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Tuesday 02nd of February 2021
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Afternoon
Africa
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Register and its all Free.
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04-JAN-2021 :: What Will Happen In 2021
World Of Finance
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My Top Trades are Gold and Silver. I expect Gold to top $2,500 this year and Silver to reach $50.00
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Never seen the mountain so clear for such a long time. @just_sham_it
Africa
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Yamuna Ghaat by Navin Kumar @Unique_Abstract
Misc.
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A portion of Highway 1 near Big Sur, Calif., collapsed this week and fell into the Pacific Ocean @nytimes
Misc.
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Confluence of white and blue Nile - Khartoum, Sudan.Hans Birger Nilsen @SudaneseCulture
Africa
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GerhardRichter @toiblarlos
Misc.
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“Everybody, everybody everywhere, has his own movie going, his own scenario, and everybody is acting his movie out like mad, only most people don’t know that is what they’re trapped by, their little script.” ― The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test
Misc.
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Phantom Interceptors, 1964 #richter #gerhardrichter @ArtistRichter
Misc.
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Fisherman casting his net on a lake near Mandalay, Myanmar @DriftTravel
Misc.
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Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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Myanmar’s powerful military chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, is in the spotlight after politicians from the ruling National League for Democracy party were detained and the army announced it was taking power @Reuters
Law & Politics
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The military ruled directly for nearly 50 years after a 1962 coup and had long seen itself as the guardian of national unity.
Law & Politics
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As the architect of Myanmar’s 2008 constitution, the military enshrined a permanent role for itself in the political system.
It gets an unelected quota of 25% of parliamentary seats and its chief appoints ministers of defence, interior and border affairs, ensuring a key stake in politics, which has made for an awkward power-sharing arrangement with the NLD.
“He was a man of few words and normally kept a low profile,” one classmate told Reuters in 2016.
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Geldoff: "Aung Suu Kyi took the greatest prize humans can give to another & then becomes one of the great ethnic cleansers on the planet." @cjwerleman
Law & Politics
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Can't stop looking at this mesmerising pic from St Petersburg by (I think) @anton_vaganov @shaunwalker7
Misc.
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States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
Law & Politics
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Ibn Khaldun explained the intrinsic relationship between political leadership and the management of pandemics in the pre-colonial period in his book Muqaddimah
Historically, such pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration” and, in the process, challenged their “power and curtailed their [rulers’] influence...”
Rulers who are only concerned with the well-being of their “inner circle and their parties” are an incurable “disease”.
States with such rulers can get “seized by senility and the chronic disease from which [they] can hardly ever rid [themselves], for which [they] can find no cure”
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REVEALED: MASSIVE CHINESE POLICE DATABASE @theintercept
Law & Politics
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05-MAR-2018 :: China has unveiled a Digital Panopticon in Xinjiang
Law & Politics
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Four people flagged with various colored “inspection levels” based on authorities’ perception of how dangerous they are. Screenshots: Obtained by The Intercept
Law & Politics
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Data from #Covid19 worldwide as of February 01: + 443,549 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 103,410,154 in total + 10,070 deaths in 24 hours, i.e. 2,238,725 in total @CovidTracker_fr
Misc.
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1 out of 735 Americans have died from covid-19. (it was 1 per 1000 on December 26th) @EricTopol
Misc.
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A reality TV star botched the response to a global pandemic #COVID19
Law & Politics
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New report: UK variant 1.65 times more deadly after 20 days in over 92,000 cases (95% confidence interval is 1.21-2.25). @yaneerbaryam
Misc.
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They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.
Misc.
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In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.
A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.
But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions
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Key mutation found in South Africa and Brazilian variants, E484K, suspected to cause both reduced immunity of previous infections and reduced reliability of vaccination protection @@yaneerbaryam
Misc.
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The ''warp speed'' Vaccine Roll Out is chasing the coat Tails of the Virus.
Misc.
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Portugal reported close to half of all its COVID-19 deaths in January @Reuters
Misc.
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Hospitals across the nation of just over 10 million appear on the verge of collapse, with ambulances queuing sometimes for hours for lack of beds and some health units struggling to find enough refrigerated space to preserve bodies.
Officials have blamed the huge increase in the infection and death rates on the more contagious British variant of the disease, and also acknowledged that a relaxation of restrictions on social contact over the Christmas holidays played a role.
In January, a total of 5,576 people died from the coronavirus, representing 44.7% of all 12,482 fatalities since the virus started to spread in the Iberian country in March last year, data from health authority DGS showed.
The association representing funeral homes warned that public hospitals were running out of refrigerated space to preserve bodies of COVI-19 victims, and some, including Portugal’s largest hospital Santa Maria, have installed extra cold containers to ease pressure on their morgues.
A total of 711,018 infections have been reported since March 2020, with 43% of those infections in January, according to DGS.
Portugal has the world’s highest seven-day rolling average of new daily cases per million inhabitants, according to data tracker ourworldindata.org
With a total of 858 people with COVID-19 in intensive care units and 6,694 in hospital wards,
Portuguese hospitals are running out of beds and there is a shortage of doctors and nurses.
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The new Brazilian variant of COVID-19 is already present in 91 percent of COVID-19 cases analyzed in the state of Amazonas
Misc.
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In December, the one named “P.1” was detected in 51 percent of the samples analyzed in the laboratories and in the first half of January that percentage jumped substantially to 91 percent, which confirms that it has been become the predominant lineage in Amazon.
In this sense, the fact that it shares mutations with the variants originating in the United Kingdom and South Africa, and that it has been found more frequently in genetic studies, suggests that it is “more transmissible”, according to Felipe Naveca , a researcher at the Leônidas Institute. & María Deane, linked to Fiocruz
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Malcolm Gladwell ‟Tipping Point‟ moment in an epidemic when a virus reaches critical mass. It‟s the boiling point. It‟s the moment on the graph when the line starts to shoot straight upwards.
World Of Finance
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First two local cases of P.1 variant in Leticia, Colombia. First of them with symptoms onset on 2th of January. @ZulmaCucunuba
Misc.
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''Viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics' #COVID19
Misc.
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These data indicate that there were 4.8 (95% CI: 2.8-6.8) undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed case of COVID-19 during this same time period in the United States, and an estimated 16.8 million undiagnosed cases by mid-July 2020
Misc.
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Drinking The Kool Aid
World Of Finance
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Members of the World Health Organization's team investigating the origins of the coronavirus pandemic arrive at the Huanan seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, China, on Jan. 31, 2021. (Kyodo) ==Kyodo
Misc.
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“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.”― Thomas Pynchon 01-MAR-2020 Origin of #COVID19
Misc.
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Horizontal gene transfer and recombination analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genes helps discover its close relatives and shed light on its origin
Misc.
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The results of our horizontal gene transfer and recombination analysis suggest that SARS-CoV-2 could not only be a chimera virus resulting from recombination of the bat RaTG13 and Guangdong pangolin coronaviruses but also a close relative of the bat CoV ZC45 and ZXC21 strains. They also indicate that a GD pangolin may be an intermediate host of this dangerous virus.
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SimPlot similarity analysis
Misc.
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Our SimPlot analysis (Fig. 1a) conducted with 25 CoV genomes (see the ‘Methods’ section for a detailed data description) shows that the Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13 genomes share 96.14% of whole-genome identity, while the Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 and GD Pangolin genomes are 90.34% identical.
The RaTG13 and GD Pangolin CoV genomes are by far the closest ones to the SARS-CoV-2 genome.
For example, only 85.43% of whole-genome identity is shared between the Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 and GX Pangolin CoV genomes.
Given such a close resemblance between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13, bat is a likely reservoir of origin for SARS-CoV-2, as was the case during previous CoV outbreaks.
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There is no natural Pathway for the Evolution of COVID19.
Misc.
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Today only the Paid for Propagandists and Virologists and WHO will argue that there is a ''zoonotic'' origin for COVID19.
It is remarkable that the Propaganda is still being propagated more than a year later.
There is no natural Pathway for the Evolution of COVID19.
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Gene-by-gene SimPlot similarity analysis performed to compare gene sequences of the Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 2020 reference genome with those of the RatTG13 genome (green), GD Pangolin CoV consensus genome (red) and Bat CoVZ consensus genome (violet)
Misc.
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Gene-by-gene SimPlot similarity analysis performed to compare gene sequences of the Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 2020 reference genome with those of the RatTG13 genome (green), GD Pangolin CoV consensus genome (red) and Bat CoVZ consensus genome (violet). Similarity plots are presented for genes ORF1ab, S, ORF3a, M, ORF7a and N that encompass the most important overlaps between the RaTG13, GD Pangolin CoV and Bat CoVZ similarity curves
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‘’Zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.
Misc.
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International Markets
World Of Finance
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.2067
Dollar Index 90.966
Japan Yen 104.944
Swiss Franc 0.8973
Pound 1.3685
Aussie 0.7613
India Rupee 72.9615
South Korea Won 1117.80
Brazil Real 5.4326
Egypt Pound 15.735
South Africa Rand 14.97765
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Dollar Index Chart INO 90.967
World Currencies
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Euro versus the Dollar Chart 1.20715
World Currencies
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Germany Retail sales plunge 9.6% in Dec on the month in real terms, the biggest drop since April 1956!, and way lower than a Reuters forecast for a drop of 2.6%. @Schuldensuehner
Retail & Manufacturing
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There is no V shaped recovery coming in 2021. Thats just a Fantasy. The Spinning Top
World Of Finance
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RIP consumer credit in the UK.. @TetotRemi
World Of Finance
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04-JAN-2021 :: The Optimal Trade is to be long Dec 2021 Short Sterling or Call Options on the same contract LZ21 (Dec '21)
World Of Finance
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What’s certain is that the whole global economy has been hit by an insidious, literally invisible circuit breaker. @asiatimesonline #COVID19
World Of Finance
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Gold 6 month INO 1846.00
Commodities
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The price of crude #oil (#WTI) rise to above USD 54, the highest level in over a year. @jsblokland
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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Boeing says 118 orders for 777X no longer firm under accounting rules
Tourism, Travel & Transport
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Denmark suspends flights from Dubai amid doubts over virus tests @AP
Emerging Markets
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Denmark has temporarily suspended all flights from the United Arab Emirates for five days after suspicion arose the coronavirus tests that can be obtained before leaving Dubai are not reliable, authorities announced Friday.
Danish authorities faced a “concrete and serious citizen inquiry into" how the tests are carried out at Dubai entry and exit points, he said, and "therefore we need to be absolutely sure that there are no problems."
Engelbrecht said at least "one citizen" brought the South African variant of the virus "back from Dubai."
He did not identify the person. Dubai has seen an increase in the number of South African residents as the latter country's economy deteriorated in recent years
On Friday, as the UAE shattered its 11th consecutive daily infection record with 3,552 new cases, Dubai's state-run media office announced strict new limits on weddings, social events, and private parties beginning next Wednesday, restricting all gatherings to 10 immediate family members.
Wedding parties at hotels and other venues previously had been capped at 200.
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4 FEB 14 :: Dubai is the real transit state, a connection point in an interconnected century
Emerging Markets
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CoViD19-ΛFЯICΛ: Confirmed: 3 568 220 (+ 15833) Actives: 421 640 (-3294) @NCoVAfrica
Africa
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Confirmed: 3 568 220 (+ 15833)
Actives: 421 640 (-3294)
Deaths: 90 990 (+ 529)
Recoveries: 3 053 148 (+ 18598)
Conclusions
Active Cases 18.91% below record high Print in January 2021
active #Covid19 cases record 520,000 was in January 2021 @NKCAfrica
According to @NCoVAfrica [1st wave] Peak Daily Infections was 24th July 2020 and 20,873
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Drinking the Kool-Aid We are not there yet. The exponential moment is still in front of us. #COVID19
Africa
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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 39 days and has reported more than 3,599,000 since the pandemic began @ReutersGraphics
Africa
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6 countries are still at the peak of their infection curve.
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We all know by now ''viruses exhibit non-linear and exponential characteristics'
Africa
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Update: #COVID19 in #SouthAfrica 1 February '21 • New cases = 2 548 • Test positivity = 11.8% • Active cases = 105 888 @rid1tweets
Africa
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• New cases = 2 548
• New tests = 21 549
• Test positivity = 11.8%
• New deaths = 235
• Active cases = 105 888
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Halving rates: With new #COVID19 cases reducing in SA and across all provinces, here's how long it's taken for current cases to half @@rid1tweets
Africa
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SA: 9 days
GP: 5 days
EC: 5 days
WC: 7 days
LP: 7 days
KZN: 11 days
NW: 14 days
NC: 18 days
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South Africa is loosening its lockdown regulations after a steady decline in new cases and hospitalizations. Curfew pushed back to 11 pm. Beaches to be reopened. Alcohol sales ban to be eased @geoffreyyork
Africa
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South Africa is loosening its lockdown regulations after a steady decline in new cases and hospitalizations. Curfew pushed back to 11 pm. (Establishments must close by 10 pm.) Beaches to be reopened. Alcohol sales ban to be eased (Mon to Thurs sales, for off-site consumption).
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They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.
Africa
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In this respect, our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; in other words, they were humanists: they disbelieved in pestilences.
A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.
But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanists first of all, because they have taken no precautions
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Professor Allen Bartlett
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UPDATE 2-Ethiopia's debt relief request to put other DSSI nations under scrutiny - @MorganStanley @Reuters
Africa
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LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Ethiopia’s request for debt relief in recent days is likely to put other poor countries also eligible for the G20’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) under bond market pressure, Morgan Stanley analysts said on Monday.
Ethiopia has said it plans to seek a restructuring of its sovereign debt under a new common framework of the G20 group of major economies designed to help with the financial pressures of COVID-19, and is examining all options.
The news pushed its government bonds to their biggest daily fall on Friday amid worries that private sector holders will be forced to take a writedown and also trigger a default in the eyes of the main credit rating agencies.
“G20 DSSI-eligible sovereigns and those requesting IMF programmes may come under additional scrutiny following Ethiopia’s request for debt relief,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note to clients.
“The key issue would be how insistent bilateral creditors would be on the private sector participating. A potentially tougher stance by the bilateral sector could weigh on emerging market high yield (countries with weaker credit ratings).”
In all, 73 countries here are eligible for a temporary suspension of debt service payments owed to their official bilateral creditors. So far, around 40 have requested to benefit.
The G20 has also called on private creditors such as investment funds to participate in the initiative on comparable terms. The suspension period, originally set to end on Dec. 31, 2020, now runs until June and could be extended further.
Morgan Stanley said it was putting the DSSI countries in focus and other low-rated countries into three main groups.
The first includes those that still have manageable debt levels, access to borrowing markets or can tap existing International Monetary Fund programmes such as Egypt, Jordan, Nigeria, Ivory Coast and Senegal.
A second category where fiscal finances are worsening - requiring either an “extremely supportive” external backdrop or new IMF support to get through - includes Pakistan, Cameroon Kenya, Costa Rica and recently defaulted Argentina and Ecuador.
Cameroon’s bonds seemed particularly spooked, suffering their biggest drop on Monday since March’s initial global rout.
The final group has those currently in default such as Zambia and Lebanon as well as those seen as at risk for a while such as Sri Lanka, which faces a $1 billion redemption in July followed by $500 million-$1 billion ones every 6-9 months thereafter.
Tunisia was also now in that category with ongoing protests now making budget savings even more difficult, along with heavily indebted Mozambique and Congo, and finally Laos and Maldives where COVID-19 has hammered their tourism sectors.
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Turning to Africa the Spinning Top
Africa
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The real challenge is the Economic Emergency.
The latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa projects economic activity in the region to decline by 3.0% in 2020 and recover by 3.1% in 2021. @IMFNews
The IMF is so bright eyed and bushy tailed and I want some of whatever Pills they are popping.
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An extraordinary press release that is a case study in how not to write an official statement. Subject is debt restructuring, here referred to as "debt treatment" @RAbdiAnalyst
Africa
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Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance
Africa
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EM Debt 1.0.3.: When an issuer has a press released signed by Lazard, bonds should not be trading at 95 cents...@zav999
Africa
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Comparison between #Kenya & #Ethiopia eurobond due 2024 telling a story. @emsovdebt
Africa
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Yields recovered from pandemic market freeze in Mar-May 2020. Conflict led to spike for Ethiopia in Nov-20 & now news of joining common framework for debt workout has fuelled fear bond investors take haircu
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@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
Africa
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Ethiopia which was once the Poster child of the African Renaissance now has a Nobel Prize Winner whom I am reliably informed
PM Abiy His inner war cabinet includes Evangelicals who are counseling him he is "doing Christ's work"; that his faith is being "tested". @RAbdiAnalyst
@PMEthiopia has launched an unwinnable War on Tigray Province.
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Yields on Ethiopia’s $1 billion of 2024 Eurobonds climbed 26 basis points to 8.85% by 1:50 p.m. in London after jumping 207 points on Friday to the highest since May @markets
Africa
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Ethiopia may approach private creditors for debt talks after it reviews liabilities with official lenders, amid security risks that are adding to investors’ worries
Yields on Ethiopia’s $1 billion of 2024 Eurobonds climbed 26 basis points to 8.85% by 1:50 p.m. in London after jumping 207 points on Friday to the highest since May.
The premium investors demand to hold the nation’s dollar bonds rather than U.S. Treasuries widened 31 basis points to 807, compared with the 538 average for African sovereign issuers, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes.
As with earlier bilateral debt relief, including via the Paris Club, Eurobond holders can choose not to participate in the program, according to the Morgan Stanley analysts.
“The key issue would be how insistent bilateral creditors would be on the private sector participating,” they said.
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"The final export figures are in, we can announce a record-breaking 2020 export season that delivered 146 million cartons of South African citrus to the rest of the world." -- @justchad_cga @WandileSihlobo
Africa
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"In March 2020, we predicted a bumper citrus export volume of 143 million cartons. Now that the final export figures are in, we can announce a record-breaking 2020 export season that delivered 146 million cartons of South African citrus to the rest of the world." -- @justchad_cga
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
Africa
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Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 14.966
Africa
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar Chart INO 15.7372
Africa
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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In a categorisation of DSSI countries, Morgan Stanley has put Kenya in the same category as recently defaulted Argentina. @MihrThakar
Kenyan Economy
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"..fiscal finances are worsening - requiring either an "extremely supportive" external backdrop or new IMF support to get through.." Source: Reuters
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Kenya is projected to have the biggest recovery in Africa for 2021 @IanECox
Kenyan Economy
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9-NOV-2020 :: The IMF is so bright eyed and bushy tailed and I want some of whatever Pills they are popping.
Kenyan Economy
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The IMF’s Economic Crystal Ball Is Broken Desmond Lachman @TheNatlInterest
Kenyan Economy
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Kenyan Flower Growers Need Freight for Valentine’s Day @markets @herbling
Kenyan Economy
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Reduced air-freight capacity and lockdowns in key European markets threaten to hurt Kenyan flower sales for Valentine’s Day.
Kenya’s flower producers are receiving orders for Feb. 14, but freight capacity is “our biggest worry,” Clement Tulezi, chief executive of the Kenya Flower Council, said on Monday.
Freight demand typically doubles to 5,500 tons in the week before Valentine’s Day, requiring an additional weekly shipping capacity of 3,000 tons, he said.
The East African nation exports about 70% of its flowers via Amsterdam, and restrictions in the Netherlands and other key export markets such as the U.K. are likely to hinder sales.
Kenya has allowed Ethiopian Airlines to deploy additional freighters on the Nairobi-Amsterdam route to ease capacity constraints, according to Tulezi.
While flower exports by volume declined 9.3% last year, the value of shipments increased to 108 billion shillings ($980 million) from 104 billion in 2019.
Freight costs have more than halved to about $2.20 per kilogram, from a high of $5.20 during last year’s lockdowns.
“We’re operating in an environment of low orders, low demand, low prices and increased costs,” Billy Coulson, managing director of Nini Flowers, said by phone.
“The retail market is doing well as supermarkets are open. I’m cautiously optimistic.”
Sales at Royal FloraHolland, which runs four auction sites in the Netherlands, look “quite positive” in the lead-up to Valentine’s Day, with lower supply pushing up prices, said company spokesman Michel van Schie.
Prices are about 16% higher than the same period last year, he said.
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East African Breweries estimates it will incur Shs 14 billion in losses should proposed law changes to raise minimum 750ml bottles be adopted. Business Daily @moneyacademyKE
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
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Loss derived from purchase of new machinery, glass waste and loss of business. — Business Daily
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EABL share price data and HY Earnings
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied
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We’ve seen cumulative seroprevalence of ~40% and higher among various groups of clients who’ve had IgG antibody testing at our lab @LancetKenya_PLK @DrAhmedKalebi
Misc.
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I strongly suspect immunity in the community has slowed the old infection. Hopefully no community spread of new mutated variants
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The whole of January 2021 passed by with persistently low #COVID19 positivity rate <5% in Kenya Such a run of low positivity rate hasn’t been seen since May 2020, now in its 5th straight week
Africa
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 110.15
World Currencies
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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The stock market is a country's "happiness index". @MihrThakar
Africa
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"The markets are never wrong" said @PaulKagame
Africa
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Every Listed Share Can Be Interrogated Here
N.S.E General
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