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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 12th of May 2021

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09-MAY-2021 :: The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance

The Markets

The liquidity of this complex is illusory, as the reflexivity embedded within creates a lurking shadow convexity that is vulnerable to predatory flows. @FadingRallies 

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"While it's easy to laugh at Doge, one must recall - as Yuval Noah Harari taught us in Sapiens -- money has always been a meme from Day 1. What seems whacky and modern is a return to the traditions of the ancients" -- @_SidVerma @TheStalwart
World Of Finance

"While it's easy to laugh at Doge, one must recall - as Yuval Noah Harari taught us in Sapiens -- money has always been a meme from Day 1. What seems whacky and modern is a return to the traditions of the ancients" -- deep from @_SidVerma

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I have been reading Yuval Noah Harari and in his best-seller he says this about money;
World Of Finance

“Money is accordingly a system of mutual trust, and not just any system of mutual trust: money is the most universal and most efficient system of mutual trust ever devised.”

“Cowry shells and dollars have value only in our common imagination. Their worth is not inherent in the chemical structure of the shells and paper, or their colour, or their shape. In other words, money isn’t a material reality – it is a psychological construct. It works by converting matter into mind.”

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08-FEB-2021 :: The Markets Are Wilding
World Of Finance

@elonmusk I am become meme, Destroyer of shorts And on February 4 He tested that hypothesis

No highs, no lows, only Doge @elonmusk Feb 4

Dogecoin is the people’s crypto @elonmusk Feb 4

The top 100 dogecoin addresses own 67% of the total supply & a single digital wallet currently owns 28% of the cryptocurrency's entire supply. @NorthmanTrader 

Now imagine getting a cult celebrity to entice millions of retail buyers to chase a meme narrative pumping the positions of those 100 addresses who can then dump on said retail buyers. And imagine said celebrity being one of the 100. @NorthmanTrader

Nah, that could never happen. Could it?

Caveat Emptor

And VS Naipual delivered the most prescient warning in his book A Bend in the River

Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom. VS NAIPAUL

“The businessman bought at ten and was happy to get out at twelve; the mathematician saw his ten rise to eighteen, but didn’t sell because he wanted to double his ten to twenty.”

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09-MAY-2021 :: The Lotos-eaters


"Courage!" he said, and pointed toward the land, 

"This mounting wave will roll us shoreward soon." 

In the afternoon they came unto a land 

In which it seemed always afternoon. 

All round the coast the languid air did swoon, 

Breathing like one that hath a weary dream. 

Then some one said, "We will return no more"; 

And all at once they sang, "Our island home 

Is far beyond the wave; we will no longer roam." 


There is sweet music here that softer falls 

Than petals from blown roses on the grass, 

Or night-dews on still waters between walls 

Of shadowy granite, in a gleaming pass; 

Music that gentlier on the spirit lies, 

Than tir'd eyelids upon tir'd eyes; 

Music that brings sweet sleep down from the blissful skies. 

Here are cool mosses deep, 

And thro' the moss the ivies creep, 

And in the stream the long-leaved flowers weep, 

And from the craggy ledge the poppy hangs in sleep." 

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Beijing is ratcheting up the rhetoric. @davegreenidge57 @globaltimesnews

The one-China principle is the door for Taiwan. But "Taiwan independence" is a dead-end alley. 

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09-MAY-2021 :: Taiwan which I expect to be occupied by the Great Unifier before Year End
Law & Politics

The ''Political'' World

The '''Political'' World remains on a Knife edge but simultaneously vaudeville.

The ''bleeding Edge[s]'' are Taiwan which I expect to be occupied by the Great Unifier [“Complete reunification of the motherland is an inevitable trend. no one and no force can ever stop it!”] before Year End and that will mark a singular moment.

That big thing may be that he who rules Taiwan rules the world said the International Man of History Niall Ferguson and he is not wrong.

The US is resiling from its position to defend Taiwan [admittedly that position was always wrapped up in some ambiguity]

but My view is @JoeBiden has bailed on @iingwen and Xi knows it.

Of course The World in the 21st century exhibits viral, wildfire and exponential characteristics and feedback loops which only become obvious in hindsight but make no mistake Xi is to be taken at his word and his word is

“Unity is iron and steel; unity is a source of strength,”

And after rolling over Hong Kong and unleashing COVID19, his opinion of his adversaries I am sure is of the Paper Tiger Variety.

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War With China Over Taiwan Is Not A Fictional Worry @NoemaMag @stavridisj
Law & Politics

Similarly, we should bluntly communicate to China that an armed invasion is unacceptable and would provoke a significant diplomatic, economic — and possible military — response by the U.S.

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“Unity is iron and steel; unity is a source of strength,”
Law & Politics

“Complete reunification of the motherland is an inevitable trend..no one and no force can ever stop it!” 

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Xi has taken calculated risks. The muscular and multi-faceted nature of Chinese Power is seen in its handling of COVID19
Law & Politics

Controlling the COVID19 Narrative, suppressing the Enquiry, parlaying the situation into one of singular advantage marks a singular moment  

Xi Jinping has exhibited Chinese dominance over multiple theatres from the Home Front, the International Media Domain, the ‘’Scientific’’ domain over which he has achieved complete ownership and where any dissenting view is characterized as a ‘’conspiracy theory’’

It remains a remarkable achievement.

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Why is the universe so uncannily, so eerily, so terribly quiet? Because in the dark forest, anything that makes a sound gets eaten.

The alien researcher on the other side of the communication warns her that its society is utterly twisted and that she must never make contact again, lest they invade Earth:

Do not answer!

Do not answer!!

Do not answer!!!

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"The Dark Forest," which continues the story of the invasion of Earth by the ruthless and technologically superior Trisolarans, introduces Liu’s three axioms of “cosmic sociology.” @nfergus

First, “Survival is the primary need of civilization.” 

Second, “Civilization continuously grows and expands, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.” 

Third, “chains of suspicion” and the risk of a “technological explosion” in another civilization mean that in space there can only be the law of the jungle. 

In the words of the book’s hero, Luo Ji:

The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost ... trying to tread without sound ... 

The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. 

If he finds other life — another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod — 

there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. In this forest, hell is other people ... any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out.

This is intergalactic Darwinism.

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"Globally, we are now seeing a plateauing in the number of #COVID19 cases and deaths, with declines in most regions”, says @DrTedros at @WHO presser. @kakape

"But it’s an unacceptably high plateau, with more than 5.4 million reported #covid19 cases and almost 90.000 deaths last week."

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However, The Western World and China think they have the microbe licked with their Superpower Vaccine[s] See Eric Topol

Unlucky Worst pandemic in > 100 years
Lucky To have vaccines, developed and validated at unprecedented velocity, with extraordinary efficacy and safety, that are superior to our immune response to natural infection, and can protect against all variants to prevent serious illness

For the rest of the World and India in particular it remains the case of a a virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”

"My concern right now is that this virus has huge kinetic energy”, said @DrMikeRyan

Benito Modi whose hyper incompetence even the Die Hard BJP ''Deadenders'' are finding it impossible to defend positively aided and abetted the “Kumbh Mela [which] may end up being the biggest super spreader event in the history of this pandemic.” Professor Ashish Jha

It is clear daily COVID related deaths are running at 10x the Official number and each Funeral Pyre is a testament to the Prime Minister a testament to what You can decide.
I appreciate the Dollar is on the slide but I would venture shorting the Rupee is a No Brainer Trade at this juncture.
Whilst Topol and his ilk indulge in their vaccine Modi level Hubris let me point this out

This chart shows how quickly cases of each of the variants have increased from time of first detection in England. The rapidness of B.1.617.2 is evident. @chrischirp 
https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1390745901128368132? s=20

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett
It suggests a *whopping* 37% of sequenced cases in London might be B.1.617.2! @chrischirp 
https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1390745913476489218? s=20

we all know by now ''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics'

UK cases are now rising slowly, with smoothed cases higher than 4 days ago and one measure of R popping over 1.0. @video4me 

The cubic shows a clear rising trend - a few days earlier than @Forensic_Stats hypothesised from looking at B.1.617.

This might give The Winner of Hartlepool pause for thought because we all know now the microbe loathes hubris and visits its most violent revenge on those who express hubris.

Africa which as to date emerged relatively unscathed from the health element of COVID19 might be casting a weary glance over its shoulder at India and would certainly be prudent to do so.

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Based on the Indian GISAID data I get these multinomial fits, estimate a growth advantage of 10% of B.1.617.2 relative to B.1.1.7, a ~60% transmission advantage over B.1.1.7 with a generation time of 4.7 d. @TWenseleers

I think the data is quite conclusive now. Based on the Indian GISAID data I get these multinomial fits, which estimate a growth advantage of 10% of B.1.617.2 relative to B.1.1.7, which would translate to a ~60% transmission advantage over B.1.1.7 with a generation time of 4.7 d.

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SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617 emergence and sensitivity to vaccine-elicited antibodies H/T @fitterhappierAJ

The B.1.617 variant emerged in the Indian state of Maharashtra in late 2020 and has spread throughout India and to at least 40 countries. 

There have been fears that two key mutations seen in the receptor binding domain L452R and E484Q would have additive effects on evasion of neutralising antibodies. 

Here we delineate the phylogenetics of B.1.617 and spike mutation frequencies, in the context of others bearing L452R. 

The defining mutations in B.1.617.1 spike are L452R and E484Q in the RBD that interacts with ACE2 and is the target of neutralising antibodies. 

All B.1.617 viruses have the P681R mutation in the polybasic cleavage site region in spike. 

We report that B.1.617.1 spike bearing L452R, E484Q and P681R mediates entry into cells with slightly reduced efficiency compared to Wuhan-1. 

This spike confers modestly reduced sensitivity to BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine-elicited antibodies that is similar in magnitude to the loss of sensitivity conferred by L452R or E484Q alone. 

Furthermore we show that the P681R mutation significantly augments syncytium formation upon the B.1.617.1 spike protein, potentially contributing to increased pathogenesis observed in hamsters and infection growth rates observed in humans.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.2139

Dollar Index 90.27

Japan Yen 108.76

Swiss Franc 0.9048

Pound 1.4140

Aussie 0.7811

India Rupee 73.44

South Korea Won 1123.73

Brazil Real 5.2228

Egypt Pound 15.67

South Africa Rand 13.9995

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Are people returning to offices? You can now track sandwich sales data from Pret to get an idea. @business @nivie
Retail & Manufacturing

If sandwich sales are any guide, London’s bankers, corporate lawyers and asset managers are taking their time returning to offices even as the pandemic eases across the U.K.

That’s shown in data from Pret A Manger Ltd., the restaurant chain that typically sold about 200,000 lattes and 100,000 croissants a week to Britain’s office workers, shoppers and commuters before Covid struck. 

Pret is providing weekly data to Bloomberg about its transaction volume across the country to provide one look at how the U.K. is getting back to normal.

In a geographical cluster that includes the City and Canary Wharf, London’s two major financial districts, business remains relatively slow. 

Although some employers are encouraging workers to return, official U.K. government guidance is that those who can work from home should do so until June.

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Inside Pictet, the Secretive Swiss Bank for the World’s Richest People @business
World Of Finance

In the mythology of private banking, Banque Pictet & Cie SA stands apart. 

Over the course of more than two centuries, the Swiss institution has discreetly tended to the assets of the very rich, led by a small crop of partners who form the most exclusive men-only club anywhere outside the Vatican.

In its entire history, only 43 individuals — all men, all white — have risen to the rank of Pictet managing partner, creating a bond more enduring than your typical marriage. 

From their Geneva perch, they oversee more than 600 billion francs ($662 billion) in assets under management and a level of profitability far beyond larger, publicly-listed peers, often rewarding each of them with more than 20 million francs a year.   

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The Markets The Lotos-eaters
World Of Finance

In 1929, President Herbert Hoover assured the country that things were already “back to normal,” Liaquat Ahamed writes in Lords of Finance.

The US NFP printed 266,000 versus 1,000,000 expected which was the biggest miss relative to expectations in Non Farm Payrolls since at least 1998. @bespokeinvest

On 28th March when the Bears had gotten hold of the US 10 Year, I wrote that I expected the 10 Year to target 1.45% well we got real close on Friday before the market reversed 

Ten- year yields initially plunged to a more than two-month low of 1.46%, then reversed to end the day at 1.58%. However, I am resetting my target Yield to 1.25% now.

Given the volume of money Printing and the extraordinary stimulusI have to say that the US Recovery is actually really weak and I believe it will be very short lived and the Penny will drop soon with the Bond Market and the Shorts will be forced to cover.

The Consensus View appears to be that the Global economy is going to accelerate big time and that its going to BOOM! 

I beg to differ

Partying responsibly. @BobNeiwen

Furthermore The Central Banks are in a corner. 

They have fired a lot of bullets and even if there was a meaningful bounce they cannot raise rates.

Here is why central banks are trapped and cannot raise rates even if inflation rises: @dlacalle_IA Feb 2 

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Silver is the single most important asset that I’m focused on. @TaviCosta 

If I had to boil down my entire macro thesis into one position, it would undoubtedly be that.

Once silver breaks above $30, I believe we will see an explosive move to new highs.

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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 92 days @ReutersGraphics

Réunion reports its largest number of new COVID-19 infections since the start of the pandemic: 1,100

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09-MAY-2021 :: The Invisible Microbe COVID19

For the rest of the World and India in particular it remains the case of a a virulent plague that “travelled through the air as if on wings, it burned through cities like fire”
"My concern right now is that this virus has huge kinetic energy”, said @DrMikeRyan
Africa which as to date emerged relatively unscathed from the health element of COVID19 might be casting a weary glance over its shoulder at India and would certainly be prudent to do so.

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Seychelles, which has vaccinated more of its population against Covid-19 than any other country, saw active cases more than double in the week to May 7, @business.

The Health Ministry of the archipelago off of Africa’s east coast said Monday that the number of active cases had more than doubled since last week to 2,486 people, and 37% of those have received two vaccine doses. 

Cases are also surging in the Maldives, another Indian Ocean island nation that’s a popular tourism destination.

In Seychelles, Sinopharm shots were issued to 57% of those who were fully inoculated and the rest with Covishield, a vaccine made in India under a license from AstraZeneca Plc. 

As of May 8 no one who had contracted Covid while being vaccinated had died, Seychelles News Agency reported, citing the minister for foreign affairs and tourism.

The Seychelles, a group of palm-fringed tropical islands, last week re-imposed curbs including closing schools, canceling sports events and banning mingling of households.

Cases in the Maldives, which has seen a surge in visits from affluent Indians, have also shot up. 

The country has the most new cases per 100,000 people in the past five, seven and 14 days. Active cases jumped from 4,978 to 9,423 on May 9.

As of May 8, over 300,000 people in the Maldives had received at least one dose of a vaccine and 35% of the population had received two, according to the Health Protection Agency. 

The country has been using Sinopharm and Covishield.

Positive test results in Greater Male, the area in and around the capital of the Maldives, are about 60% of the total. 

As of May 7 the government closed gyms and cinemas and imposed a curfew from 9 p.m. until 4 a.m, the agency said.

The government is also now requiring that arrivals to the islands, including those who have been vaccinated, have a negative Covid-19 test administered four days before their departure.

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COVID-19 infections in Seychelles are at their peak — the highest daily average reported — now at 257 new infections reported each day. @ReutersGraphics

There have been 8,172 infections and 28 coronavirus-related deaths reported in the country since the pandemic began.

Seychelles has administered at least 127,721 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 65.4% of the country’s population.

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Eritrean troops disguised as Ethiopian military are blocking critical aid in Tigray @CNN H/T @addisstandard

Axum, Ethiopia — Eritrean troops are operating with total impunity in Ethiopia's war-torn northern Tigray region, killing, raping and blocking humanitarian aid to starving populations more than a month after the country's Nobel Peace Prize winning leader pledged to the international community that they would leave.

A CNN team traveling through Tigray's central zone witnessed Eritrean soldiers, some disguising themselves in old Ethiopian military uniforms, manning checkpoints, obstructing and occupying critical aid routes, roaming the halls of one of the region's few operating hospitals and threatening medical staff.

Despite pressure from the Biden administration, there is no sign that Eritrean forces plan to exit the border region anytime soon.

Ethiopian security officials working with Tigray's interim administration told CNN that the Ethiopian government has no control over Eritrean soldiers operating in Ethiopia, and that Eritrean forces had blocked roads into central Tigray for over two weeks and in the northwestern part of the region for nearly one month.

Eritrean soldiers are disguising their identities by re-uniforming as Ethiopian military, in what Thomas-Greenfield described as a move to "remain in Tigray indefinitely."


Its clear Prime Minister has no Agency in Tigray Province now.

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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

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Turning To Africa

We are getting closer and closer to the Virilian Tipping Point

“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''

Political leadership in most cases completely gerontocratic will use violence to cling onto Power but any Early Warning System would be warning a Tsunami is coming

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.@Uber Technologies Inc. has raised fares in Nigeria and Kenya in response to demand by drivers for higher share of commissions to compensate for increased cost of operations @technology

The ride-hailing firm raised prices on its UberX platform by 13% in Africa’s biggest city, Lagos, and 20% in Abuja, the Nigerian capital, Lorraine Onduru spokesperson for Uber East and West Africa said in response to questions.

In Kenya, it added 15% on its motorcycle-ride and delivery services, while riders on low-cost ChapChap will pay additional 3 Kenyan shillings per kilometer.

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Sasini Tea and Coffee reports H1 Earnings here
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Par Value:                  1/-

Closing Price:           18.85

Total Shares Issued:          228055504.00

Market Capitalization:        4,298,846,250

EPS:             0.07

PE:                 269.286

Sasini Half year Results through 31st March 2021 

HY Revenue 2.024023b versus 2.070189b

HY Results from Operating Activities 177.890m versus [7.325m]

HY Finance Income 30.664m versus 8.800m 

HY Profit before Income Tax 191.861m versus [10.140m]

HY Profit After Tax 122.207m versus [13.074m]

HY EPS 0.52 versus [0.07]

Interim Dividend of 50cents a share


Results were buoyed by the improved coffee prices, good weather conditions and cost containment measures.

Late start of avocado season

impact of mechanization of tea harvesting continues to be a key driver in the cost containment measures

Low Tea prices realised in the period 

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.@Kenya_Re share price data here
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Price: 2.42

Market Capitalization: 6,775,506,978

EPS: 0.6375

PE:  3.796

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.@WPPScangroup share price data here
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Price: 5.66

Market Capitalization: 2,446,002,875


PE: 4.131

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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May 2021

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