #Malawi #CovidVaccine @janeflan
Africa
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Abiy Ahmed Has Condemned Ethiopia to Dissolution @TheNatlInterest Michael Rubin H/T @KjetilTronvoll
Africa
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The war in Ethiopia’s Tigray Province is now more than six months old. Jeffrey Feltman, the Biden administration’s special envoy, has just completed his first trip to the region but, for Ethiopian unity, it may be too late.
Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has sent his country beyond the point of no return.
Abiy’s stated reason for his assault on Tigray was the rebuff of that province’s leaders to his efforts to delay elections.
His supporters justify his move to repress Tigray and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in two ways.
Some argue that the TPLF deserves the central government’s offensive and even the atrocities it suffers because of the TPLF’s past poor human rights abuses as well as its participation in the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, a coalition from which Abiy’s two immediate predecessors emerged.
Others argue that Ethiopia’s ethno-federalism is unfair to provincial minorities and Abiy is right to repress it. Both arguments are problematic:
TPLF’s past does not justify massacres, looting, and rape against civilians targeted solely because of ethnicity or political opposition.
If Abiy had legal justification against any particular TPLF leader, the courts would have been the proper recourse.
Critics of Ethiopian federalism have valid arguments about problems inherent in the system but the remedy for this is revision of the constitution through the legislative process, not the whims of one man acting through brute force.
Abiy promised a quick victory, but his gambit failed. While Ethiopian troops control the cities, videos show Tigray Defense Forces openly defiant and operating with impunity in the countryside.
Tigrayans, like much of the rest of Ethiopia, are overwhelmingly young. Most Tigrayans under thirty care little about Ethiopia as a whole and imagine a better life for themselves as their own independent state.
It was the senior TPLF leaders who had fought for, served Ethiopia, maintained links across regions, and remained open to unity. This was the caste whom Abiy has sought to kill.
In the most famous episode, the Ethiopian Army killed Seyoum Mesfin who had served two decades as Ethiopia’s foreign minister.
In effect, in a fit of pique, the mercurial Abiy has disproportionately targeted the only figures with whom he could negotiate to preserve Ethiopian unity.
He lacks candor and appears untethered from the reality that he has created. Many of his counterparts describe him as a naïf with a messiah complex.
While African leaders will not publicly abandon one of their own, the shedding of African Union offices from Ethiopia to other capitals reflects Abiy’s declining diplomatic capital.
Simply put, beyond Eritrean dictator Isaias Afwerki, who sees himself as Abiy’s superior, and Mohamed Farmaajo, Somalia’s president whose term expired three months ago, Abiy has no friends.
Regional states fear Ethiopia’s dissolution—it would be a nightmare scenario of dislocation and instability—but many diplomats, including those traditionally friendly to Ethiopia, quietly question whether it is already too late.
Abiy’s supporters may have justified his action in antipathy to federalism but by choosing unilateralism over negotiation, Abiy may have cemented his legacy not as a Nobel Peace Laureate, but rather as the man who ended a country whose history dates back millennia.
Conclusions
Its clear Prime Minister has no Agency in Tigray Province now.
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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa
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Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed
PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst
@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
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Or alternatively @TheEconomist whether @PMEthiopia can sustain an occupation given that one suspects there are equally restive regions
Africa
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Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer
Africa
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A fiendishly complicated task fending off the centrIfugal forces which are tearing Ethiopia apart @PMEthiopia has lost this battle
Africa
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‘The genie out of the bottle’ @AfricanBizMag
Africa
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A summit on financing Africa has concluded that wealthier nations should be persuaded to reallocate $100 billion in IMF reserves to African states. Matthew Larotonda @ReutersAfrica
Africa
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15-MAR-2021 :: Africa Emerging from The Pandemic
Africa
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Emmanuel Macron said a summit in Paris on Africa financing had agreed to work towards persuading rich nations by October to reallocate $100 billion in IMF special drawing rights monetary reserves to African states.
Africa
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Impoverished African economies must not be left behind in the post-pandemic economic recovery and a substantial financial package is needed to provide much-needed economic stimulus, African and European leaders concluded at a summit in Paris.
In the immediate term, that meant accelerating the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and creating the fiscal breathing room for African nations, which will face a spending shortfall of some $285 billion over the next two years, the summit communique showed.
The communique set out a two-pronged response based on addressing financing needs to support a sustainable, green recovery and the underpinning of private-sector-driven growth - but it was light on concrete commitments.
"This is a new start, a new deal for Africa," Senegalese President Macky Sall told reporters.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva said it was time to stem the "dangerous divergence between advanced economies and developing countries, especially (in) Africa."
Georgieva said the African continent's economic output would increase by only 3.2% in 2021, compared with 6% in the rest of the world.
Central to the talks was the question of how to reallocate IMF reserves (SDRs) that were earmarked for developed countries towards developing economies.
World finance chiefs agreed in April to boost SDRs by $650 billion and extend a debt-servicing freeze to help developing countries deal with the pandemic, although only $34 billion was to be allocated to Africa.
Macron said France had decided to redirect its SDRs and that there had been an accord to try to get rich nations by October to reallocate $100 billion to Africa.
"Our work in the next few weeks will be to make the same rate of effort as France, starting with the United States of America, and I know all the work that we will have to do with Congress and the executive, but I am confident," he told reporters.
Georgieva pledged to come up with a new allocation proposal by August.
"On the $100 billion, is it enough? Let's be very clear, no it is not enough. We have a financial gap just to catch up with the impact of COVID for the continent of Africa of $285 billion, she said. "It is genuinely an all-hands-on-deck situation."
"We have to make the private sector attracted to go into a risky environment by de-risking investments."
The summit was part of Macron's efforts to recast France's engagement in Africa, where it was once a colonial power, at a time when the continent faces a near $300 billion deficit by the end of 2023 while trying to recover from the downturn.
The African Development Bank forecasts that up to 39 million people could fall into poverty this year, with many African countries at risk of debt distress because of the pandemic.
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Emmanuel Macron listens to Senegal's President Macky Sall as he speaks during a joint news conference at the end of the Summit on the Financing of African Economies in Paris, Ludovic Marin/Pool via REUTERS
Africa
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Emmanuel Macron and his wife welcome Angolan President Joao Lourenco, accompanied by his wife Ana Dias Lourenco, for dinner with leaders of African states on eve of a summit on aid for Africa, at Elysee Palace REUTERS
Africa
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"Morocco uses migrants to get what it wants"
Africa
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When 6,000 people pushed off a Moroccan beachfront Monday, swam around two border walls and waded into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, the question was why Morocco’s normally aggressive border patrols had let them get that far.
The answer: It was a message. With Morocco, the European Union has made the same mistake it made with Turkey just five years ago.
It has granted massive leverage to an unpredictable partner by striking a deal in which Morocco receives assistance in exchange for preventing refugees from travelling into Europe.
That means when Spain does something Morocco doesn’t like, Rabat can play hardball by opening up its borders, however briefly.
Conclusions
#Ceuta, #Spain, is putting strain on relations between the two countries, as Madrid suspects it has to do with its welcoming of Polisario’s Brahim Ghali. @NKCAfrica
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España ante una nueva crisis migratoria por el conflicto diplomático con Marruecos @javifarri
Africa
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Turning To Africa
Africa
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We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point
“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming
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IMF member countries have agreed to clear Sudan's arrears to the institution, a final step towards accessing badly needed international finance and clearing its external debt @Reuters
Africa
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Instead of allowing people to commemorate those killed in the country’s revolution, #Sudan army blocked, opened fire on, and beat people. New from @HRW on May 11 events in Khartoum, #Sudan H/T @LaetitiaBader
Africa
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Sudan’s armed forces used excessive and lethal force against peaceful protesters gathered in Khartoum on May 11, 2021, to commemorate victims of a 2019 deadly crackdown, Human Rights Watch said today.
“Sudan’s army blocked, opened fire on, and beat people commemorating lives lost fighting for justice,” said Laetitia Bader, Horn of Africa director at Human Rights Watch.
“Once again in the new Sudan, security forces are resorting to abusive old tactics.”
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10-JUN-2019 :: The "zeitgeist" of the Revolution in Khartoum was intoxicating
Africa
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
Africa
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IND Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 14.0764
Africa
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar Chart INO 15.68
Africa
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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The India variant is lurking in Kisumu, medics there are already raising alarm that the hospitals are struggling with an increase in Covid19 cases. @DrMercyKorir
Africa
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MoH says KE will experience a 4th wave in June, but same Govt still wants to hold Madaraka Day celebrations in the lakeside city.
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From Vodacom annual report, the M-Pesa numbers in January to March 2021: @MwangoCapital
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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- Normalised M-Pesa revenue growth was 21.0% YoY
- M-Pesa transaction value growth of +34.5% YoY
- The M-Pesa ecosystem, including Safaricom, processed $24.5B a month in transactions, up 63.5% YoY.
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.@SafaricomPLC share price data
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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M-Pesa app (in test) will officially launch later this month with QR, wealth, chat, API functions. @bankelele
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
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Safaricom has no plans to spin-off the M-pesa service which it can grow outside Kenya through its JV with Vodacom. - Citi Research.
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@MoodysInvSvc has reaffirmed the B2 rating of @KeEquityBank @Coopbankenya & @KCBGroup with a -ve outlook on their long-term deposit & issuer ratings. @MwangoCapital
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
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This reflects their resilient capital levels & solid funding & liquidity profiles despite significant deterioration in asset quality.
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Africa
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We need capital market collaboration in EAC to develop scale. Kenya and Tanzania bourses are worth a combined $63B usd, which is 6 percent of JSE @NSE_PLC @KipronoKittony
N.S.E General
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
N.S.E General
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