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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 01st of February 2021
 
Morning
Africa



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It’s a little counterintuitive given the $GME saga which is a short squeeze notwithstanding a legitimate Trading strategy but not based on fundamentals
World Of Finance


Gold and #silvershortsqueeze is about sound “money” in a world of rampant and hocus pocus voodoo money printing Kudos Redditeers

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04-JAN-2021 :: What Will Happen In 2021
World Of Finance


My Top Trades are Gold and Silver. I expect Gold to top $2,500 this year and Silver to reach $50.00

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Myanmar's military stages a coup, detaining de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi and declaring it has taken control of the country for one year under a state of emergency @AFP
Law & Politics



Myanmar's military staged a coup on Monday, detaining democratically elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi and declaring it had taken control of the country for one year under a state of emergency.

The intervention followed weeks of rising tensions between the military, which ruled the country for nearly five decades, and the civilian government over elections in November last year that Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party won easily.

Suu Kyi and President Win Myint were detained in the capital, Naypyidaw, before dawn, party spokesman Myo Nyunt told AFP, just hours before parliament was meant to reconvene for the first time since the elections.

"We heard they were taken by the military... with the situation we see happening now, we have to assume that the military is staging a coup," he said.

The military then declared, via its own television channel, a one-year state of emergency and announced that former general Myint Swe would be acting president for the next year.

It justified the coup by alleging "huge irregularities" in the November polls that the election commission had failed to address.

"As the situation must be resolved according to the law, a state of emergency is declared," the announcement said.

The military moved quickly to stifle dissent, severely restricting the internet and mobile phone communications across the country.

In Yangon, the former capital that remains Myanmar's commercial hub, troops seized the city hall just ahead of the announcement, according to an AFP journalist.

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Ghana 629 avg #COVID19 cases/day up 190% past 2wks. @jmlukens
Africa



Countries with high COVID-19 2wk avg case/day increase

#Cameroon: 229%

#Thailand: 198%

#Ghana: 190%

#Rwanda: 94%

#Malawi: 71%

#Kazakhstan: 69%

#SaudiArabia: 51%

#Qatar: 48%

#Portugal: 45%

#Cuba: 44%

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They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.
Misc.



In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.


A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions


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Spain 513 #COVID19 deaths yesterday above accelerating 411/day avg up 100% past 2wks. @jmlukens
Misc.



Countries with high COVID-19 2wk avg deaths/day increase

#Malawi: 139%

#Ecuador: 122%

#Portugal: 106%

#Peru: 100%

#Spain: 100%

#Lebanon: 85%

#Sudan: 81%

#Bolivia: 68%

#Ireland: 65%

#Israel: 38%

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Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence
Misc.



Three recently detected SARS-CoV-2 lineages (B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1), are unusually divergent and each possesses a unique constellation of mutations of potential biological importance.16,  17,  18 

Of these, two are circulating in Brazil (B.1.1.7 and P.1) and one (P.1) was detected in Manaus on Jan 12, 2021.16 

One case of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection has been associated with the P.1 lineage in Manaus19 that accrued ten unique spike protein mutations, including E484K and N501K.16 

Moreover, the newly classified P.2 lineage (sublineage of B.1.128 that independently accrued the spike E484K mutation) has now been detected in several locations in Brazil, including Manaus.20 

P.2 variants with the E484K mutation have been detected in two people who have been reinfected with SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil,21,  22 

and there is in-vitro evidence that the presence of the E484K mutation reduces neutralisation by polyclonal antibodies in convalescent sera.15

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“Whether people who have been vaccinated get infected with the variant — that’s the real proof in the pudding,” said Dr. Otto Yang, an infectious-disease researcher at UCLA. @YahooNews
Misc.



“If you think you’re going to simply vaccinate your way out of this, it’s going to be like whack-a-mole,” said Susan Butler-Wu, director of clinical microbiology at L.A. County-USC Medical Center.

“We’re shining a flashlight around in the dark, hoping we spot dangerous variants,” said Anne Rimoin, an epidemiologist at UCLA. “What we really need to do is flip on the lights.”

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The IMF’s Economic Crystal Ball Is Broken Desmond Lachman @TheNatlInterest
World Of Finance



In revising up its world economic growth forecast to 4.3 percent for 2021, the IMF appears to be overly sanguine about the substantial downside risks to its forecast. 

Indeed, the only real downside risk that it highlights is the current race between the Covid-19 vaccinations and the Covid-19 mutations. 

The IMF acknowledges that should the mutations win that race, there could be considerable downside risk to its forecast.

Among the more obvious downside risks that the IMF fails to mention is the risk of a major debt crisis in the emerging market economies, which now account for around half of the world economy. 

This omission is all the more surprising considering that, in the wake of the pandemic, these countries’ public finances and debt levels have never been as troubling than they are today. 

It is also all the more surprising considering that the World Bank keeps warning us that it is only a matter of time before we will have a major wave of emerging market debt restructurings.  

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.2128

Dollar Index 90.531

Japan Yen 104.663

Swiss Franc 0.8918

Pound 1.3746

Aussie 0.7655

India Rupee 72.83

South Korea Won 1116.145

Brazil Real 5.4623

Egypt Pound 15.7186

South Africa Rand 15.11032

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CoViD19-ΛFЯICΛ: Confirmed: 3 552 387 (+ 17924) Actives: 424 934 (-1838) @NCoVAfrica
Africa



Confirmed: 3 552 387 (+ 17924)

Actives: 424 934 (-1838)

Deaths: 90 461 (+ 611)

Recoveries: 3 034 550 (+19151)




Actives -18.28% below record high Print of 520,000

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Update: #COVID19 in South Africa 30 January '21 • New cases = 5 297 • Test positivity = 12.8% • Active cases = 112 364 @rid1tweets
Africa



• New cases = 5 297

• New tests = 41 540

• Test positivity = 12.8% 

• New deaths = 318

• Active cases = 112 364

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They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.
Africa



In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.


A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions


read more






The Zimbabwe Event @EpsilonTheory
Africa



Over the past two weeks, three senior Cabinet officials in Zimbabwe (including the Foreign Minister and the Infrastructure Minister) have died from Covid. Not gotten sick. Died.
 

More broadly, reported Covid cases and deaths have exploded in this country of 15 million just in the month of January. 

The unreported numbers are certainly much higher, as about 90% of Zimbabwe’s population works outside of the formal economy, and the majority of Zimbabweans have little to no access to the healthcare facilities that report these official case and death numbers.

The societal unraveling that is taking place in Zimbabwe – a desperately poor country where per capita GDP is less than $1,500 and declining – is staggering.


Two days ago, the government’s Information Minister tweeted that his fellow Cabinet members had been “eliminated” and called the nation’s doctors “medical assassins”. 

He deleted the tweets yesterday and apologized “if anyone was offended”. 

Nurses at a major hospital in the capital city of Harare are on strike because they are provided a single cloth mask and bakery aprons as PPE. 

The Defense Minister has accused China of “botched experiments” that brought Covid to Zimbabwe, and has said that she will only accept a vaccine if it is manufactured locally. 

Today, the government announced that it “plans to buy” cheapo Chinese and Russian vaccines, but can only afford to cover two-thirds of the country’s population. 

The Harare elite have taken to hoarding – not food, but oxygen– to the point where hospitals are placing newspaper ads promising to pay top dollar for any remaining supply.

This is the ‘Zimbabwe Event’, and I believe it has significant real-world and market-world consequences.

Like the ‘Ireland Event’ I’ve been writing about recently, what is happening in Zimbabwe (and every country in Southern Africa) is driven by a combination of relaxed social mitigation policies AND the introduction of a more infectious SARS-CoV-2 virus variant.

What is different is that Zimbabwe is a “weak state”, not a strong, stable state like Ireland.

What is different is that Zimbabwe is being hit by the South African-variant (501.V2), not the UK-variant virus (B117). 

The stress of the Covid pandemic is enormous in ALL countries, and it is stress at EVERY stratum of society. The poor are dying. The middle class is dying and getting poorer. 

The elite are not dying quite as much, but they’re not getting richer and the difference in outcomes between some elites and other elites is enormous.


This broad societal stress results in popular discontent and elite conflict in every country on Earth.

Rich country or poor country, weak state or strong state, big nation or small nation … doesn’t matter. 

ALL nations are experiencing much higher levels of popular discontent and elite conflict today, which means that ALL governments are experiencing much higher pressure for regime change and leadership transitions.

In a strong state – meaning a nation that has the institutions, traditions, narrative legitimacy and state-supporting common knowledge to accommodate a peaceful leadership transition even under times of intense stress – you can survive a Covid Event without violent regime change.

In a weak state – meaning a nation that does NOT have the institutions, traditions, narrative legitimacy and state-supporting common knowledge to accommodate a peaceful leadership transition under times of intense stress – you cannot.

Weak states do not have an effective political steam valve for popular discontent and elite conflict, resulting in war and violent regime change when a Covid Event hits.

The United States is a strong state. It is, arguably, the strongest state in the world, with an institutional legitimacy and broad-based popular loyalty to those core institutions that has few peers. 

The United States has many political steam valves for the expression of popular discontent and elite conflict.

If the events of January 6th and the storming of the Capitol can happen in the United States, can you imagine what’s possible in Harare? In Tehran? In Moscow?

In a desperately poor country like Zimbabwe – and there are a lot of Zimbabwes in the world – the violence of popular discontent and elite conflict is obvious enough. 

When the core functions of a domestic government effectively collapse, civilian life in these circumstances quickly becomes, as Hobbes would say, nasty, brutish and short. 

The outcome of these circumstances is ALWAYS war. First a war of all against all, then a war of organized factions, then (often) a war of nations. 

Some of these wars in the Zimbabwes of the world will be entirely internal to existing borders. Some of these wars will cross those borders. Some of these wars will include major powers. 

I think 2021 will be a Year of Civil War in weak states that are desperately poor.

The market couldn’t care less about that, of course, whatever the human enormity of this violence might be.

But the dynamics I’m describing are not only true for an insanely poor weak state like Zimbabwe, but are also true for a relatively wealthy weak state like South Africa. Or Iran. Or Russia.


If you don’t see that the Navalny protests and the growing popular discontent with Putin and his billion dollar palace and all that is both made possible and accelerated by the enormous stress that Covid has placed on the Russian economy and public health … well, I think you’re missing the larger picture here. 

By the same token, I also think it’s clear that there is real and significant elite conflict behind the protests you see on TV, similarly stemming from that stress on the Russian economy. 

Clausewitz famously said that war is the continuation of politics by other means. In weak states, though, the reverse is also true: politics is the continuation of war by other means

Right now, Russia is a political war of all against all. Can Putin survive this political war? Sure. But if he does, it won’t be pretty. My bet is that he “retires for health reasons”.


I could absolutely see the same thing happening with Khamenei in Iran. Or MBS in Saudi Arabia.

I think 2021 will be a Year of Unexpected Regime Change in weak states that are relatively wealthy.

The market will care about this a great deal.



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Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah
Misc.



Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...” 

Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”. 

States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

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Will they have that moment of Epiphany?
Africa




I would argue that Civil unrest levels are now globally at unprecedented levels that COVID19 was a circuit breaker and that ‘’Risk’’ is now blinking amber and that there remains a remarkable complacency around this risk which Paul Virilio described thus

Paul Virilio pronounced in his book Speed and Politics


“The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in other words, a producer of speed.’

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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa



Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

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The fugitive leader of Ethiopia’s defiant Tigray region on Monday called on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to “stop the madness” and withdraw troops
Africa


The fight is about self-determination of the region of around 6 million people, the Tigray leader said, and it “will continue until the invaders are out.” 

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Zambia skipped a $56.1 million coupon payment on Jan. 30 on its Eurobond maturing in 2027, the Finance Ministry confirmed on Sunday @markets
Africa






Zambia skipped a $56.1 million coupon payment on Jan. 30 on its Eurobond maturing in 2027, the Finance Ministry confirmed Sunday.

The southern African nation became Africa’s first pandemic-era sovereign to default after it missed a $42.5 million Eurobond coupon payment in November.

Zambia warned in October that it wouldn’t be able to meet obligations on foreign commercial debt unless creditors provided it with relief while the government worked to restructure its loans.


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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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