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Monday 21st of September 2020
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Quote from Gone with the Wind @rivatez
Misc.
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7 JAN 19 :: V.S. Naipaul, in A Bend in the River wrote “It isn’t that there’s no right and wrong here. There’s no right.”
Misc.
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Bond Market '''Move Volatility'' all time low @biancoresearch
World Of Finance
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US 10-Year Treasury Yield...@charliebilello
World Of Finance
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September 1980: 11.6%
September 1985: 10.4%
September 1990: 8.9%
September 1995: 6.2%
September 2000: 5.9%
September 2005: 4.3%
September 2010: 2.8%
September 2015: 2.2%
September 2020: 0.7%
Conclusions
The Direction of Travel is obvious.
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Home Thoughts
Africa
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Our Future is greater than our Past Ben Okri
Africa
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18-FEB-2019 :: We dream of a new politics That will renew the world Under their weary suspicious gaze. There's always a new way, A better way that's not been tried before.
Law & Politics
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Kund, Malir, #Balochistan ❤ Via Khan Ahmar @DanyalGilani
Misc.
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A Luminous and Fairy Tale Feel
World Of Finance
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A mesmerizing evening in Murree Deciduous tree Evergreen tree Cloud PC: Irshad Shaikh @DanyalGilani
Misc.
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Composite image of the surface of Venus, - taken by the Russian probe Venera 13 in 1982. @ddoniolvalcroze
Misc.
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Coronavirus burial in northern Uganda, September 2020. @sallyhayd
Africa
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Political Reflections
Law & Politics
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“It felt like Kushner was the president. He sat in the chair and he was clearly making the decisions.” @VanityFair
Law & Politics
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China's MFA, PLA announced today they no longer recognize the (tacit) median line in the Taiwan Strait. @JMichaelCole1
Law & Politics
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This constitutes dangerous escalation and markedly increases risks of accident.
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China's MFA PLA announced today they no longer recognize the (tacit) median line in the Taiwan Strait. @JMichaelCole1
Law & Politics
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This constitutes dangerous escalation and markedly increases risks of accident.
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward it has come to a Put Up or Shut Up moment Matters India Taiwan South China Sea et al
Law & Politics
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Thanks for clarifying. @adrianzenz
Law & Politics
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02-JUN-2020 :: Fast Forward The Markets are very complacent about A US China ‘’Hot War’’
Law & Politics
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315,919 new cases of coronavirus worldwide, the biggest one-day increase so far, according to WHO. 6,037 new deaths @BNODesk
Misc.
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Heatmap shows the trend of daily growth in confirmed cases for some major countries. Hungary has the highest 3-day growth rate in the group, while Mexico has the highest hit ratio @ExanteData
Misc.
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The exponential moment is still in front of us. #COVID19
Misc.
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#COVID19 Worldwide, by geographic region Europe (> EU) and Asia seeing growths in cases and deaths. The increase in cases in Europe is exponential Asia's numbers are dominated by India @Marco_Piani
Misc.
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#COVID19 Worldwide, by geographic region Europe (> EU) and Asia seeing growths in cases and deaths. The increase in cases in Europe is exponential and is not driven only by more tests. Asia's numbers are dominated by India
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Year of the Virus
World Of Finance
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The 15 countries listed here currently have the highest positive rates in the world, and are likely missing a lot of cases. @redouad
Misc.
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Covid-19 as share of deaths by age group @RCAFDM
Misc.
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John Donne wrote: "... Therefore, send not to know for whom the bell tolls, It tolls for thee..."
Misc.
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COVID Deaths: We see that Paraguay, Lebanon, and Jamaica had fresh peaks today (denoted by red bars) but Brazil and India have shown the greatest acceleration in deaths w-o-w. @ExanteData
Misc.
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"“I'm going to scream if I have to explain the fact that many viruses have cleavage sites,” says Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University." Right, many, but the one in SARS2 is very special..@Rossana38510044
Misc.
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It is impossible to ignore the introduction of a PRRA insert between S1 and S2: it sticks out like a splinter. This insert creates the furin cleavage site
Misc.
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ASTRAZENECA SAYS 2ND COVID-19 VACCINE TRIAL VOLUNTEER SUFFERING FROM UNEXPLAINED NEUROLOGICAL ILLNESS, UNKNOWN IF CAUSED FROM THE VACCINE @FirstSquawk
Misc.
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No-one has ever produced a safe and effective vaccine against a coronavirus. Birger Sørensen, Angus Dalgleish & Andres Susrud
Misc.
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Useful and accessible BMJ article about the way immunity may be shaping the COVID epidemic, acknowledging the many unknowns: @graemein
Misc.
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International Markets
World Of Finance
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Tourists walk along beautiful river. China’s economy today is undoubtedly the strongest in the world. @HuXijin_GT
Tourism, Travel & Transport
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Drinking the Kool-Aid
World Of Finance
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“Everybody, everybody everywhere, has his own movie going, his own scenario, and everybody is acting his movie out like mad, only most people don’t know that is what they’re trapped by, their little script.” ― Tom Wolfe, The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
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Euro 1.1865
Dollar Index 92.786
Japan Yen 104.32
Swiss Franc 0.9099
Pound 1.2951
Aussie 0.7320
India Rupee 73.369
South Korea Won 1158.71
Brazil Real 5.3979
Egypt Pound 15.7232
South Africa Rand 16.2800
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$DXY: US Dollar 5-Day Chart: See Chart. @FXPIPTITAN 92.786
World Currencies
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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid Conclusions $DXY < 90.00
World Currencies
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$EURUSD Daily Chart: See Chart. @FXPIPTITAN 1.1865
World Currencies
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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid Conclusions Euro 1.25
World Currencies
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Large UK property funds are keeping trading suspensions in place because of fears that low cash buffers and regulatory uncertainty could trigger an investor run. @FT.
RealEstate, Housing & Construction
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All of the UK’s major commercial property funds suspended trading in March, trapping close to £22bn of investor money, after the coronavirus-induced halt in economic activity made it difficult to value real estate.
Yet while three investment managers — St James’s Place, Columbia Threadneedle and most recently L&G — have announced they will reopen their property funds, most others remain suspended as groups weigh whether they will be able to cope with redemption requests on reopening.
A chief concern is that UK regulatory proposals, which are designed to prevent fund liquidity mismatches by introducing longer redemption notice periods, could have the opposite effect by encouraging investors to withdraw en masse before the rules come into force.
This risk, which could ultimately lead funds to suspend again, is compounded by the low cash balances of some property funds. Aegon Asset Management’s fund holds cash equivalent to 7.3 per cent of its portfolio, while M&G’s holds 8.2 per cent. This compares to 24.4 per cent and 18.5 per cent held by L&G and Columbia Threadneedle’s funds respectively.
“Property managers will be fearful that just when they are ready to reopen they lurch straight into another crisis brought about by the potential rule change,” said Ryan Hughes, head of active portfolios at AJ Bell. He warned an investor exodus could lead to a “liquidity death spiral” as managers try to sell assets in an uncertain market.
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Gold Key: above the cloud "In Buy" below "In Sell" @flyingstocksman 1952.00
Commodities
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27-JUL-2020 :: Drinking the Kool-Aid Conclusions Gold $2,200+
Commodities
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Crude Oil 6 Month Chart INO 41.00
Minerals, Oil & Energy
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Explore the FinCEN Files data via @ICIJorg
Africa
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“How I got here — now that is a surprise,” he said with a wry smile, in a jailhouse interview this past week, with two Rwandan government officials in the room. “I was actually not coming here.” @nytimes
Africa
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Foremost among those critics is Mr. Rusesabagina, who leveraged his celebrity as the world’s most famous Rwandan to launch scathing attacks on Mr. Kagame, gradually transforming from activist to opponent to, as the government now alleges, a supporter of armed struggle.
Mr. Rusesabagina was a leader of a coalition of opposition groups, all in exile, that includes an armed wing. In an address to those groups in 2018, recorded in a video now widely circulated by the government, Mr. Rusesabagina says that politics has failed in Rwanda. “The time for us has come to use any means possible to bring about change,” he said. “It is time to attempt our last resort.”
From prison, he said his group’s role was not fighting, but “diplomacy” to represent the millions of Rwandan refugees and exiles.
“We are not a terrorist organization,” he said.
Experts say his situation is emblematic of Rwanda under Mr. Kagame: As the ruling party totally dominates the political space, some exiled opponents have turned to more extreme measures.
“Coming on the heels of something as horrific as 1994, foreigners often want to paint the situation in black and white, good and bad, with heroes and demons,” said Anna Cave, a former National Security Council director for African Affairs under President Barack Obama. “But it’s more nuanced today. There are a lot of shades of gray.”
In an interview, Rwanda’s spy chief gleefully described how Mr. Rusesabagina had fallen for an elaborate ruse, involving a private jet from Dubai, that he called “flawless.” Human Rights Watch called it illegal, a “forced disappearance.”
Mr. Rusesabagina, speaking in jail, said he believed he had been flying to Burundi. His family insists that he cannot speak freely.
“With guns around him, he’s saying that in the belly of the beast,” said his son, Trésor Rusesabagina, 28, speaking from the United States. “And the beast can bite at any time.”
“An island of fear in a sea of fire,” Mr. Rusesabagina once called it.
November 2005, the pro-government New Times published a series of articles attacking the hotelier. “A man who sold the soul of the Rwandan Genocide to amass medals” read one article.
Months later, Mr. Kagame delivered his own broadside. Rwanda had no need for “manufactured” heroes “made in Europe or America,” he said.
Mr. Rusesabagina published a memoir, “An Ordinary Man,” that contained sharp criticisms of Mr. Kagame’s Rwanda —
“A nation governed by and for the benefit of a small group of elite Tutsis,” he wrote. The few Hutus in power were “known locally as Hutus de service, or ‘Hutus for hire.’”
Over six months, the New Times published 21 articles with headlines like “Rusesabagina’s Megalomania Has No Limit.” Survivors from the Mille Collines came forward to accuse Mr. Rusesabagina of exaggerating his role, and even profiting from the genocide. A government official published a book that purported to tell Hotel Rwanda’s “real story.”
Mr. Rusesabagina had some influential backers. In early 2006 Alison Des Forges, a noted scholar on the genocide, conducted a review of “An Ordinary Man” for his publisher, Penguin.
Mr. Rusesabagina’s account was “true to what I have witnessed and experienced in this complicated society,” Ms. Des Forges wrote in a confidential letter seen by The Times.
The Rwandan government intensified its campaign. In 2007, at a forum in Chicago, Rwanda’s ambassador to the United States accused Mr. Rusesabagina of financing rebel groups in eastern Congo.
In Brussels, Mr. Rusesabagina began to feel unsafe. Intruders broke into his home twice, his children said, rifling drawers and stealing documents. When a car drove him off the road, he took it as an assassination attempt, they said.
In 2009, Mr. Rusesabagina and his wife moved to a gated community in San Antonio, Texas, near the home of an ally — Bob Krueger, a former United States Senator and ambassador to Burundi, whom he had befriended.
“He delivered himself here,” said Rwanda’s spy chief, Brig. Gen. Joseph Nzabamwita, with a smile. “Quite a wonderful operation.”
If that operation was straight out of the Kagame playbook — dissidents say a private jet flew another opposition leader from the Comoro Islands to Rwanda last year — the nature of the bait used to entrap Rwanda’s latest victim was unclear.
General Nzabamwita dismissed any suggestion of illegality because, he said, the United States and Belgium had been cooperating with his investigation all along. In fact, he added, the head of Belgian intelligence and the C.I.A. station chief in Kigali had personally congratulated him on the arrest.
“They were only surprised how we could conduct such an operation, and very successfully,” he said.
American and Belgian officials denied the general’s assertion. In an email, a spokesman for Belgium’s SGRS intelligence service said its head, Claude Van de Voorde, had “NEVER congratulated the Rwandan authorities” on the arrest.
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Rwanda, 1994.Credit...David Turnley/Corbis/VCG, via Getty Image
Africa
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12-million The estimated number of South Africans who have “probably” been infected with Covid-19, according to the health minister. This is about 20% of the 58-million population. @thecontinent_
Africa
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Chad Asks to Suspend Payments on Glencore Oil-Backed Loan @markets .
Africa
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Chad has asked Glencore Plc to suspend payments on its oil-for-cash loan this year, a move that could prove a precedent for private creditors worried about being dragged into a global debt-relief push for poor countries.
After securing a $61 million debt waiver in June, sponsored by the Group of 20, the central African nation sent a letter to the world’s biggest commodity trader and other private lenders, asking them to allow debt freezes, according to two people familiar with the matter. This would suspend over $100 million in payments in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The G-20 launched the Debt Service Suspension Initiative in April, a program aimed at helping countries hit hard by the pandemic by waiving billions of dollars in repayments until the end of the year. Bondholders and banks have so far resisted G-20 calls to join creditor governments in the freeze, citing legal obligations.
The vast majority of the 73 eligible borrowers didn’t contact private creditors asking for a freeze on repayments for fear it could halt future access to financing. Chad, a landlocked country in the southern fringes of the Sahara, and the tiny Caribbean island of Grenada both applied for the relief.
The two nations have asked for comparable terms from private lenders, according to a July 14 document seen by Bloomberg which was prepared by the World Bank and the IMF. Grenada asked bondholders for a payment freeze in May but backtracked shortly afterward.
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02-MAR-2020 :: Balance Sheets are maxed out
Africa
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#Ghana looks like it will be another sub-Saharan growth story in 2020 - Frontier economies that went with brief (3 weeks in Ghana) or light lockdowns - look like they will be among the best performers in the world in 2020 @RencapMan
Africa
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#Ghana looks like it will be another sub-Saharan growth story in 2020 - along with Kenya. Frontier economies that went with brief (3 weeks in Ghana) or light lockdowns - look like they will be among the best performers in the world in 2020 - and at low health cost
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Rwanda’s #GDP decreased by 12.4% in the Second Quarter of 2020, @statisticsRW has announced. @rbarwanda
Africa
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#COVID19 and SSA and the R Word
Africa
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg
Africa
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Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 16.2794
World Currencies
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Egypt Pound versus The Dollar Chart INO 15.72
World Currencies
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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg
Africa
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Elephant strolling past the Chilojo Cliffs, Gonarezhou, Zimbabwe @zimlocals
Africa
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Chilojo Cliffs, Gonarezhou, Zimbabwe @zimlocals
Africa
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Tourism Performance August 2020, number of international arrivals came in at 13,894 for the month of August, 91.4% lower than the 161,723 arrivals recorded during the same period last year @CytonnInvest
Tourism, Travel & Transport
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Kenya 10-year and 30-year Eurobonds at 6.7% and 8.0%, respectively @CytonnInvest
Kenyan Bonds - Long Term
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2019 dual-tranche Eurobond issue with 7-year at 6.5%, and 12-year Eurobond at 7.4% @CytonnInvest
Kenyan Bonds - Long Term
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy
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YTD basis the shilling has depreciated by 7.0% against the dollar
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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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The @NSE_PLC is currently trading at a price to earnings ratio (P/E) of 9.5 and average dividend yield is currently at 5.0% @CytonnInvest
N.S.E General
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Kenyan banks’ non-performing loans ratio is projected to rise to almost 14% by end of the year with small businesses at the greatest risk of default. - @BD_Africa @mmnjug
Kenyan Economy
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The top seven lenders listed on the @NSE_PLC set aside Sh31.7B in the half-year ended June for the expected increase in bad loans. @mmnjug
N.S.E General
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Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg
N.S.E General
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.@NSE_PLC YTD performance to losses of 15.7%, 21.0%, and 30.4%, for NASI, NSE 25 and NSE 20, respectively. @CytonnInvest
N.S.E General
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Every Listed Share Can Be Interrogated Here
N.S.E General
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