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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 02nd of February 2021
 
Afternoon
Africa



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04-JAN-2021 :: What Will Happen In 2021
World Of Finance


My Top Trades are Gold and Silver. I expect Gold to top $2,500 this year and Silver to reach $50.00

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The military ruled directly for nearly 50 years after a 1962 coup and had long seen itself as the guardian of national unity.
Law & Politics



As the architect of Myanmar’s 2008 constitution, the military enshrined a permanent role for itself in the political system. 

It gets an unelected quota of 25% of parliamentary seats and its chief appoints ministers of defence, interior and border affairs, ensuring a key stake in politics, which has made for an awkward power-sharing arrangement with the NLD.

“He was a man of few words and normally kept a low profile,” one classmate told Reuters in 2016.

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States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
Law & Politics


Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah
Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”
Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.
States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”

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They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.
Misc.



In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.


A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions


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Portugal reported close to half of all its COVID-19 deaths in January @Reuters
Misc.



Hospitals across the nation of just over 10 million appear on the verge of collapse, with ambulances queuing sometimes for hours for lack of beds and some health units struggling to find enough refrigerated space to preserve bodies.

Officials have blamed the huge increase in the infection and death rates on the more contagious British variant of the disease, and also acknowledged that a relaxation of restrictions on social contact over the Christmas holidays played a role.

In January, a total of 5,576 people died from the coronavirus, representing 44.7% of all 12,482 fatalities since the virus started to spread in the Iberian country in March last year, data from health authority DGS showed.

The association representing funeral homes warned that public hospitals were running out of refrigerated space to preserve bodies of COVI-19 victims, and some, including Portugal’s largest hospital Santa Maria, have installed extra cold containers to ease pressure on their morgues.

A total of 711,018 infections have been reported since March 2020, with 43% of those infections in January, according to DGS.

Portugal has the world’s highest seven-day rolling average of new daily cases per million inhabitants, according to data tracker ourworldindata.org

With a total of 858 people with COVID-19 in intensive care units and 6,694 in hospital wards, 

Portuguese hospitals are running out of beds and there is a shortage of doctors and nurses.

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The new Brazilian variant of COVID-19 is already present in 91 percent of COVID-19 cases analyzed in the state of Amazonas
Misc.



In December, the one named “P.1” was detected in 51 percent of the samples analyzed in the laboratories and in the first half of January that percentage jumped substantially to 91 percent, which confirms that it has been become the predominant lineage in Amazon.

In this sense, the fact that it shares mutations with the variants originating in the United Kingdom and South Africa, and that it has been found more frequently in genetic studies, suggests that it is “more transmissible”, according to Felipe Naveca , a researcher at the Leônidas Institute. & María Deane, linked to Fiocruz

.

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Horizontal gene transfer and recombination analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genes helps discover its close relatives and shed light on its origin
Misc.


The results of our horizontal gene transfer and recombination analysis suggest that SARS-CoV-2 could not only be a chimera virus resulting from recombination of the bat RaTG13 and Guangdong pangolin coronaviruses but also a close relative of the bat CoV ZC45 and ZXC21 strains. They also indicate that a GD pangolin may be an intermediate host of this dangerous virus. 

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SimPlot similarity analysis
Misc.



Our SimPlot analysis (Fig. 1a) conducted with 25 CoV genomes (see the ‘Methods’ section for a detailed data description) shows that the Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13 genomes share 96.14% of whole-genome identity, while the Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 and GD Pangolin genomes are 90.34% identical. 

The RaTG13 and GD Pangolin CoV genomes are by far the closest ones to the SARS-CoV-2 genome. 

For example, only 85.43% of whole-genome identity is shared between the Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 and GX Pangolin CoV genomes. 

Given such a close resemblance between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13, bat is a likely reservoir of origin for SARS-CoV-2, as was the case during previous CoV outbreaks.

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There is no natural Pathway for the Evolution of COVID19.
Misc.



Today only the Paid for Propagandists and Virologists and WHO will argue that there is a ''zoonotic'' origin for COVID19. 

It is remarkable that the Propaganda is still being propagated more than a year later. 

There is no natural Pathway for the Evolution of COVID19.

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Gene-by-gene SimPlot similarity analysis performed to compare gene sequences of the Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 2020 reference genome with those of the RatTG13 genome (green), GD Pangolin CoV consensus genome (red) and Bat CoVZ consensus genome (violet)
Misc.


Gene-by-gene SimPlot similarity analysis performed to compare gene sequences of the Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 2020 reference genome with those of the RatTG13 genome (green), GD Pangolin CoV consensus genome (red) and Bat CoVZ consensus genome (violet). Similarity plots are presented for genes ORF1ab, S, ORF3a, M, ORF7a and N that encompass the most important overlaps between the RaTG13, GD Pangolin CoV and Bat CoVZ similarity curves

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.2067

Dollar Index 90.966

Japan Yen 104.944

Swiss Franc 0.8973

Pound 1.3685

Aussie 0.7613

India Rupee 72.9615

South Korea Won 1117.80

Brazil Real 5.4326

Egypt Pound 15.735

South Africa Rand 14.97765

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Denmark suspends flights from Dubai amid doubts over virus tests @AP
Emerging Markets



Denmark has temporarily suspended all flights from the United Arab Emirates for five days after suspicion arose the coronavirus tests that can be obtained before leaving Dubai are not reliable, authorities announced Friday.


Danish authorities faced a “concrete and serious citizen inquiry into" how the tests are carried out at Dubai entry and exit points, he said, and "therefore we need to be absolutely sure that there are no problems."

Engelbrecht said at least "one citizen" brought the South African variant of the virus "back from Dubai." 

He did not identify the person. Dubai has seen an increase in the number of South African residents as the latter country's economy deteriorated in recent years

On Friday, as the UAE shattered its 11th consecutive daily infection record with 3,552 new cases, Dubai's state-run media office announced strict new limits on weddings, social events, and private parties beginning next Wednesday, restricting all gatherings to 10 immediate family members. 

Wedding parties at hotels and other venues previously had been capped at 200.


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CoViD19-ΛFЯICΛ: Confirmed: 3 568 220 (+ 15833) Actives: 421 640 (-3294) @NCoVAfrica
Africa



Confirmed: 3 568 220 (+ 15833)

Actives: 421 640 (-3294)

Deaths: 90 990 (+ 529)

Recoveries: 3 053 148 (+ 18598)

Conclusions

Active Cases 18.91% below record high Print in January 2021 




active #Covid19 cases record 520,000 was in January 2021 @NKCAfrica



According to @NCoVAfrica [1st wave] Peak Daily Infections was 24th July 2020 and 20,873




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Update: #COVID19 in #SouthAfrica 1 February '21 • New cases = 2 548 • Test positivity = 11.8% • Active cases = 105 888 @rid1tweets
Africa



• New cases = 2 548

• New tests = 21 549

• Test positivity = 11.8% 

• New deaths = 235

• Active cases = 105 888

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South Africa is loosening its lockdown regulations after a steady decline in new cases and hospitalizations. Curfew pushed back to 11 pm. Beaches to be reopened. Alcohol sales ban to be eased @geoffreyyork
Africa



South Africa is loosening its lockdown regulations after a steady decline in new cases and hospitalizations. Curfew pushed back to 11 pm. (Establishments must close by 10 pm.) Beaches to be reopened. Alcohol sales ban to be eased (Mon to Thurs sales, for off-site consumption).



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They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.
Africa





In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.


A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.

But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions





"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett



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UPDATE 2-Ethiopia's debt relief request to put other DSSI nations under scrutiny - @MorganStanley @Reuters
Africa



LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Ethiopia’s request for debt relief in recent days is likely to put other poor countries also eligible for the G20’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) under bond market pressure, Morgan Stanley analysts said on Monday.

Ethiopia has said it plans to seek a restructuring of its sovereign debt under a new common framework of the G20 group of major economies designed to help with the financial pressures of COVID-19, and is examining all options.

The news pushed its government bonds to their biggest daily fall on Friday amid worries that private sector holders will be forced to take a writedown and also trigger a default in the eyes of the main credit rating agencies.

“G20 DSSI-eligible sovereigns and those requesting IMF programmes may come under additional scrutiny following Ethiopia’s request for debt relief,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note to clients.

“The key issue would be how insistent bilateral creditors would be on the private sector participating. A potentially tougher stance by the bilateral sector could weigh on emerging market high yield (countries with weaker credit ratings).”

In all, 73 countries here are eligible for a temporary suspension of debt service payments owed to their official bilateral creditors. So far, around 40 have requested to benefit.

The G20 has also called on private creditors such as investment funds to participate in the initiative on comparable terms. The suspension period, originally set to end on Dec. 31, 2020, now runs until June and could be extended further.

Morgan Stanley said it was putting the DSSI countries in focus and other low-rated countries into three main groups.

The first includes those that still have manageable debt levels, access to borrowing markets or can tap existing International Monetary Fund programmes such as Egypt, Jordan, Nigeria, Ivory Coast and Senegal.

A second category where fiscal finances are worsening - requiring either an “extremely supportive” external backdrop or new IMF support to get through - includes Pakistan, Cameroon Kenya, Costa Rica and recently defaulted Argentina and Ecuador.

Cameroon’s bonds seemed particularly spooked, suffering their biggest drop on Monday since March’s initial global rout.

The final group has those currently in default such as Zambia and Lebanon as well as those seen as at risk for a while such as Sri Lanka, which faces a $1 billion redemption in July followed by $500 million-$1 billion ones every 6-9 months thereafter.

Tunisia was also now in that category with ongoing protests now making budget savings even more difficult, along with heavily indebted Mozambique and Congo, and finally Laos and Maldives where COVID-19 has hammered their tourism sectors.

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Turning to Africa the Spinning Top
Africa




The real challenge is the Economic Emergency.

The latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa projects economic activity in the region to decline by 3.0% in 2020 and recover by 3.1% in 2021. @IMFNews

The IMF is so bright eyed and bushy tailed and I want some of whatever Pills they are popping.


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Comparison between #Kenya & #Ethiopia eurobond due 2024 telling a story. @emsovdebt
Africa


Yields recovered from pandemic market freeze in Mar-May 2020. Conflict led to spike for Ethiopia in Nov-20 & now news of joining common framework for debt workout has fuelled fear bond investors take haircu

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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa



Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed

PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst

@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.

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Yields on Ethiopia’s $1 billion of 2024 Eurobonds climbed 26 basis points to 8.85% by 1:50 p.m. in London after jumping 207 points on Friday to the highest since May @markets
Africa



Ethiopia may approach private creditors for debt talks after it reviews liabilities with official lenders, amid security risks that are adding to investors’ worries

Yields on Ethiopia’s $1 billion of 2024 Eurobonds climbed 26 basis points to 8.85% by 1:50 p.m. in London after jumping 207 points on Friday to the highest since May. 

The premium investors demand to hold the nation’s dollar bonds rather than U.S. Treasuries widened 31 basis points to 807, compared with the 538 average for African sovereign issuers, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes.

As with earlier bilateral debt relief, including via the Paris Club, Eurobond holders can choose not to participate in the program, according to the Morgan Stanley analysts. 

“The key issue would be how insistent bilateral creditors would be on the private sector participating,” they said.

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"The final export figures are in, we can announce a record-breaking 2020 export season that delivered 146 million cartons of South African citrus to the rest of the world." -- @justchad_cga @WandileSihlobo
Africa


"In March 2020, we predicted a bumper citrus export volume of 143 million cartons. Now that the final export figures are in, we can announce a record-breaking 2020 export season that delivered 146 million cartons of South African citrus to the rest of the world." -- @justchad_cga

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In a categorisation of DSSI countries, Morgan Stanley has put Kenya in the same category as recently defaulted Argentina. @MihrThakar
Kenyan Economy


"..fiscal finances are worsening - requiring either an "extremely supportive" external backdrop or new IMF support to get through.." Source: Reuters

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Kenyan Flower Growers Need Freight for Valentine’s Day @markets @herbling
Kenyan Economy



Reduced air-freight capacity and lockdowns in key European markets threaten to hurt Kenyan flower sales for Valentine’s Day.

Kenya’s flower producers are receiving orders for Feb. 14, but freight capacity is “our biggest worry,” Clement Tulezi, chief executive of the Kenya Flower Council, said on Monday

Freight demand typically doubles to 5,500 tons in the week before Valentine’s Day, requiring an additional weekly shipping capacity of 3,000 tons, he said.

The East African nation exports about 70% of its flowers via Amsterdam, and restrictions in the Netherlands and other key export markets such as the U.K. are likely to hinder sales. 

Kenya has allowed Ethiopian Airlines to deploy additional freighters on the Nairobi-Amsterdam route to ease capacity constraints, according to Tulezi.

While flower exports by volume declined 9.3% last year, the value of shipments increased to 108 billion shillings ($980 million) from 104 billion in 2019. 

Freight costs have more than halved to about $2.20 per kilogram, from a high of $5.20 during last year’s lockdowns.

“We’re operating in an environment of low orders, low demand, low prices and increased costs,” Billy Coulson, managing director of Nini Flowers, said by phone. 

“The retail market is doing well as supermarkets are open. I’m cautiously optimistic.”

Sales at Royal FloraHolland, which runs four auction sites in the Netherlands, look “quite positive” in the lead-up to Valentine’s Day, with lower supply pushing up prices, said company spokesman Michel van Schie. 

Prices are about 16% higher than the same period last year, he said.

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We’ve seen cumulative seroprevalence of ~40% and higher among various groups of clients who’ve had IgG antibody testing at our lab @LancetKenya_PLK @DrAhmedKalebi
Misc.


I strongly suspect immunity in the community has slowed the old infection. Hopefully no community spread of new mutated variants 

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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