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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 11th of February 2021
 
Afternoon
Africa




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This is a sine wave. It’s got an up bit and a down bit, and they’re both important part of the wave. @coloradotravis
World Of Finance


Imagine a market in which things mean-revert over time around “fundamentals” which is sort of driven by buying and selling and cash needs of holders and… you know… whatever

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If two of these sine waves overlay, they sort of cancel each other out. not unlike how market participants with different and timeframes work together to do “price discovery” converging on “fair value” @coloradotravis
World Of Finance



If two of these sine waves overlay, they sort of cancel each other out.  This is not unlike how market participants with different and timeframes work together to do “price discovery” converging on “fair value” as these layered incentives stack up.

Beautiful, really.

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Create a moderate-to-high volatility environment
World Of Finance

Create a moderate-to-high volatility environment

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Ants do this thing that I’m obsessed with — it’s called a ‘circular mill.’ @coloradotravis
World Of Finance


Basically, when an ant finds food it gets so STOKED that it secrets pheromones on its way back to the hive, then all the other ants get STOKED and follow it to the food. But sometimes they mess up.


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I've already brought them back :-) @J_Bomb_3k
World Of Finance



‘The news channel reports on a massive outbreak of wilding in in the city's most prestigious commercial district.’

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08-FEB-2021 :: The Markets Are Wilding [continued]
World Of Finance



@elonmusk I am become meme, Destroyer of shorts


Mr. Musk can pump and dump just about anything with a tweet. he has superpowers.


And on February 4 He tested that hypothesis

No highs, no lows, only Doge @elonmusk Feb 4 


Dogecoin is the people’s crypto @elonmusk Feb 4





 




You have it all wrong The Pink Tulips aren't Trading Tulips, they're investing Tulips @StockCats

The rise and fall of RCA, the biggest growth story of the 1929 bull market: @WalterDeemer

The hardest thing at the peak is to be the naysayer the short seller.

Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom. VS NAIPAUL



“The businessman bought at ten and was happy to get out at twelve; the mathematician saw his ten rise to eighteen, but didn’t sell because he wanted to double his ten to twenty.”


...and so then I says to the guy, "listen - you don't understand Radio..." @coloradotravis


So here we are pirouetting atop the most expensive market in history

The 'Buffett Indicator' has hit an All-Time High. Global stocks now worth equal to 122.4% of global GDP.

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Trump hid his calls with Putin. Now, Biden has access to them. @politico
Law & Politics



“They don’t need our approval to see those [records],” a former Trump White House official said, referring to the new Biden national security team. 

“Biden owns all the call materials. There is only one president at a time.”



Conclusions



This will be fascinating because Putin like Xi played Trump all the way

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05-DEC-2016:: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk." "We copy. There's a voice." "We have gross oscillation here"
Law & Politics



However, my starting point is the election of President Donald Trump because hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital.

 Don DeLillo, who is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one of his short stories:

The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable poignancy”.

He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual- paradigm officers at Colorado Command:

“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”

“We copy. There’s a voice.”

“We have gross oscillation here.”

“There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure it’s helping.”

“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”

“Thank you, Colorado.”

“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the step-function quad.”

“It was a voice,” I told them.

“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”

The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest sadness”.

“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60 years ago.”

I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy. POTUS Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support.

Trump is a linguistic warfare specialist. Look at the names he gave his opponents: Crooked Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low-energy’ Jeb — were devastating and terminal. 

The first thing is plausible deniability 

The second thing is non-linearity, you have to learn how to navigate a linear system (the new 21st digital ecosystem) in a non-linear way. 

Beppe Grillo, the comic turned leader of the Five Star movement in Italy said: ''This is the deflagration of an epoch. It’s the apocalypse of this information system, of the TVs, of the big newspapers, of the intellectuals, of the journalists.”

He is right, traditional media has been disrupted and the insurgents can broadcast live and over the top. 

From feeding the hot-house conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant state of destabilised perception’’), timely and judicious doses of Wikileaks leaks which drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out and motivated Trump’s, what we have witnessed is something remarkable and noteworthy.

Putin has proven himself an information master, and his adversaries are his information victims.

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John Bolton: “I think Putin thinks he can play him like a fiddle.”
Law & Politics




Ambassador John Bolton was always a Hard Power Specialist and last week gave us some deep insights


.@MarthaRaddatz “How would you describe Trump's relationship with Vladimir Putin?” @ABC

John Bolton: “I think Putin thinks he can play him like a fiddle.”


Mr. Trump, he writes, was “pleading with Xi to ensure he’d win.”


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I spoke today with President Xi to offer good wishes to the Chinese people for Lunar New Year. @POTUS
Law & Politics


I also shared concerns about Beijing’s economic practices, human rights abuses, and coercion of Taiwan. I told him I will work with China when it benefits the American people.

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09-NOV-2020 :: The Single biggest Issue remains how Biden engages with the Algorithmic Master [Blaster] and Sun Tzu Maestro
Law & Politics



''The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting''

Xi salami-sliced his way into a deeply forward position during the Obama Administration and in 2020 snaffled up Hong Kong, marched 400 kilometers into Indian Territory and the Straw Man Narendra Modi has not even uttered a word and Xi might even decide to roll over Taiwan.

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Curious tidbit: WHO team requests to test old waste water samples in Wuhan pre-Dec 2019 for early covid traces knocked back as WHO team told samples all discarded. @billbirtles
China


Curious tidbit: WHO team requests to test old waste water samples in Wuhan pre-Dec 2019 for early covid traces knocked back as WHO team told samples all discarded. Similarly, 2019 blood donation samples in the city also not tested, supposedly due to laws about accessing them.

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01-MAR-2020 :: The Origin of the #CoronaVirus #COVID19
Misc.



“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.”― Thomas Pynchon, Gravity's Rainbow

 “There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.”

“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on. ”

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The @WHO appointment of Robert Mugabe which was reversed was as egregious as the appointment of @PeterDaszak @JamieMetzl
Law & Politics

So there is precedent for a decisive move by  @DrTedros the enquiry shames all the decent people working at @WHO protecting 7b souls from Pandemics

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Data from #Covid19 worldwide as of February 10 + 433 545 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 107 339 914 in total @CovidTracker_fr
Misc.


Data from #Covid19 worldwide as of February 10 + 433 545 cases in 24 hours, i.e. 107 339 914 in total + 13,314 deaths in 24 hours, i.e. 2,355,186 in total

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8-FEB-2021 :: We are at peak vaccine euphoria
Misc.




We are at peak vaccine euphoria

Global covid19 cases [are] falling at just under 2%/day @video4me


As al pacino said in scarface the world is yours

"[Manny] Oh, Well What's Coming To You, Tony? [Tony] The World, Chico, And Everything In It."



No one wants to think that

If you have a "normal" pandemic that is fading, but a "British variant" that is surging, the combined total can look like a flat, manageable situation. @spignal



They fancied themselves free, wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.

We've updated our preprint on the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01, aka B.1.1.7, with new statistical and modelling methods. 

Headline: we estimate VOC is 43–82% more transmissible than preexisting variants.

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A chart of the last 30-years or so....Three huge bubbles, two of which have burst, Fed forces rates lower and lower to deal with each bubble bursting. The Fed is trapped, it can't raise rates. @The92ers
World Of Finance



A chart of the last 30-years or so....Three huge bubbles, two of which have burst, with each bubble much larger than the one which preceded it.

Why?  Fed forces rates lower and lower to deal with each bubble bursting.  The Fed is trapped, it can't raise rates.

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08-FEB-2021 : The Markets Are Wilding [continued]
World Of Finance





Lets now turn back to the markets


The front end of the us interest rate curve is flirting with negative

The only game in town: @coloradotravis Feb 4



Negative rates are the only escape hatch

Here's my alchemy formula. You take real $ rates, -100bps and you multiply by total debt-to-GDP, 450pc, and you get a negative real cost of debt at the macro level of -4.5pc of GDP, a trillion bucks. @hendry_hugh


Here is why central banks are trapped and cannot raise rates even if inflation rises: @dlacalle_IA Feb 2

Of course timing is everything but a robust pent up recovery is simply fantasy thinking something the imf has been indulging in of late

The U.S. economy has recovered around 12.5 million jobs since April ... but is still around 10 million jobs down from pre- pandemic level from last February. @ReutersJamie



There is no V shaped recovery coming in 2021. Thats just a Fantasy. The Spinning Top


Oil has posted its Best YTD performance in 30 years. @TaviCosta



However this is less a story around increasing demand but one of better supply discipline and management.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies



Euro 1.2132

Dollar Index 90.388

Japan Yen 104.70

Swiss Franc 0.8900

Pound 1.3831

Aussie 0.7744

India Rupee 72.837

South Korea Won 1104.91

Brazil Real 5.3865

Egypt Pound 15.57

South Africa Rand 14.6685

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Risky, volatile bitcoin $BTC doesn’t belong in the portfolios of serious institutional investors. Many of its retail backers are suckers being manipulated by an army of self-serving insiders and snake oil salesmen @FT @Nouriel
World Currencies



Claims that bitcoin is the new “digital gold” are feeding a new bubble in it and other cryptocurrencies. 

The last one in 2017-18 saw bitcoin go from $1,000 to $20,000 and then fall back to $3,000 by the end of 2018.

Since the fundamental value of bitcoin is zero and would be negative if a proper carbon tax was applied to its massive polluting energy-hogging production, I predict that the current bubble will eventually end in another bust.

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This bleak reality has pushed back expectations of any meaningful recovery in global travel to 2022. @business.
World Of Finance





That may be too late to save the many airlines with only a few months of cash remaining. And the delay threatens to kill the careers of hundreds of thousands of pilots, flight crew and airport workers who’ve already been out of work for close to a year. 

Rather than a return to worldwide connectivity -- one of the economic miracles of the jet era -- prolonged international isolation appears unavoidable.

“It’s very important for people to understand that at the moment, all we know about the vaccines is that they will very effectively reduce your risk of severe disease,” said Margaret Harris, a WHO spokesperson in Geneva. 

“We haven’t seen any evidence yet indicating whether or not they stop transmission.”

For now though, governments broadly remain skittish about welcoming international visitors and rules change at the slightest hint of trouble. 

It all means a rebound in passenger air traffic “is probably a 2022 thing,” according to Joshua Ng, Singapore-based director at Alton Aviation Consultancy. 

Long-haul travel may not properly resume until 2023 or 2024, he predicts. 

The International Air Transport Association said this week that in a worst-case scenario, passenger traffic may only improve by 13% this year. 

Its official forecast for a 50% rebound was issued in December.

Quarantines that lock up passengers upon arrival for weeks on end remain the great enemy of a real travel rebound. 

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08-FEB-2021 - The Markets Are Wilding [continued]
Commodities



Gold took a hit



The gold story is very similar to the #Thesilversqueeze a lot of commentators I follow have been very snooty about the merry band of redditeers but the fact of the matter is very simple. 

The paper markets trade a multiple of the physical market and the paper ‘’tail’’ has been wagging the precious metals ‘’dog’’ the redditeers can see this. 

If you squeeze the physical markets then you reprice the paper market and exponentially and asymmetrically to the upside. I expect that to happen this year.

Keep an eye on gold deliveries



The price impulse will be emitted from the gold deliveries situation.

Keep and eye on silver deliveries and etfs



I stand by my forecast

04-JAN-2021 :: What Will Happen In 2021


My Top Trades are Gold and Silver. I expect Gold to top $2,500 this year and Silver to reach $50.00

These are wilding markets. Stay safe.


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Brazil record 1,986 #COVID19 deaths yesterday above 1,030/day avg unchanged past 2wks. @jmlukens
Emerging Markets



Countries w/ new record COVID-19 deaths yesterday

#Brazil: 1,986

#Lesotho: 24

#UAE: 17

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Africa is currently reporting a million new infections about every 42 days and has reported more than 3,727,000 since the pandemic began. @ReutersGraphics
Africa



6 countries are still at the peak of their infection curve. Re Union South Sudan Seychelles 96% Mayotte 96% Ghana 95% Senegal 95% 

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South Africa COVID cases plummeting @docwas
Africa


Big Exponential Slide in South Africa Case Load 

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Daily test positivity = 6.5%. Has not been this low in 105 days • Active cases = 65 137 @rid1tweets
Africa




• New cases = 1 742

• New tests = 26 859

• Test positivity = 6.5% 

• Deaths = 396

• Active cases = 65 137


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Health Alert – U.S. Embassy Dar es Salaam (February 10, 2021) @usembassytz
Africa



Health Alert – U.S. Embassy Dar es Salaam (February 10, 2021)

Location:  Tanzania

Event:  Increase in COVID-19 Cases

The U.S. Embassy is aware of a significant increase in the number of COVID-19 cases since January 2021.  

The practice of COVID-19 mitigation and prevention measures remains limited.  

The Tanzanian government has not released aggregate numbers on COVID-19 cases or deaths since April 2020.  

Healthcare facilities in Tanzania can become quickly overwhelmed in a healthcare crisis.  

Limited hospital capacity throughout Tanzania could result in life-threatening delays for emergency medical care.

The Department of State’s travel advisory level for Tanzania is Level 3 – Reconsider Travel due to COVID-19.  

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention states travelers should avoid all travel to Tanzania.  

The most current information regarding the impact of COVID-19 may be found at our COVID-19 Information Page.

Effective January 26, all airline passengers to the United States ages two years and older must provide a negative COVID-19 viral test taken within three calendar days of travel.  

Alternatively, travelers to the U.S. may provide documentation from a licensed health care provider of having recovered from COVID-19 in the 90 days preceding travel.  

Check the CDC website for additional information and Frequently Asked Questions.

COVID-19 testing is available through Government of Tanzania laboratories.  The details of testing (including test type and performance characteristics) have not been made available or independently verified.  

While tests results are often received within 72 hours, results are not always returned within a timely manner and there are reports of individuals receiving inconclusive results and being asked to repeat the test after several days.  

Travelers have tested positive upon arrival in foreign destinations following negative COVID-19 tests in Tanzania prior to departure.

The U.S. Embassy is providing limited Consular services only.  Please see our website for information on American Citizen Services appointments and visa services.

The Embassy continues to recommend that all individuals take caution in day-to-day activities (e.g., limiting entry of individuals into your home) and take steps to limit potential exposure while outside the home (e.g., observe social distancing, wear a face mask, avoid crowds, and wash your hands frequently).

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Pandemics had the capacity to overtake “the dynasties at the time of their senility, when they had reached the limit of their duration”
Africa


Merkel pronounced “You cannot fight the pandemic with lies and disinformation...the limits of Populism are being laid bare.”

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Africa's miners and winemakers toast China's row with Australia @Reuters
Africa



For South African winemaker Vergenoegd Löw, the pandemic could have been a disaster but a bitter trade war between China and Australia has thrown the 325-year-old estate a lifeline.

Bottles of its reds, whites and roses piled up when South Africa banned alcohol sales under a strict lockdown and visitors who once flocked to the vineyard near Cape Town to sip wine and snap photos of its famed Indian Runner ducks vanished.


That changed when Beijing slapped tariffs of up to 212% on Australian wine in November after Canberra led calls for an inquiry into the origins of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan.

It wasn’t just wine. Beijing hit a range of Australian goods with punitive duties, created new layers of red tape and banned some Australian imports outright, giving African suppliers of anything from coal to beef to copper a boost.

“We can now get much greater volumes of sales,” said Shaun McVey, marketing manager at Vergenoegd Löw, which has signed a new Chinese deal. 

“Instead of sending maybe three or four containers in a year, we’ve upped that to 15 to 20 containers.”

Chinese drinkers bought nearly 40% of Australia’s wine exports before the long-simmering tensions between Beijing and Canberra boiled over and brought the trade to an abrupt halt.

Over the past three months, exports of South African wine to China jumped 50%, according to the Wines of South Africa trade body, and hopes are high for even more sales once Australian stocks are polished off during China’s Lunar New Year holiday.

Martyn Davies, Deloitte’s managing director for emerging markets and Africa, said a protracted trade war would create a wide window of opportunity for miners and other sectors such as agribusiness, though seizing the potential would take work.

The Chinese market presents a range of obstacles, from language barriers and inscrutable bureaucracy to tailoring marketing to its unique social media ecosystem, analysts said.


“Many African companies are significantly behind the curve,” said Deloitte’s Davies. “Australian companies have been engaging China for 35 years.”

BAUXITE BOOST

The lack of trade deals between China and countries in sub-Saharan Africa also means exporters may face an uphill battle.

Despite its increasingly important role as an investor on the continent, China only signed its first free trade agreement with an African country, the Indian Ocean island nation of Mauritius, in January.

So while some African products may leapfrog Australian goods in the pecking order, they remain at a disadvantage when competing against exports from countries with preferential Chinese trading terms such as Chile, Peru or New Zealand.

In the mining sector though, China has spent the past decade ramping up projects in Africa to safeguard the flow of raw materials to the manufacturing juggernaut.

Those investments are now paying off and African producer countries are pocketing the royalties as exports to the world’s second biggest economy get a boost at Australia’s expense.

Last year, state-owned Aluminum Corp of China Ltd, known as Chalco, shipped the first bauxite cargo from its Guinea project, and a prolonged trade war between China and Australia is only likely to help the West African country’s economy.

Australian shipments to China of the rock used to make aluminium dropped 22% in the final quarter of 2020 while imports from Guinea leapt 70%, according to Chinese customs data.

That’s after Guinea tripled its bauxite output between 2015 and 2019 as mining projects came online, with most of it going to China. Over the same period, Guinea’s gross domestic product jumped 40%.

Chinese copper concentrate imports from Australia, meanwhile plummeted to zero in December 2020. 

At the same time, exports rose 17% from Democratic Republic of Congo, another country where Chinese companies such as China Molybdenum have invested heavily to secure key mineral supplies.

South Africa’s coal industry has also got a much-needed boost. Australian sales to China of thermal coal, which is mainly used in power plants, and metallurgical coal for steelmaking, slumped to zero in December.

The first shipment of South African thermal coal to China in five years landed last month and exporters are hopeful sales will increase further in 2021.

To overcome the lack of trade deals with China, South Africa’s Standard Bank, which is partly owned by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, has sought to level the playing field.

Africa’s largest bank measured by assets is using online platforms and events to match its customers with Chinese buyers in a bid to boost exports.

Those efforts, however, now face challenges unique to the coronavirus pandemic, such as a shipping squeeze due to global trade distortions that have sparked a bidding war for container space and pushed prices to record highs.

“You get a lot of interest. And then when people see the cost of logistics at this point in time, they end up not concluding on the transaction,” said Philip Myburgh, Standard Bank’s head of Africa-China banking.

Still, wine is one African export Standard Bank considers a good bet. So does Edouard Duval, chief executive of East Meets West Fine Wines, one of China’s biggest wine importers.

If South Africa can capture just 1% of the 38% market share Australian imports are rapidly vacating, it would double its exports to China, he said. “The potential is there ... it’s a very dynamic and fast-moving market.”

South Africa typically exports less than half of its wine and earned 9.1 billion rand ($616 million) from overseas sales last year,

 with Britain buying by far the most. Sales to China came to just $19 million.

Even though Chinese tariffs wiped out Australian wine sales in November and December, its exports to China alone still came to A$1.01 billion ($779 million) last year.

At his “Cheers” wine store in Beijing, Lin Lulu is not too concerned about the impact of the trade war with Australia.

“South African wine now has great advantages over Australian wine because of the new tariff situation,” he said as he stocked his shelves with South African reds. 

“South African wines are more innovative and beautiful.”



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Russian diamond producer Alrosa PJSC will buy and donate the @sputnikvaccine coronavirus vaccines to Angola and Zimbabwe to help those nations’ inoculation programs, Chief Executive Officer Sergey Ivanov said
Africa



Russian diamond producer Alrosa PJSC will buy and donate the Sputnik V coronavirus vaccines to Angola and Zimbabwe to help those nations’ inoculation programs, Chief Executive Officer Sergey Ivanov said.

“We intend to provide dozens of thousands of vaccines to each of these countries upon their availability for exports,” Ivanov said Wednesday in an emailed response to questions. 

He didn’t specify the amount of vaccines that will be given to the two African nations.

Alrosa, which has operations in both southern African countries, will supply the vaccines once emergency-use authorization for the Sputnik V vaccine is granted. 

“Allowing for time needed to produce the vaccine, we expect first shipments to start from the second half of March,” Ivanov said.

The Sputnik V vaccine, once scorned by the West, has now been approved for use in at least 20 countries and shown to rival U.S. and European Union-produced shots with an efficacy of 92%. 

Zimbabwean Information Minister Monica Mutsvangwa on Tuesday told a press briefing that in addition to the donation from Russia, talks for purchasing more doses have begun.


The coronavirus pandemic hasn’t altered Alrosa’s perspective on Zimbabwe’s diamond-mining prospects and the company intends to “accelerate its activities” there, Ivanov said.

 Alrosa Zimbabwe, which holds 25 prospecting concessions, expects to receive another “15 by late February to early March,” he said.


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28 OCT 19 :: From Russia with Love
Africa



“Our African agenda is positive and future-oriented. We do not ally with someone against someone else, and we strongly oppose any geopolitical games involving Africa.”

Between 2006 and 2018 Russia’s trade with Africa increased by 335 per cent, more than both China’s and India’s according to the Espresso Economist.

“Russia regards Africa as an important and active participant in the emerging polycentric architecture of the world order and an ally in protecting international law against attempts to undermine it,” said Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov back in November 2018.

To simplify, Russia’s “political technologists” have reportedly devised bespoke solutions for confronting incipient and ongoing color revolutions, just like its private military contractors (PMCs) have supposedly done the same when it comes to ending insurgencies

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Absa Africa Financial Markets Index
Africa


The countries whose standing improved the most from last year are Ghana, Morocco and Seychelles. 

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@SafaricomPLC share price data
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Price: 36.40 Market Capitalization: $13.294b EPS: 1.84 PE: 19.783

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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February 2021
 
 
 
 
 
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