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Friday 18th of September 2020
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Well, another one bites the dust and folds. BOE is exploring negative rates. ECB, BOJ, BOE, RNZ, SNB...eventually it will be the Fed too. But meanwhile, currency debasement wars clearly aren't dead...@RaoulGMI
World Of Finance
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Conclusions
I expect -4.00% in 24 months.
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MPC had been briefed “on the Bank of England’s plans to explore how a negative Bank Rate could be implemented effectively, should the outlook for inflation and output warrant it at some point during this period of low equilibrium rates.”
World Of Finance
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The BoE said the Monetary Policy Committee had been briefed “on the Bank of England’s plans to explore how a negative Bank Rate could be implemented effectively, should the outlook for inflation and output warrant it at some point during this period of low equilibrium rates.”
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Zero rates through 2023 is not an expression of strength. It's an admission how fragile the entire construct is. @NorthmanTrader
World Of Finance
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The BOE is discussing neg. rates, the ECB remains deep in negative territory & the Fed at 0 for 4 years.
None could even raise a 1/4 pt or everything would collapse.
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Drinking the Kool-Aid
World Of Finance
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The Three Witches
Africa
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First Witch
When shall we three meet again?
In thunder, lightning, or in rain?
Second Witch
When the hurly-burly’s done,
When the battle’s lost and won.
Third Witch
That will be ere the set of sun.
First Witch
Where the place?
Second Witch
Upon the heath.
Third Witch
There to meet with Macbeth.
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"Love demands patience, desire is restless; What color shall I paint the heart, until you savage it? You shall not ignore me when the time comes, I know, but I may turn to dust before the news reaches you." - Ghalib
Africa
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O rosebud of my longing, your palms adorned with henna #Ghalib @FarooqiMehr
Africa
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Ay ghunchah-e tamanna ya‘nī kaf-e nigārīn
Dil dē to ham batā den muthī men tērī kyā hai
O rosebud of my longing, your palms adorned with henna,
If you give back my heart, I will tell you,
What you hold in your fist
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Dud-e shama’-e kushtah (smoke from a snuffed candle) is one of Ghalib’s favorite poetic expressions about the “unspoken” or voiceless thoughts that remain in limbo because they are snuffed or choked or silenced. #Ghalib@FarooqiMehr
Misc.
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A Luminous and Fairy Tale Feel
World Of Finance
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No one knows the inner self of another person; #Ghalib @FarooqiMehr
Misc.
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Koi agah nahin batin-e ham digar se
Hai har ek fard jahan men varaq-e nakhvandah
No one knows the inner self of another person;
Every individual in the world is an unread page
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Kabir Rumi and Ghalib compared
Misc.
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Djinns [The Quran says that the Djinn are made of a smokeless and "scorching fire", They are usually invisible to humans, but humans do appear clearly to Djinn, as they can possess them]
Africa
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Djinns [The Quran says that the Djinn are made of a smokeless and "scorching fire", They are usually invisible to humans, but humans do appear clearly to Djinn, as they can possess them. DJinn have the power to travel large distances at extreme speeds and are thought to live in remote areas - so now You Know]
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The jinn are ambivalent beings capable of good and evil. Some however are forces of chaos with the power to wreak havoc. One such jinn is the Red Wind, Al Ahmar A thread on the Jinn King of Mars @aaolomi
Africa
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The jinn are ambivalent beings capable of good and evil. Some however are forces of chaos with the power to wreak havoc. One such jinn is the Red Wind, Al Ahmar who brings plagues, leads magical armies, and grants untold power.
A thread on the Jinn King of Mars
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Al Ahmar is a force of great chaos, though technically part of the ordered hierarchy of angels and jinn @aaolomi
Africa
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Al Ahmar is a force of great chaos, though technically part of the ordered hierarchy of angels and jinn, he has simultaneously fought against the wicked jinn alongside the angels and led the armies of Iblis’ shaiytan against humans.
His realm is Marrikh or Mars
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He relishes in chaos and war and will switch sides so long as he can fight. @aaolomi
Africa
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He is considered the most unreliable of the kings. It is said that in the end of days, he will fight alongside the forces of the devil, but for now remains in the ordered kingdoms of the jinn sultans.
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Traditionally linked to war and bloodshed, his mere presences increases temperatures, agitates the spirit, and causes strife. @aaolomi
Africa
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Sudden feelings of restlessness are attributed to one of his jinn servants being present.
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His lieutenant Suhil or Sughil is said to appear as a chaotic wind that tears things apart swiftly then vanishes. @aaolomi
Africa
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The planetary spirit linked to him is Semey’il and Al Buni says the angel watching over him is Shamsama’il
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Because of his chaotic presence, Al Ahmar is invoked with a series of intense bindings. @aaolomi
Africa
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He must be constrained by the angel of Mars, another higher ranked angel, two Name of God, and a secret letter interlocked together while intoned over and over again in a meditative state.
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Only through these precautions can he be managed. @aaolomi
Africa
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He is most associated with a type of hot wind thus earning him the title, the Red Wind. In the traditions of Morocco, Egypt, & Sudan, Al Ahmar is the wind which possesses women bringing about illnesses of the blood and womb. @aaolomi
Africa
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In such instances he must be driven out with prayer
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In turn Al Ahmar is often called upon in difficult exorcism rites as he can grab the offending jinn by the hair and drag it out. @aaolomi
Africa
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The deadliest of Al Ahmar’s associations is with the plague. It is traditionally believed that plagues can be caused by some jinn who generally fall under the domain of Al Ahmar or Muharriq. @aaolomi
Africa
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Year of the Virus
World Of Finance
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This type of plague is caused by “ta’n” or poisoned arrows slung by the jinn causing fevers and overheating of the body. @aaolomi
Africa
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These types of illnesses were usually respiratory and blood oriented.
The role of Al Ahmar in such diseases is linked to times of the day. He’s said to be his most dangerous at high noon, while at nighttime he becomes more of a stalking force.
While a deeply chaotic force he is not inherently evil, simply dangerous like fire—it can serve a purpose or rage.
Many of the stories of Al Ahmar are important points of consideration.
The names of the angels and spirits associated with him hint to perhaps a cross-cultural intellectual exchange given the etymological connection with the Jewish Samael.
Fire and heat’s connection with the plague gesture to the medical theories of the Islamic world while other stories particularly detailing his relationships are likely astrological in nature.
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Fort Jesus Mombasa
Africa
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Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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Never-neverland: Taiwan has had only 7 deaths/500 cases during the pandemic, a new export record last month and stock market record high yesterday. Today its central bank *raised* its growth target for this year to 1.6% @heguisen
Africa
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Never-neverland: Taiwan has had only 7 deaths/500 cases during the pandemic, a new export record last month and stock market record high yesterday. Today its central bank *raised* its growth target for this year to 1.6% in a year of global recession.
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TAIWAN DEFENCE MINISTRY SAYS MULTIPLE CHINESE JETS CROSSED MID LINE OF TAIWAN STRAIT ON FRIDAY @FirstSquawk
Law & Politics
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward it has come to a Put Up or Shut Up moment Matters India Taiwan South China Sea et al
Law & Politics
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7 Day Rolling Average Daily confirmed #COVID19 cases @OurWorldInData @redouad
Misc.
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The exponential moment is still in front of us. #COVID19
Misc.
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India leads the world in the daily average number of new infections reported, accounting for one in every 32 infections reported worldwide each day @ReutersGraphics
Asia
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#COVID19 and the Spillover Moment
Misc.
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“It’s not just about who’s dying right now. The health impacts accumulate over time.” @_HannahRitchie @newscientist
Misc.
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Experts say the pandemic’s effect on mortality will be long lasting. “The health impacts will carry on much longer, possibly years down the line,” says @_HannahRitchie
“It’s not just about who’s dying right now. The health impacts accumulate over time.”
Conclusions
This is a Point that is lost in CFR debate
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It's not surprising that testing is running into issues as SARS-CoV-2 transmission is increasing, because a gradually expanding testing capacity is competing with an exponentially growing epidemic. @AdamJKucharski
Misc.
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If transmission isn't slowed down, it's inevitable will lose track of cases.
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Coronavirus is exponential, non linear and multiplicative.
Misc.
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Why did the president knowingly mislead America about the coronavirus threat? @kylegriffin1
Law & Politics
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US is still not managing to test enough – doing much worse than Togo, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, or Latvia – is hard to believe. But that’s the reality, even after 9 months of this pandemic. @MaxCRoser
Law & Politics
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Whoever Controls the Narrative Controls The World
World Of Finance
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It certainly feels like a decade of "semiotic arousal" when everything, it seemed, was a sign, a harbinger of some future radical disjuncture or cataclysmic upheaval.
World Of Finance
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International Markets
World Of Finance
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Revision of @OECD growth forecasts for 2020 is v. interesting. In general they are better. In China & US case much better. Exception is India, which is increasingly looking like an economic disaster. @SoberLook @adam_tooze
World Of Finance
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The accelerated growth was "a fantastically crafted fiction," according to Prasad, Blood and Soil in @narendramodi's India @NewYorker
Misc.
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1841
Dollar Index 92.863
Japan Yen 104.56
Swiss Franc 0.9084
Pound 1.2968
Aussie 0.7314
India Rupee 73.444
South Korea Won 1160.89
Brazil Real 5.2399
Egypt Pound 15.7611
South Africa Rand 16.158
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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid Conclusions $DXY < 90.00
World Of Finance
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$DXY sub 92 is coming whether u like it or not @asegpi 92.878
World Currencies
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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid Conclusions Euro 1.25
World Currencies
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Euro versus the Dollar Chart 1.1865
World Currencies
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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#Gold is really wound up tightly. Middle of its rising channel, coiled into a symmetrical triangle (pennant), upper bound of bull flag, sitting right at anchored VWAP, with daily RSI sitting ~50. @FibLines 1954.00
Commodities
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Price is setting up for a move & probabilities favor upside, imo.
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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid Conclusions Gold $2,200+
Commodities
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Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 41.22
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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August 13, 2018 And then ‘’Even if they got dollars, we got ‘our people, our God’’’ [In the markets that is called a ‘’Hail Mary’’ pass]
Emerging Markets
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Lira not getting a break. 7.54 per $. @FercanY
World Currencies
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04.09.2018 no-one except die-hard Erdogan-supporting Turkish nationalists is prepared to throw good money after money gone bad on the basis of Erdogan's hocus pocus monetary policy Mr. Satchu told Sputnik.
World Currencies
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President of Guinea beating up a Minister who stole covid funds! Stealing is violence!! @ziyarara
Africa
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South Sudan President Fires Finance Minister Amid Looming Economic Meltdown @VOANews
Africa
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WASHINGTON - South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit fired longtime Finance Minister Salvatore Garang Mabiordit Wol in an executive order read on national television Wednesday.
Mabiordit is the eighth finance minister dismissed by Kiir since 2011. The country’s new finance minister is Athian Diing Athian.
Kiir also fired Erjok Bullen, acting commissioner of the National Revenue Authority, and Chol Deng Thon Abel, head of the Nile Petroleum Corporation, or Nilepet, the country’s institution overseeing oil production.
Jok Madut Jok, co-founder and former director of the Juba-based Sudd Institute, said changing ministers will not solve the country’s economic crisis.
"But it is not just about changing faces," he said. “It is particularly about building institutions of the nation. If it were a nation where institutions count, there is no way we can be convinced if so-and-so steals money. And yet at the end of the day, they walk away with their misdeeds and mistakes."
No paychecks since April
Mabiordit said last week his ministry did not have the money to pay government workers who have been waiting for paychecks since April.
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We are staring into the abyss of a Zombie Apocalypse #COVID19
Africa
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#COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa
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The era of economic incompetence began in 2015 and the Kwacha began its sharp decline. @HHichilema
Africa
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December 9, 2019 They are still popping Quaaludes in Lusaka.
Africa
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South Africa GDP in the second quarter fell almost a fifth year on year, a plunge so large that the level of real GDP fell to 2007 levels. @jsphctrl @adam_tooze
Africa
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14-OCT-2019 :: It seems to me that we are at a pivot moment and we can keep regurgitating the same old Mantras like a stuck record and if we do that this turns Ozymandias
Africa
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December 9, 2019 Time to Big Up the Dosage of Quaaludes
Africa
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SouthAfrica Sarb keeps policy rate unchanged at 3.5% despite expectations of a deeper economic slump and lower inflation pressures. @NKCAfrica
Africa
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
Africa
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Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 16.1868
World Currencies
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 15.7655
Africa
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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Is @NSE_PLC seriously projecting events in one day's trading as a major reversal of a prolonged trend of calling stock prices, declining volumes and exit of investors? @wazua @Sang252
N.S.E General
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I was thinking about that - seems that is precisely what they are saying @KipronoKittony
N.S.E General
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 108.35
World Currencies
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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Every Listed Share Can Be Interrogated Here
N.S.E General
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