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Thursday 17th of September 2020
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Intact. - QE goes on.- Low rates through 2023. - Twin deficits at record levels. Just a big picture reminder: @TaviCosta
World Of Finance
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National debt has grown over 3.5x nominal GDP since the break of the gold standard.
Only one way out folks…
Monetary debasement.
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08-JUN-2020 :: EXPECT MORE BRRR!
World Of Finance
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Ghalib's first poem written when he was eight or ten years old was on kite flying: @FarooqiMehr
Misc.
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One day, my heart like a paper kite,
Took off on freedom’s string,
And began to shy away from me,
Became so wayward, it pestered me.
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Morning of Judgment Day became a false dawn in the forest @FarooqiMehr
Misc.
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Subh-e qiyāmat ēk dum-e gurg thī Asad
Jis dasht men voh shokh-e do ‘ālam shikār thā
Morning of Judgment Day became a false dawn in the forest, Asad,
where my playful beloved, the charmer of both worlds, was hunting
#Ghalib
1/2
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The beloved who makes a prey of both worlds (heaven and earth) creates such a furor wherever she hunts that the dawn of Judgment paled and was reduced to a false dawn. @FarooqiMehr
Misc.
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The beloved who makes a prey of both worlds (heaven and earth) creates such a furor wherever she hunts that the dawn of Judgment paled and was reduced to a false dawn.
False dawn or subh-e kāzib is silent; whereas the subh-e qayamat is full of tumult.
#Ghalib
2/2
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A Luminous and Fairy Tale Feel
World Of Finance
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Nirav Patel @oct1064
Misc.
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Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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Japan’s ruling party leader Yoshihide Suga @sugawitter has been elected prime minister, becoming the country’s first new premier since 2012. @business @QuickTake
Law & Politics
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I wonder what is in his Quiver?
Law & Politics
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Global Cases Added Per Day New Cases 368,028 versus 265,000 average @business #COVID19
Misc.
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Globally, daily cases are slowly ticking up and are averaging more than 265,000 per day...@TetotRemi
Misc.
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The exponential moment is still in front of us. #COVID19
Misc.
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It took 18 days for global cases to surge from 25 million to more than 30 million
Misc.
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Trajectory... confirmed cases...#COVID19 @TetotRemi
Misc.
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India has yet to contain the outbreak...#COVID19 @TetotRemi
Misc.
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#COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
Misc.
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―They fancied themselves free,‖ wrote Camus, ―and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.‖
Misc.
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In Europe, daily cases are growing rapidly....#COVID19 @TetotRemi
Misc.
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In the Year [2020] of the Virus, which began with a Bang and the Assassination of the iconic Qasem Suleimani, it is as if everything has turned viral, non linear and multiplicative
Misc.
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In the US, daily cases appear to be ticking up...#COVID19 @TetotRemi
Misc.
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A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure; therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away.
Misc.
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In South America, the decline was short-lived, with daily cases bouncing again...#COVID19 @TetotRemi
Misc.
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Meanwhile in Argentina, the number of daily cases is near an all-time high...#COVID19 @TetotRemi
Misc.
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A UK company that promises a 20 second Covid test is run out of a flat in the village of Toddington and has links to a company that made hoaxes about Big Foot @MattGarrahan
Misc.
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UK PM Johnson: We Do Not Have Enough Testing Capacity - Will Be At 500K Testing Capacity By End-Oct @LiveSquawk
Law & Politics
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Scientists to examine possibility Covid leaked from lab as part of investigation into virus origins @Telegraph
Africa
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An international team of scientists will examine the possibility Sars-Cov-2 leaked from a laboratory as part of a comprehensive investigation into the origins of the virus.
The team is being set up as part of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission, a body established in July to “offer practical solutions” to the pandemic and make recommendations on how the next one can be avoided or better defended against.
The team looking at the origins of the virus will be led by Dr Peter Daszak, a British zoologist and leading authority on zoonotic spillover events.
Dr Daszak said yesterday he and his team would “systematically examine every theory” about the origin of the virus, carefully marshalling the scientific evidence for each.
He accepted conspiracy theorists would not welcome his appointment but said, as a scientist, he would “not be bound by preconceived ideas” and would investigate all avenues forensically and “with an open mind”.
He warned, however, it was not possible to “prove a negative” and said it was unlikely it would ever be possible to say with “absolute certainty” how the virus emerged.
“But what we can do is look at every possible theory on the origins of COVID-19 and say, ‘what is the evidence for that?’ And then we put all of those theories together and say, ‘where is the preponderance of evidence?’
“Is it for the virus coming from nature and spilling over into people and emerging that way? Or is it for some form of human involvement that involves a lab or biotechnology? Let's see where the evidence lies”.
Since the coronavirus first emerged in Wuhan, China in late December, a deluge of conspiracy theories have circulated about its origins.
The Lancet Commission notes in its mission statement that “the evidence to date supports the view that Sars-Cov-2 is a naturally occurring virus rather than the result of laboratory creation and release”.
But it adds that investigators should examine the ‘possibility of laboratory involvement” in “a scientific and objective way that is unhindered by geopolitical agendas and misinformation”.
It is hoped a full investigation will, if nothing else, will rule out “baseless and uninformed allegations and conspiracy theories that are unbacked by evidence”.
The wider Lancet Covid-19 Commission is being chaired by Professor Jeffery Sachs, an eminent American economist and adviser to the UN.
He will oversee the investigation, not just into the origins of virus, but the world’s reaction to it in order to make recommendations for strengthening pandemic preparedness globally.
“What we have learned, I think, about the public health response [to date] is that even though this is a devilish virus it is controllable”, he told the Telegraph.
“Around two billion people live in countries that have substantially suppressed the virus. They've been able to do that, primarily because of public health means, and especially these non-pharmaceutical interventions [social distancing]”.
“But if we look at the UK, the US, and western Europe, we failed to put such policies in place basically until now. In the US we still don't have an effective control system.
“We have a lot of emphasis on hospitals, but far far less on public health”.
Prof Sachs said he hoped and expected the Lancet Commission would be conducted on an objective basis and would be free of political bias.
“There has been a lot of rumour-mongering and statements that are way out of line, that are part of a political agenda by some people, senators in the US and others that have really gone far beyond what we know,” he said.As the world has become more developed, mobile and connected the risk of spillover events escalating has risen, causing scientists to speculate that we may be facing a “pandemic century” in which major outbreaks become much more common. “We may be much more vulnerable to these pandemics than we think,” said Dr Daszak. “We may be creating a perfect storm. And if that's true, we need to know it. We need to get some data around it.
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Bats in the night sky CREDIT: Getty Images @Telegraph
Misc.
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Peter "Baloney" Daszak, spin doctor for the Wuhan Institute of Virology, caught in countless omissions, contradictions and half-truths in relation to WIV/SARS-CoV-2, appointed to lead a team looking at the origins of the virus. @AntGDuarte
Misc.
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Having Peter Daszak lead this is like having Goebbels chase war criminals. @Harvard2H
Law & Politics
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13-JUL-2020 :: Year of the Virus
Misc.
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.@WHO experts will travel to #China this weekend to work together with their Chinese counterparts to prepare scientific plans for identifying the zoonotic source of #COVID19. @DrTedros
Misc.
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“An inquiry that presupposes — without evidence — that the virus entered humans through a natural zoonotic spillover and that fails to address the alternative possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident, will have no credibility,” said Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in New Jersey.
“To have any credibility and any value, an investigation must address the possibility that the virus entered humans through a laboratory accident and must also address the further possibility that the ability of the virus to infect humans was enhanced through laboratory manipulation — ‘gain-of-function research of concern’.”
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Dear @MaEllenSirleaf & @HelenClarkNZ The starting point of your enquiry has to be precisely what is being precluded below because “If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers.” #COVID19
Law & Politics
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I am convinced that the only ‘’zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.
Law & Politics
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However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”
Law & Politics
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According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”
However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”
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International Markets
World Of Finance
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1765
Dollar Index 93.434
Japan Yen 104.94
Swiss Franc 0.9129
Pound 1.2933
Aussie 0.7260
India Rupee 73.73
South Korea Won 1174.19
Brazil Real 5.2378
Egypt Pound 15.7499
South Africa Rand 16.41163
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Dollar Index Chart @bcpsFL 93.465
World Currencies
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Euro versus the Dollar Chart @FXPIPTITAN 1.1769
World Currencies
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This is an index of the most shorted stocks. It's at a record. RIP shorts @SarahPonczek
World Of Finance
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08-JUN-2020 :: Anybody can be decisive during a panic It takes a strong Man to act during a Boom.
World Of Finance
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“Anybody can be decisive during a panic; it takes a strong man to act during a boom.” ― V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River
“The businessman bought at ten and was happy to get out at twelve; the mathematician saw his ten rise to eighteen, but didn’t sell because he wanted to double his ten to twenty.”
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Las Vegas is officially back. @ArashMarkazi
World Of Finance
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With no one working from the office, prices of mens suits are plunging in the US. @SoberLook @adam_tooze
Retail & Manufacturing
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The Way We Live Now
World Of Finance
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Gold @CFingraphs 1944.75
Commodities
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Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 39.45
Commodities
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Australia Has a Nuclear Option in Its China Diplomacy @bopinion
Law & Politics
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After years of slow deterioration, diplomatic relations between China and Australia have taken a sharp turn for the worse.
The disputes range from pressure on journalists, to spying allegations, to an investigation of Australia’s wine exports.
Beijing holds most of the cards, but Australia does have one doomsday weapon at its disposal. It’s better not used.
The conflict echoes China’s widening disputes with other countries.
Two journalists working for Australian Broadcasting Corp. and the Australian Financial Review newspaper fled China this week, after a third Australian working for state-run China Global Television Network was detained.
For their part, Australia’s intelligence services have interviewed at least one Chinese journalist in a probe of alleged covert foreign influence of a state legislator, according to reports in Xinhua news agency and the Sydney Morning Herald.
Recent years have been a minefield of clashes over Australia’s foreign-influence laws, China’s human rights record and response to Covid-19, and even competitive swimming.
These diplomatic disagreements are spilling into the economic arena. Having slapped tariffs as high as 80.5% on Australian barley exports in May over alleged dumping,
China has now started an equally improbable investigation of the wine industry.
Canberra last month prevented China Mengniu Dairy Co. from buying local milk, juice and beer producer Lion from its Japanese owner Kirin Holdings Co. for reasons that aren’t really clear.
Through all this, the bedrock of their trading relationship has been surprisingly solid. China's imports from Australia are up 75% year-to-date on the same period of 2016, the last time there was a meeting between the country’s leaders.
The core of this is a product that’s absolutely central to Beijing’s ability to direct the Chinese economy: iron ore.
The 700 million metric tons China imported from Australia over the last 12 months is more than double the levels that prevailed when relations were stronger in the early 2010s.
That’s a source of surprising vulnerability for China — but like any nuclear option, it’s a weapon that Australia would be wise not to use.
As we’ve written in the past, pushing the button on giant engineering and real estate projects is to China what cutting interest rates is to other countries.
Private sector-dominated manufacturing and retail sectors are still reeling from the impact of the coronavirus, with fixed-asset investment down on levels that were already subdued last year.
State-dominated construction and engineering sectors such as power generation and real estate are where all the growth is.
Keeping the economy ticking over through 2020 is going to involve adding further to that teetering pile.
This economic machine runs on steel — and Australia has a crucial role there. Its mines provide about two-thirds of China’s iron ore imports, as well as a significant chunk of the coking coal used to turn that ore into usable metal.
Were Canberra ever to attempt to turn that supply chain into a weapon in the diplomatic spat between the two countries — by imposing spurious paperwork, for instance, as Chinese customs officials applied to Australian coal last year, according to some reports — it would be aiming at the heart of Beijing’s economic management.
China’s addiction to industrial stimulus and Australia’s desire to work as its dealer are unhealthy dynamics for both economies.
Still, it’s notable that their current fight has focused on agricultural and food produce, which attracts a lot of attention but ultimately counts for relatively few dollars.
That's probably because touching heavy industry would represent a doomsday weapon that would be quite as damaging to an export-dependent Australia as it is to an import-hungry China.
Australia has spent decades building up a reputation as a reliable supplier of raw materials to the rest of the world.
As the U.S. learned the hard way, consumers of commodities have alternatives if they don’t trust their trading partners.
American attempts to use soybeans as a weapon of trade diplomacy in the 1970s encouraged Japan to foster a rival export industry in Brazil.
Similarly, a consortium of Chinese companies in June signed a deal to develop the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, a country that might be more reliably compliant than Australia if relations with Canberra sour further.
When the dust stirred up by the wolf warriors and trade war-mongers dies down, China and Australia — and the U.S. — have far more to gain from working together than from threatening each other.
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A doomsday weapon. Photographer: Ian Waldie/Bloomberg @bopinion
Misc.
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward It has come to a Put Up or Shut Up moment ‘’Wolf Warrior’’ Strategy all point at more intensity rather than less
World Of Finance
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Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
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Unprecedented challenges but most EM/FMs did well in defending FX reserves: @akcakmak
Emerging Markets
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Saudi Arabia & Turkey worst on budgetary transfers & CA deficits, respectively
Russia currency lower on political risks but reserves up
Brazil & South Africa currencies lost with fiscal concerns
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Brazil’s real policy interest rate is now negative = lower than prior to temper tantrum in 2013. @GoldmanSachs via @SoberLook @adam_tooze
Emerging Markets
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If you buy an EM equity index. you are buying a portfolio dominated, 42%, by Chinese equity. In 2000 share would have been 5%. @adam_tooze
Emerging Markets
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"Our economy and our society have suffered great devastation. We have endured a fierce and destructive storm... we have withstood that storm," Ramaphosa says as he begins his latest pandemic TV address @jsphctrl
Africa
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Ramaphosa announces that South Africa will move to Level 1 on Sunday. This will include a further easing of restrictions on social, religious and political gatherings. (But it can't exceed 50% of venue capacity) @geoffreyyork
Africa
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Cyril Ramaphosa announces that South Africa will allow international travel (for business and leisure) from Oct. 1, but with certain restrictions on high-infection countries. @geoffreyyork
Africa
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
Africa
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Dollar versus Rand Chart.16.4295
World Currencies
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 15.76
World Currencies
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When you make it difficult/impossible for people to withdraw their investments from a bank/country/etc .. it does seem to deter people from putting money into that bank/country/etc @RencapMan
Africa
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14-OCT-2019 :: It seems to me that we are at a pivot moment and we can keep regurgitating the same old Mantras like a stuck record and if we do that this turns Ozymandias
Africa
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December 9, 2019 Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes
Africa
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Ghana’s economy has seen a contraction of 3.2%, compared with a growth rate of 5.7% in the same quarter in 2019 @ReutersAfrica.
Africa
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#COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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IMF Board’s approval of U$1b in new emergency financing, plus an increase of US$765m in the current Extended Fund Facility #Angola @KGeorgieva
Africa
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Weakening kwanza pushes #Angola #inflation to a near 3-year high in August. @NKCAfrica
Africa
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5 March 2020 Debt, virus and locusts create a perfect storm for Africa @TheAfricaReport
Africa
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Kenya will hit its Shs 9 trillion public debt ceiling within the next two years going by the projected revenue shortfall coupled with govt struggle to control expenditure — Business Daily @moneyacademyKE
Kenyan Economy
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02-MAR-2020 :: Balance Sheets are maxed out
Kenyan Economy
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Top advertisers in Kenya in the midst of the #pandemic in comparison to same period in the last two years. Safaricom PLC leads spend by far. Reelanalytics great stats. @AliHKassim
Kenyan Economy
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Would be great if you could share digital spend and where the money is going.…
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Kenya’s August tourist arrivals fall 91 percent @addisale
Kenyan Economy
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22-MAR-2020 :: Tourism is stopped out in 2020 #COVID19 [I feel behavior and consumption of Tourism is set to change more permanently]
Kenyan Economy
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Every Listed Share Can Be Interrogated Here
N.S.E General
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