Welcome to RICH.CO.KE - Satchu's Wrapup

Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up

Wednesday 30th of September 2020

Afternoon

Africa

Home Thoughts

Africa

Ukunda. Photo by @Trivettravelske @kenyapics

Africa

Sunrise at Stonehenge (29th September) @ST0NEHENGE

Africa

A Luminous and Fairy Tale Feel

World Of Finance

Wonderful bonanza of Autumn at Alexandra Hotel, Bamburet Valley, #Kalash, #Chitral, #Pakistan @DanyalGilani

Tourism, Travel & Transport

The beauty of the North . Samburu / Shaba @mohammedhersi

Africa

19-JUN-2017 :: A Trip to Samburu @SaruniCamp

Africa

Political Reflections

Law & Politics

Reuters: NBC "Nightly News" anchor Lester Holt said the debate "could have been a low point in political discourse." @Rover829

Law & Politics

'This clown' - 'Nothing smart about you': Un-presidential insults fly in first @realDonaldTrump Trump - @JoeBiden Biden debate @Reuters

Law & Politics

“You’re the worst president America has ever had,” Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee, said during a back-and-forth on taxes.

The insults featured heavily during a chaotic encounter in which Trump often talked over Biden and moderator Chris Wallace. Biden’s frustrations were frequently apparent.

“Will you shut up, man? This is so unpresidential,” Biden said to Trump during a segment on the Supreme Court.

“The fact is this man doesn’t know what he’s talking about,” Biden said during a discussion on healthcare.

Biden called the president a “clown” - twice. At one point, he apparently thought better of it.

The former vice president called Trump a “racist” for banning racial-sensitivity training in his administration.

He called Trump “Putin’s puppy,” needling him for not confronting Russia about allegedly putting bounties on U.S. soldiers.

Trump tried to object, but was reprimanded by Wallace for speaking out of turn.

On Twitter and at campaign rallies, Trump, 74, has called Biden “Sleepy Joe,” an apparent dig at the 77-year-old Democrat’s vitality. He did not use the nickname on Tuesday.

But in their first of three scheduled debates, Trump had plenty of disparaging things to say about his rival, whom he trails in national opinion polls ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

The president brought up Biden’s son’s struggles with drugs and mocked his opponent’s academic performance at the University of Delaware, where according to the Washington Post, Biden graduated 506th in a class of 688.

“He was the lowest or almost the lowest in your class. Don’t ever use the word smart with me,” Trump said. “Because you know what, there’s nothing smart about you, Joe.”

Conclusions

For now I incline towards a Trump win.

Whoever Controls the Narrative Controls The World

Law & Politics

05-DEC-2016:: Trump is a linguistic warfare specialist.

Law & Politics

China can easily shoot down US MQ-9 Reaper drones – a type of aircraft that can only bully armed forces without a proper air defense system – should the US send them and launch attacks on China @globaltimesnews

Law & Politics

The Markets are very complacent about A US China ‘’Hot War’’

Law & Politics

@aiww "The West should really have worried about China decades ago. Now it's already a bit too late, because the West has built its strong system in China and to simply cut it off, it will hurt deeply. That's why China is very arrogant."

Law & Politics

Drinking The Kool Aid

World Of Finance

.@WHO director general, @DrTedros comments, "We have a disadvantage of globalisation, closeness, connectedness, but an advantage of better technology, so we hope to finish this pandemic before less than two years." @Telegraph

Misc.

27-JAN-2020 :: Given the new hyperconnectedness of the World

World Of Finance

1 million confirmed #covid19 fatalities today. US, Brazil, India and Mexico claim over half. @fibke

Africa

John Donne wrote: "... Therefore, send not to know for whom the bell tolls, It tolls for thee..."

Misc.

More than 5,400 people are dying around the world every 24 hours, according to Reuters calculations based on September averages, overwhelming funeral businesses and cemeteries.

Misc.

That equates to about 226 people an hour, or one person every 16 seconds. In the time it takes to watch a 90-minute soccer match, 340 people die on average.

About 1.1m die globally every week @RencapMan

Misc.

About 1.1m die globally every week .. so since the end of January, 38m will have died. COVID barely touched China where more than 1 in 7 people live - yet still managed to add a week's worth of deaths to the global total and could be around two weeks worth by end-2020

.@WHO experts will travel to #China this weekend to work together with their Chinese counterparts to prepare scientific plans for identifying the zoonotic source of #COVID19. @DrTedros

Misc.

Many bat species are not potential hosts of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2: Evidence from ACE2 receptor usage

Misc.

I am convinced that the only ‘’zoonotic’’ origin was one that was accelerated in the Laboratory.

Misc.

However, after sequencing the full genome for RaTG13 the lab’s sample of the virus disintegrated, he said. “I think they tried to culture it but they were unable to, so that sample, I think, has gone.”

Misc.

According to Daszak, the mine sample had been stored in Wuhan for six years. Its scientists “went back to that sample in 2020, in early January or maybe even at the end of last year, I don’t know. They tried to get full genome sequencing, which is important to find out the whole diversity of the viral genome.”

Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ

World Currencies

Euro 1.1728

Dollar Index 93.976

Japan Yen 105.6490

Swiss Franc 0.9215700

Pound 1.2816

Aussie 0.71131

India Rupee 73.6951

South Korea Won 1169.080

Brazil Real 5.6314000

Egypt Pound 15.777100

South Africa Rand 16.95440

Dollar Index Chart INO 93.976 [Target 88]

World Currencies

Euro versus the Dollar Chart @FXPIPTITAN 1.1728 [Target 1.25]

World Currencies

Among consumers’ queries of “Is it safe...?” most dominant topics were travel & flying—pointing to continued discomfort with going out @DataArbor @GoogleTrends @LizAnnSonders

Tourism, Travel & Transport

We are in the realms of Behavourial Economics. #COVID19 and the Spillover Moment

World Of Finance

Disney to lay off 28,000 workers @DavidInglesTV

World Of Finance

Commodities

Commodities

Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Commodities

Gold Chart 1887.5

Commodities

#Oil prices slip again (Brent's down 4.2% in the past two days and nearing $40 a barrel). @PaulWallace123

Commodities

Traders seem more bearish about the recovery in global energy demand with the virus still raging.

24-FEB-2020 :: a “V- shaped” recovery #COVID19 is a FANTASY

World Of Finance

Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets

All of the big gains in Erdogan's first term in office have been wiped out in his 5th term in office @RencapMan

Law & Politics

August 13, 2018 And then ‘’Even if they got dollars, we got ‘our people, our God’’’ [In the markets that is called a ‘’Hail Mary’’ pass]

World Currencies

04.09.2018 no-one except die-hard Erdogan-supporting Turkish nationalists is prepared to throw good money after money gone bad on the basis of Erdogan's hocus pocus monetary policy Mr. Satchu told Sputnik.

Law & Politics

Often overlooked due to low % of GDP ~6%, but the elephant in the room for Turkey's econ was lack of tourism rev's as one of few unfortunate points beyond policy. @akcakmak

Tourism, Travel & Transport

Transport & travel historically financed HALF of ex T&T current account deficit and were down by ~90% post-Covid.

10-MAY-2020 :: For example Tourism – I believe it is stopped out through Q4 2021

Tourism, Travel & Transport

India leads the world in the daily average number of new deaths reported, accounting for one in every 20 deaths reported worldwide each day @ReutersGraphics

Misc.

#COVID19 and the Spillover Moment

World Of Finance

Sub Saharan Africa

Africa

.@UNCTAD just released Economic Development in Africa Report 2020 estimates illicit financial flows out of Africa are costing the continent $89 billion annually. @VOANews

Africa

The economists say the scale and scope of illicit capital flight, which is equivalent to 3.7 percent of Africa’s gross domestic product, and the economic consequence of COVID-19, threaten to reverse gains made in health, education and other areas.

Nigerian Vice President, Oluyemi Osinbajo warned that the illicit financial flows out of Africa also undermine the foundations of democracy, provide financial incentives for terrorist activities, and fuel conflict on the continent.

"The enormity of efforts required to tackle illicit financial flows is evidenced in the many dimensions the scourge presents itself," he said by video conference from Lagos, Nigeria.

"It manifests through harmful tax policies and practices, abusive transfer pricing, trade mispricing and mis-invoicing, legal exploitation of natural resources, as well as official corruption and organized crime.

UNCTAD reports the annual $89 billion outflow from Africa nearly matches the combined total annual inflows of official development assistance and foreign direct investment.

UNCTAD Secretary General, Mukhisa Kituyi said Africa needs an estimated $200 billion a year to achieve the SDGs, but only about half that amount is available.

He said illicit financial flows represent a major drain on capital and revenues in Africa and this puts development prospects on the continent at risk.

"Countries with high illicit financial flows invest about 25 percent less in health, 58 percent less in education than comparable countries on the continent," Kituyi said.

"And, half of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa do not have sufficiently developed domestic transfer pricing rules and regulations in their jurisprudence."

That, Kituyi said, is a handicap for governments that have limited capacity to challenge multi-national enterprises in their domestic courts on these illegal practices.

The report finds tackling capital flight and illicit financial flows would provide a large potential source of money to finance investments in infrastructure, education, health and productive capacity.

UNCTAD economists said curbing illicit capital flight could generate enough capital by 2030 to finance nearly half of the $2.4 trillion needed by sub-Saharan African countries for climate change adaptation

CoViD19-ΛFЯICΛ : #OpenData Made in Africa @NCoVAfrica

Africa

Update - Sept 29, 2020 - 09:45 AM

Confirmed: 1 466 178 (+ 5763)

Actives: 219 040 (+ 32)

Deaths: 35 459 (+ 294)

Recoveries: 1 210 251 (+ 5437)

Year of the Virus

World Of Finance

The continent’s case fatality count stands at 2.4%, with roughly 35,000 deaths among the more than 1.4 million people reported infected with COVID-19, In North America, it is 2.9% and in Europe 4.5% @Reuters.

Africa

Hard-hit countries such as Italy and Britain have recorded fatality counts of 11.6% and 9.0% respectively, compared to 1.6% for Ethiopia, 1.9% for Nigeria and 2.4% for South Africa, the continent’s worst affected country.

Some scientists also are exploring the possibility that a tuberculosis vaccine routinely given to children in many African countries might be helping reduce deaths from COVID-19.

Another theory being considered is whether prior exposure to other coronaviruses including those that cause the common cold has provided a degree of resistance in some of the very communities once thought to be most vulnerable.

“There is a lot of circumstantial evidence,” Salim Abdool Karim, a South African infectious disease specialist who has advised the government on COVID-19, told Reuters, “but there is no smoking gun.”

“We got the gift of time,” said Thumbi Mwangi, senior research fellow at the University of Nairobi’s Institute of Tropical and Infectious Diseases. “We had an amount of preparation that others did not.”

One reason could be that international travel is limited in many African countries, and travelling domestically can be more difficult than on other continents, Matshidiso Moeti, WHO regional director for Africa, told a news conference on Thursday.

The continent’s governments have also battled deadly infectious diseases such as Ebola, which killed more than 11,000 people in West Africa in 2013-16.

So officials took notice when the new coronavirus started spreading around the globe rapidly early this year.

Many African countries were quick to introduce screening at airports, suspend flights from heavily affected nations and enforce social distancing measures and mask wearing.

“Africa brought down the hammer earlier in terms of coronavirus lockdowns,” said Tim Bromfield, regional director for East and Southern Africa at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, a U.K.-based think tank.

A 2019 United Nations report said 62% of sub-Saharan Africa’s population was under 25 and just 3% 65 or over. In the U.N.’s Europe and North America region, 28% were under 25 while 18% were age 65 and up.

Scientists in several countries including South Africa are testing whether the century-old Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine, widely used on the continent against tuberculosis, provides a degree of cross-protection.

BCG vaccines have been shown to protect against other viral respiratory illnesses, and a study published in the scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in July found that countries with higher vaccination rates for tuberculosis had lower peak mortality rates from COVID-19.

There is some evidence that T cells developed by the body’s immune system after exposure to other common cold coronaviruses could help fight off COVID-19.

“I would say that is at least a plausible explanation as to why there are different levels of resistance to the virus in different populations,” said Thomas Scriba, an immunologist and deputy director of the South African Tuberculosis Vaccine Initiative.

Others are more sceptical.

“All other regions have been exposed to coronaviruses, have poor people and slums and have received BCG vaccination,” said Humphrey Karamagi, team leader for data and analytics at the WHO’s Africa office. “We are most probably looking at a mix of multiple factors working together - and not a single magic bullet.”

For Sam Agatre Okuonzi, from the Arua Regional Referral Hospital in Uganda, the doomsday predictions were informed by entrenched prejudices, including that the continent is prone to disease.

“COVID-19 has shattered a lot of biases about disease in general but also about Africa,” he told Thursday’s briefing. “The severity of the pandemic has not played out in line with the outrageous predictions.”

#China says talks with #Angola on debt moratorium still ongoing. 'To my knowledge, relevant Chinese financial institutions have been in close communication with the Angolan side on relieving debt pressure, with major progress in discussions.' @Markbohlun

Africa

China Africa Win Win

Africa

#Zambia told Eurobond investors yesterday it wants to complete a debt restructuring and agree an #IMF bailout by April. That's a tall order @PaulWallace123

Africa

#Zambia told Eurobond investors yesterday it wants to complete a debt restructuring and agree an #IMF bailout by April. That's a tall order, especially with elections scheduled for August and the government likely reluctant to commit to much austerity.

December 9, 2019 They are still popping Quaaludes in Lusaka.

Africa

14-OCT-2019 :: It seems to me that we are at a pivot moment and we can keep regurgitating the same old Mantras like a stuck record and if we do that this turns Ozymandias

Africa

The South African economy shed 2,2 million jobs in Q2:2020. @StatsSA

Africa

Debt, virus and locusts create a perfect storm for Africa @TheAfricaReport

Africa

#Mozambique benefits from Paris Club debt-service suspension initiative (DSSI) relief. @ZitamarNews H/T @Markbohlund

Africa

In application of the term sheet of the Debt service suspension Initiative (DSSI) also endorsed by the G20, the Paris Club recognized that the Republic of Mozambique is eligible to benefit from the initiative.

Therefore, the representatives of the Paris Club Creditor Countries have accepted to provide to the Republic of Mozambique a time-bound suspension of debt service due from 1st May to 31st December 2020.

Central bank of #Angola keeps policy rate unchanged at 15.5% amid rising inflation and #USDAOA weakness. @NKCAfrica

Africa

South Africa All Share Bloomberg

Africa

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 16.965

World Currencies

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 15.765

World Currencies

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg

Africa

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg

Africa

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg

Africa

Pandemic spurs Africa's mobile telcos to ramp up banking bid @Reuters

Africa

When COVID-19 hit Ivory Coast, Bonaventure Kra, who works at an import-export business, began to worry. Handling hard cash all day was a risk. Queuing in crowded bank branches exposed him to infection.

Then, in the midst of the pandemic, French telecommunications giant Orange ORAN.PA launched an entirely digital bank - its first full banking venture in Africa.

“Going back to cash would be like travelling back in time,” Kra said in the country’s commercial capital, Abidjan. “I intend to use it permanently.”

Africa’s mobile phone operators are ramping up plans to bring banking to millions of Africans, in some cases for the first time, after the coronavirus crisis caused a surge in use of digital financial services.

Orange, MTN MTNJ.J, Telkom TKGJ.J and Vodacom VODJ.J are lowering fees, rolling out new lending services ahead of schedule, and expanding mobile payment networks with the aim of finally denting the so-far unshakeable dominance of cash.

“It’s one of those industries that we consider to be ripe for disruption,” Sibusiso Ngwenya, financial services managing executive at South Africa’s Telkom, told Reuters.

With their revenue under threat as governments cap data prices and customers abandon voice phone services for free messaging apps, telcos have sought to leverage their reach into remote villages and urban shanty towns in a pivot to banking.

The global health crisis has been an unexpected catalyst, with some African governments releasing COVID-19 stimulus grants via mobile money platforms and central banks easing regulations, including limits on mobile transactions.

Orange added over five million new customers for its mobile money services in April and May alone. MTN hit one million South African users in June, when it had expected half of this, and recorded a 28% jump in mobile money transactions per minute across all its African markets in the first half of the year.

TAKING ON THE CASH KING

Cash is still king in Africa.

It accounts for around 99% of transactions in Nigeria, the continent’s most populous country, and dominates even in South Africa (90-95%) where banking penetration is relatively high, according to a 2017 estimate from consulting firm McKinsey.

World Bank figures indicate just under 43% of sub-Saharan Africans over the age of 15 had a bank account in 2017. The region’s total population stood around 1.1 billion last year.

That compared with 55% in Latin America and the Caribbean, almost 70% in South Asia and around 74% in East Asia and the Pacific.

That presents a huge opportunity, said Francois Jurd de Girancourt, head of McKinsey’s financial institutions practice Africa.

Prior to the crisis, it rated the continent as the world’s No.2 market in terms of growth and profitability potential with banking revenues set to hit $129 billion by 2023.

Telcos are well-positioned to secure a piece of that pie.

By last year, sub-Saharan Africa boasted 469 million mobile money accounts - more than any other region in the world - according to industry body GSMA.

Mobile phone penetration outstrips access to banks. Operators’ distribution models are low-cost.

And telcos possess a wealth of customer data they can use to assess lending risk, a big advantage in a region where most markets lack credit bureaus.

Vodacom, the African unit of Britain's Vodafone VOD.L, is now moving to expand lending, insurance and payment businesses currently available only in South Africa to other markets.

It has advanced by months launches of initiatives like overdrafts for the mobile money agents that work on its behalf, helping customers open accounts and withdraw and deposit cash.

It has also accelerated plans for cash advances to merchants at registered pay points, its financial services CEO Mariam Cassim told Reuters.

Orange has Mali, Burkina Faso, and Senegal in its sights as expansion markets for Orange Bank Africa, with the timetable dependent upon local regulatory approval.

Both MTN and Telkom, meanwhile, are preparing to offer micro-loans in South Africa, the companies said.

MTN, Africa’s largest operator, will roll out a mobile money offering for businesses, which is currently being piloted in Rwanda, to other markets by the end of the year. It will also pilot an initiative to digitise cash-heavy small businesses in South Africa, namely small shops known as spazas and often located in townships, executives told Reuters.

And after growing the number of vendors accepting payment via its platform by 100,000 in the first half of the year, it has now doubled an end-2021 target to 1 million.

“We are ... using the opportunity that the crisis is offering us to really accelerate,” said Serigne Dioum, who heads MTN’s mobile financial services division.

‘NO LOSERS’

Mobile operators still have a long way to go to overtake traditional lenders.

Banking revenue pools in sub-Saharan Africa stood around $70 billion in 2019, according to a McKinsey estimate, while the main mobile operators earned less than $3 billion from financial services.

Some regulators remain wary of mobile money, and many informal businesses still don’t accept digital payments.

Such factors mean mobile money adoption varies wildly across the continent. Cash use actually rose in some countries during the pandemic.

M-Pesa, run by Vodacom unit Safaricom SCOM.NR, dominates the financial system in Kenya.

But both MTN and M-Pesa have in the past been forced to drop mobile money initiatives in South Africa after struggling to attract customers.

“You need a massive market share to be making a lot of money just from payments,” said McKinsey’s Jurd de Girancourt, adding that telcos will need customers to use other services too.

“It’s fine if you are M-Pesa. But we’re probably not going to see that,” he said.

Big banks, historically deterred by low incomes and poor infrastructure, are also fighting back and pushing into underserved segments.

They are agreeing partnerships with fintech firms, building their own networks of agents to distribute banking services and launching rival offerings.

They also partner with telcos, marrying their vast balance sheets with the mobile firms’ wide customer bases.

South African lender Absa ABGJ.J is set to launch partnerships with mobile operators in Tanzania and Uganda, its head of retail banking in Africa Vimal Kumar told Reuters.

Absa is also expanding its Kenyan digital offering to cover full-service banking with roll-outs in Zambia, Botswana and Mauritius set for later this year and the rest of its markets in 2021.

“There is no loser,” Kumar said. “The opportunity is so large that no one player is going to be able to dominate.”

Arundhati Roy: 'The pandemic is a portal' @FT

Misc.

The Way We Live Now

Africa

.@AbsaKenya share data

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya

Africa

Press release: Monetary Policy Committee meeting @CBKKenya

Kenyan Economy

89% of hotels surveyed now open, compared to 35% in May Exports of goods +0.8% in Jan-Aug 2020 from Jan-Aug 2019 & remittances +6.6%. However service exports -22.4% @MihrThakar

Tourism, Travel & Transport

Banks NPL ratio up to 13.6% in Aug from 13.1% in June Private sector credit growth +8.3% in the 12 months to Aug

Kenya: Banks restructured loans worth Shs 1.12 trillion or 38% of the total loan book by end of August. @moneyacademyKE

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Jubilee Insurance Company Ltd.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Par Value: 5/-

Closing Price: 220.00

Total Shares Issued: 72472950.00

Market Capitalization: 15,944,049,000

EPS: 49.07

PE: 4.483

HY Earnings 2020

HY Gross Written Premium 20.225097b versus 20.713789b

HY Net Insurance Premium 10.149984b versus 9.566028b

HY Other Revenue 3.802522b versus 4.067355b

HY Total Income 13.952506b versus 13.633383b

Net Insurance Benefits and Claims [8.6117816b] versus [9.0058216b]

HY Group Profit before Tax 2.376788b versus 2.267399b

HY Net Profit 1.830475b versus 1.8314136b

HY EPS 21.94 versus 21.72

Interim dividend 1

Conclusions

FY Net Insurance Premium Revenue 19.489b versus 17.249b

FY Other Revenue 13.339b versus 10.690b +24.78%

FY Total income 32.829b versus 27.939b

FY Net Insurance benefits and claims [19.726b] versus [15.929b]

FY Total Expenses and commissions [9.083b] versus [8.011b]

FY Result of Operating Activities 4.018b versus 3.998b

FY Share of Results of Associates 988.521m versus 1.339b

FY Profit before Tax 5.007b versus 5.338b

FY Profit after Tax 4.017b versus 4.126b

FY EPS 49.07 versus 51.83

Increase in Cash Equivalents [2.172b]

Cash and cash Equivalents 15.019b versus 17.187b

FY Total Assets 130b +14%

The Directors recommend, declare and approve a final dividend of Kes.8 per share, subject to withholding tax where applicable making the total dividend for the year of Kes. 9 per share or 180% (2018:180%).

GWP DA 38.2b +10%

Jubilee Holdings Limited - Cautionary Notice. @tradingroomke

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Jubilee Holdings has entered into binding agreements to sell down their majority stakes in their subsidiaries running short term general businesses (property and casualty) in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi and Mauritius.

Allianz Group is expected to acquire equity stakes of between 51%-66% for consideration of KES 10.8bn of which KES 7.75bn will be received by Jubilee Holdings Limited Group.

We believe the transaction is being carried out at between 3.0-4.0x price to book, and Jubilee Holdings shareholders will receive about KES 106.94 per share. We expect the funds to be used for dividend payment or reinvestment in Life business.

In the deal, @Allianz will acquire a controlling stake in @JubileeInsKE 's property & casualty business in Kenya, Tanzania & Uganda and the short-term insurance in Burundi and Mauritius for USD 100 million. @bankelele .

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Jubilee Chair Nizar Juma said these General insurance companies represent 12.3 percent of JHL’s total consolidated net assets of Sh32.3 billion as at 30 June 2020. @MaudhuiHouse

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Also, @JubileeInsKE will acquire the business of @Allianz in Kenya to draw on its global expertise in retail, digital insurance, and micro-insurance. @bankelele .

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment